Miff - where are you?

colt · July 23, 2009, 12:55:10 PM

I hope this is not too way-off the list of handicapping topics, but I haven\'t seen Miff on here for several weeks now. Always enjoyed reading his posts especially topics that touched on the NYRA circuit. Anyone knows if he is still around?

TGJB · July 23, 2009, 01:25:30 PM

I deleted one of Miff\'s posts and he hasn\'t been seen since, which doesn\'t make me happy either, even though we\'ve had some arguments. Awfully thin skinned for a New Yorker, Mike. Come on home.

covelj70 · July 23, 2009, 01:59:42 PM

I\'ll throw my 2 cents in if it helps to get Miff back on the board.

Dude, we love you. You crush me sometimes with your posts but I love it. Get back involved, not the same without you my man!

BB · July 23, 2009, 02:51:33 PM

Agreed. Your friends in the animal loon community want you back, Mike! Your input here is sorely missed. Seriously! - Bob

dannyboy135 · July 23, 2009, 05:59:05 PM

Miff, count me in as well. Love to see your analytical post. Jerry gets under my skin from time to time as well, especially when it comes to knocking Len. Like the golfer chad cambell says guys that are good don\'t have to brag they let their actions speak.

come on back
dannnyboy

miff · July 23, 2009, 06:38:26 PM

Alive and well,being head bobbed by one slow rat or another for decent scores... same old,same old.

Jerry took me down,a horrible DQ,imo,re the drug thing. In my post,I should have stated that I discussed the subject of Clenbuterol with Dr. George Maylin(New York State Testing Czar and a leader in the field for many years)What he stated was quite different from what was posted here about the testing for and effect of Clenbuterol on horses.

JB, you should know my skin is Brooklyn thick, just rather not get into pissing contest.

Mike

covelj70 · July 23, 2009, 06:46:15 PM

there he is.

good to have you back my man!

The buzz heading into the spa wouldn\'t be the same without you.

best month of the year coming up, we need you buddy.

NoCarolinaTony · July 23, 2009, 07:54:01 PM

Hey Miff, I\'ve been lurking myself....working too much, ....but the summer is here and didn\'t realize you were gone. You need to keep posting man. We need debate in this country and on this board. Makes the world a better place.

NC Tony

marcus · July 24, 2009, 09:54:27 AM

I thought perhaps miff had taken a ride down to copper canyon on his Harley with kid rock to escape the mets and \"sh*tty\" field this summer . miffs comments are always a viable component in the many debates on the board imo and are conspicuous in absense . . .

TGJB · July 24, 2009, 11:26:28 AM

I didn\'t take it down because of anything to do with Clenbuterol. I took it down because a lot of serious people are doing serious work in a seriously screwed up and frustrating environment to solve a serious problem, and suggesting that someone is on the JC committee just because they don\'t understand why their well bred horses are losing is a bit insulting. There\'s is actual science being discussed, the conversations are at a pretty high level.

Regardless, welcome back, Staten Island. We should be able to find some things to get into it over.

TGJB · July 24, 2009, 11:31:34 AM

Oh Danny Boy-- does Len get under your skin when he makes a general accusation that I\'m a liar without offering any evidence to back it up, as he has, oh, maybe ten times?

dannyboy135 · July 25, 2009, 05:50:30 AM

I haven\'t seen such an accusation but I\'m sure it would. quite frankly, I don\'t visit the Ragozin message board. I had used the rags for years until one day they were sold out at the FGs. I bought your product and have been using it for the last 3 years.

apologize for digging a bit. Len has been very fair with me. I don\'t need to get in the middle. all the best.

miff · July 26, 2009, 06:44:27 AM

Can\'t resist. Yesterday, I was trading notes with Raggie Richie on the Coaching Club at Belmont,9TH race!

TG has Funny Moons last race at 3.

Beyer has Funny Moon\'s last race equal to a TG 4-ish.

Rags has Funny Moons last at 15,a figure equal to a TG 11.I did not see the Rags sheets myself.

If that is not an input error and Raggie Richie was not tanked up on Rags Kool Aid, they should be embarrassed and give everyone their $35 back!

Mike

TGJB · July 26, 2009, 11:12:56 AM

Miff-- without even seeing it, I can tell you it\'s not an input error. What it is is a perfect example of the differences in TG /Ragozin METHODOLOGY, independent of result.

As I have said here before, Ragozin is process oriented-- if you follow the process the figure is by definition correct, however it might come out. They use what amounts to an average track speed for the day, they assume it stays the same if there is no rain, snow, freeze or thaw (per Ragozin\'s book), and they have rules for how much you can adjust track speed race to race even if conditions change (i.e. no more than 2 points from the previous race).

On July 3rd at Belmont, there was moisture in the track (track good), and the track started getting slower after the third, presumably because it was drying-- but whatever the cause, it was clear from the horses (how fast they ran) that it was slowing, unless you simply assume it can\'t be changing.

After the seventh (grass) it rained, and they sealed the track. Now, those with REALLY long memories will remember that the first real website dustup between me and Len F came over the Fupeg Wood Memorial day, where exactly the same thing happened. Ragozin lumped the sealed wet races together with the dry track races, I said that was silly, there was no logical basis for it. The same thing happened here. I broke out the eigth, taking off a lot (about 8 points) from the surrounding races-- it was instantly clear you could not do the race at the same variant (see attachment).

So when you look at the sheets for this race-- and you will see I did not even give out good figures-- think about what it would look like if you added 8 points to each horse. Again, by their definition, Ragozin\'s figure is right-- they followed process to get there, which is to say they in effect used an average variant for the day. My guess is that will also result in horses from the second and third races coming up too fast, as well.

miff · July 26, 2009, 11:47:48 AM

\"As I have said here before, Ragozin is process oriented-- if you follow the process the figure is by definition correct, however it might come out\"

JB,

...by any process/method, that figure of Rag 15 (= a TG 11) for that horse is wrong, period! If their methodology is such, figures in those instances are pure garbage.

NW2 Allowance, 3 yr old/up filly types never win races in NY with a TG 11/Beyer 70. Almost impossible!

Mike