TG vs Rags for Jim Dandy

[covelj70]

Very interesting to me in that there are apparently some huge discrepancies in the TG\'s vs. the Rag sheets for the Jim Dandy that may be creating a very interesting betting opportunity in the race.

Now, I have never looked at a rag sheet so I am getting this all second hand but I have been told by enough people up here this week the same story so I believe.

The story is this.  On the Rags, apparently, Flat Bold and Charitable Man ran the same rags numbers in their last races and the rag number that charitable man got for the Belmont is considerably slower than the equivalent TG number.

I was told they both got a \"6\" on the rags in their last races.  Now, I have never given away any of Jerry\'s data in a post and I wont\' start now but let\'s just say that his TG number and pattern look alot healthier than what is implied in that rag number (again assuming I am getting good info).  On the TG\'s, I think Charitable Man is a clear standout, others may feel differently.

The key point here is this.  Kirian (who is a rag user) and his barn are telling anyone that is on the grounds that Flat Bold is a better play in the Jim Dandy than Charitable Man.  I was speaking with them yesterday morning on the backstretch and I asked about Charitable Man and I was told in so many words that Flat Bold is the one you want to play and the reason I got is that Flat Bold\'s last race was as fast as CM and that Flat Bold is doing very well training.  Anyone who is getting info from the barn will try to play against CM (whether using Flat Bold or others) based on what I think is bad information as FB\'s TG numbers aren\'t competitive.

I think this raises a point that Jerry has made many times.  It\'s not necessarily the handicapping skills of the two camps that makes the difference, it\'s the quality of the data that is being used to do the handicapping.  

Let\'s see where the odds are and what happens in the race but I think there\'s a chance that CM goes off higher than we think b/c of messages coming from the trainer based on what may be bad data.  I saw Charitable Man gallop yesterday and other than being high strung, there wasn\'t anything physically that would cause you to say the horse isn\'t ready to run his race.

BTW, I know what Kirian said in the DRF about CM but trust me, that\'s not the message the barn is sending on the grounds which is what drives alot of the betting.  For example, the barn was very hot on Trappe Shot, the maiden who ran on opening day and that one went off as the favorite in a tough MSW.  

Now, maybe there is really something going on with CM and he\'s not going to run his race but I think I might be getting paid enough to find out.  

Look forward to seeing everyone at the Seminar tomorrow.

[miff]

Cov,

Don\'t recall if you were around but I raised this issue of the sometimes enormous difference between TG and RAGS on several occasions going back. Studied the differences pretty carefully for some time and came to some conclusions about why. It\'s more than split/averaging variants,on occasion there is little \"racing common sense\" to some figs.Whatever works for you is the way to go.Remember it\'s an art not science.If they froze figs(like blood samples now) it would be interesting to review certain frozen figs if science solved that puzzle.

Re CM, I consider his Belmont race at 1 @1/2 miles irrelevant to any\"pattern\"reading. Why would you even consider a race at that distance with that weight? How many 3yr olds really run their race going that far with that impost?

CM\'s Peter Pan is what he needs to move forward to win here. Flat Bold(seen him race many times) needs to step up imo,with Ramon, possible if they really like him.

Kensei training gangbusters but never been two turns.

Re \"info\" coming from Kiarans barn last few weeks and early SPA meet, like 0-7 and the winner he had on opening day, he did not like! Go figure.

Good Luck

Mike

[Michael D.]

Jim,

CM ran a :27+ final 1/4 in the mile and a half Belmont while getting checked out of it late. that race has absolutely nothing to do with a 1 1/16 race.

I\'m leaning towards CM in the JimD, but I think he\'s going to be the big fave, so I\'ll probably pass. really just rooting for CM, RA, SB, MTB, and QR to all run well this w/e (QR on Mon) so we get a fantastic Travers, as I can\'t come up with a decent play in any of the races.

off the turf today except for the stakes. NYRA has been good about posting that stuff at around 7 am.

if they\'re on the turf tomorrow, I\'ll see you, Richie, Jim, Tony, Alan and the rest at the seminar. otherwise, I\'ll be in LRD.

[covelj70]

good stuff, thanks boys

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Very interesting stuff.  I think the Jim Dandy is even trickier than you suggest.  I have a hard time believing that Flat Bold\'s last race is as good as Charitable Man\'s.  And I would bet that TGJB got it right on Flat Bold.  But the tricky part (at least to me) is that TGJB got it wrong on Warrior\'s Reward in the May race at Churchill (and maybe very wrong).  Both Beyer and Rags have that race much faster and looking at some of the horses to run coming out of that race have run, it looks to me that Beyer and Rags got it right.  I know that TGJB looked at the race again, when I questioned him, but I got enough private messages and emails after that post to know that I don\'t stand alone with this opinion.  

But even if you say that TGJB is right, Warrior\'s Reward gets 6 lbs from Charitable Man, which makes him just about as fast.  I like Kiaran 2nd off the layoff better than off the layoff, and when you factor in \"trainer intent\", I think Warrior\'s REward is the right play (especially if Charitable Man is the favorite).  Kiaran is pointing to the Travers since the Belmont.  Wilkes, while he certainly wants the Travers, has been talking about how he knows he has a good horse, but he is tired of making excuses for his horse (lone speed against him two races back, stumbled last time at the start).  I expect Warrior\'s Reward to be cranked and ready to roll.   I also think the pace will be fast, as ASmussuen\'s horse ahs been a bit rank in his workouts according to a few reports and will be 1st time two turns.  The rail horse has speed and you know Charitable Man will be forwardly placed.  Expect Borel to be off a fast pace, hugging the rail, saving ground, as always.

Now, if you believe that Churchill race is faster, like I do, let\'s say by a couple points.  You have the fastest horse in the race, weight adjusted, with 12 weeks since the top and what may be a good race set up.

I say 3-1 on Warrior\'s Reward would be very fair and would make him solid single in the pick-4.  If you believe that the 123 pounds and 10 post for Forever Together make her vulnerable as the heavy favorite, singling Warrior\'s Reward will give you a chance to go deep in the Diana and get some value in the late pick-4.

Of course, if you have read any of my handicapping posts over the past few months, then you know you should completely discount everything I just wrote.......

Good luck.

Jim

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

I like these thoughts alot.  I will use both WR and CM in the big pk 4 and I will be trying to beat the big filly in the Diana.  She doesn\'t like the soft going and it\'s a bog up here right now.

thanks as always