I am very anxious to see the sheets for the Travers

[covelj70]

Now that Rachael is out, I would assume that Quality Road will be a pretty heavy favorite.

However, a) he has a history of reacting at least a bit to big efforts and while I haven\'t seen the number for the Amsterdam, it\'s safe to say it was a big effort given he smashed the track record and he went 7 wide in the process, and b) it\'s tough to feel completely comfortable with him getting the distance given only one 6.5f race in 5 months.  Tough to get ready to go that far off of breezes alone.

He\'s clearly a special animal, I think the best of this 3 year old COLT crop by far but I think there\'s plenty of reasons to play against him as the favovite on Sat.

I think it\'s pretty wide open after QR.  

Charitable Man will likely be overbet again but he\'s never won around two turns and he seems rather one paced so I think he\'s a throw out in the exotics. Maybe the rider change will make a difference with CM but I will not be taking what will likely be short odds to find out.

Kensei will be heavily backed based on the Dywer and Jim Dandy wins and the connections putting him in here instead of Rachael but he didn\'t beat anything in the Jim Dandy and sat a perfect trip off of easy fractions that day and I am not 100% convinced he wants the added distance so I think he can be played against as well.

We need to see the sheets before we can see who else might have a shot but I can tell you right now that there\'s no way I am leaving a Zito horse in a big race that\'s flying under the radar who has one 3 in a row and who could be alone on the lead off of my tickets.  He\'s beaten me too many times in this situation to let that happen again.  the definition of stupidity is doing the same thing and expecting a different result...that\'s my and leaving Zito off of my tickets in these big races where I think the favorites are vulnerable.  Won\'t happen again to me this year....I am dumb but not THAT dumb.

[TGJB]

With all the horses they have to bet and where he\'s been finishing, what makes you think CM will be shorter than 6-8 to one? QR, MTB and Kensai have to be shorter, SB may be too.

[covelj70]

well, I am no expert in setting morning lines, that\'s for sure (I proved that by predicting that CM would be short odds in the Belmont) but the New York crew loves to play Kirian and I think the rider change and the big works will get alot of attention, as will Kirian\'s comments about the Travers being the goal all along.

Chances are I am getting off this horse at just the wrong time after backing him all spring and I would assume he probably ran about another \"0\" in the Jim Dandy so the numbers, pattern and spacing all look pretty good for him but he just doesn\'t have the turn of foot that I think it takes to win these big races and I am guessing (but could of course be wrong) that he will be shorter than he should be.

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

I think you are way off base here with your comment on Charitable Man being short odds.

I agree with you about Quality Road 100%.  Great horse, best 3 year old colt, but going from 6 furlongs to 1 1/4 mile is a big jump up.  I also think the pace of the race will be a bit of a disadvantage to him.  He wants to be on or near the lead.  The Zito horse wants the lead.  Kensei wants to be near the lead.  Alan Garcia got fired from Charitable Man because for two races in a row in which he looked like the controlling speed, he somehow got a 3 wide trip and indecisive start.  I am pretty sure Ramon leaves with the horse.  

As for the odds, i will take a first guess here.

9-5 on Quality Road
7-2 on Kensei
4-1 on Mine that Bird
6-1 no Summer Bird
10-1 on Charitable Man
12-1 on Warrior\'s Reward
20-1 on the Zito hrose

I want to see the sheets, but assuming I am getting double digit odds, i am going with Warrior\'s Reward in here as my key.  I believe his win over Munnings in the Churchill Downs race was one of the fastest non-Rachel, non-Quality Road 3 year old wins this year.  I know so far TGJB looks correct on his slowish number for that race, compared to the 116 beyer fig that Warrior\'s Reward, but I will take on more chance that Warrior\'s Reward can run big here.  I am guessing his Jim Dandy fig is likely slowish on TG based on the rail trip, but I believe he got an old fashioned harness \"speed tightener\".  This horse is not a frontrunner and was pushed to be on the lead.  i will buy into the \"trainer speak\" where Wilkes has said that the horse was not focused and they wanted to give him a \"hard race\" in the Jim Dandy to get him ready for the Travers, so they put him into the race early.  he ran \"ok\", holding second.  Wilkes is a Nafzger disciple and I am guessing/hoping that he got some of Nafzger\'s ability to point a horse to a race.  (see Unbridled, Street Sense, etc.etc).  This time Warrior\'s Reward sits off the relatively fast pace, saving ground on the rail and gets up late over Quality Road who puts away all the frontrunners, but just gets caught late in a game effort....

Jim

[Lost Cause]

Anyone feel that maybe Mine that bird runs better after the surgery.  He and Summer Bird are the only non - question marks at the distance.

[miff]

Lost,

Raggies have MTB \"worn out\" from the triple crown campaign. That operation is very easy and some horses come back very quickly from it, with no ill effects.

Summer Bird, thought to be a slug by me before his last, was given one of those Kent D weird rides kinda pressing along the inside in the Haskell. Think he\'s better than he looks and dangerous with one late run.

Conventional wisdom has QR conditioning short off one sprint.I don\'t necessarily believe that and he\'s training gigantic in the morning.From winter until now he seems to be the only one allowed to move forward given the ability he showed early on and he\'s already faster.

His 1 and 1/8th win at GP attending a fast pace and then holding off a huge move  by Dunkirk makes him a possible special horse.

Good luck

Mike

[Michael D.]

I\'ll be surprised if that\'s the price Jim, but CM offers some value if he\'s 10-1. You have the ground loss angle vs Kensei in the JDandy, and the long run to the first turn might allow this guy to get into that powerful one-paced stride. 10f the issue, but he was doing ok at the end last.

[jimbo66]

Michael,

They can\'t bet everybody.  Shoot, Hold Me BAck could even take a few bucks.  He can\'t be 30-1.  

I have been a Charitable Man, but I can\'t help but feel the buried wide I am sure he got in the Jim Dandy is a \"weak\" wide figure.  I don\'t know that he was going well at the end.  To me he was going OK, maybe.

It just looks like a great betting race to me.  I can make a case for any of the top 6 choices.

[Michael D.]

QR over CM and SB.

If they\'re coming from out of the clouds, I could make a case for SB on top, but NYRA has had that surface super quick on the big days, and I\'m expecting similar tomorrow.

[Wrongly]

Looking forward to the card.  At quick glance I\'m wondering why Coca Beach is going back on the turf?  Sure she\'s been good on all surfaces but why turf now when the BC is just around the corner.  Think she\'s one I\'ll be playing against on Saturday.