A Different Laurel 2/22 Question

[JimP]

I\'m interested in how you read the MCM pattern.

I wasn\'t able to see your analysis for the race on 2/22. What did you expect from MCM going into that race? Last year he worked his way up nicely to a 1 then backed off a little and started working his way back up to a 0. At that point he bounced to an 8. What odds did you give on him getting back to a new top immediately (as he apparently did)? Was it more reasonable to expect that he needed more time to work his way back to a new top?

Now that has run the significant new top, what do you expect going forward? Looks like he would have to be played for a big bounce now. Is that how you read it? Or is there something to be seen in that quick return to the top to make you think he can stay at this level?

Or was that 8 not really a bounce at all? Did he just not like the track or the cross-country ship? Should we just disregard that 8 and read his pattern independent of it? Could it have been read that way going into the 2/22 race? Can it be read that way now? It seems that any reading one could have made going into the 2/22 race and any expectation one might have now, all depends on how one views that single race at SA on 12/26. Where do you start in determining how to handle that race?

[bdhsheets]

JimP wrote:

> I\'m interested in how you read the MCM pattern.
 
> Or was that 8 not really a bounce at all? Did he just not
> like the track or the cross-country ship?

Could have been a combination of both off a new top & short rest.


Should we just
> disregard that 8 and read his pattern independent of it? Could
> it have been read that way going into the 2/22 race? Can it be
> read that way now? It seems that any reading one could have
> made going into the 2/22 race and any expectation one might
> have now, all depends on how one views that single race at SA
> on 12/26. Where do you start in determining how to handle that
> race?

I\'d ignore the race. It also helps to know your trainers. Scott Lake performs magic tricks with his horses and I wouldn\'t be looking at a big bounce at all. MCM will be a short price next out. If he ran a minus 2 and all he needs is a zero to win his next, I\'d pass the race and wouldn\'t try to beat him.

[TGJB]

We didn\'t do an analysis for the race. I keyed a longshot, using the winner heavily, and didn\'t cash. You can throw out the 8-- almost no one can ship East- West in winter and run well.

There is no way to assess the pattern of this horse independent of being a Scott Lake trainee. Which, unfortunately, is becoming true of more and more horses and trainers.