Suburban

[Michael D.]

1. Finally - don\'t like him at the distance

2. Dry Martini - TP not good, but a ground saving run in the \'0.5\' range under 116 lbs is competitive

3. It\'s A Bird - could run another negative \'1.5\', which is strong here. 121 lbs and low odds the issues

4. A Boy - contender, but gets killed with the weights

5. Stud Muffin - a bit slow going in, but has a pair of 1\'s last year, and these Raffie M\'s get stronger at 4 and 5. excuses last 2. a good trip \'0\' is competitive at 114 lbs, and the odds will be long

6. Rising Moon - looking for a \'1\'

7. Real Merchant - strong # power with negative runs going 9f over the inner and 1m at Bel. will he get the 10f at Bel?

8. Cool Coal Man - has bounced badly off fast figures in the past

9. Ready\'s - looking for a run in the \'1\' range or a touch faster. trip is going to be the issue here

10. Samhoon - new top last cutting back. dangerous if he breaks free, but the distance is an issue


A number of these could win it, but I\'ll be keying Stud Muffin at long odds.

Happy 4th Folks!

[richiebee]

Modesty prevented Michael D from prefacing his selections by noting that he (and
Jimbo Double X) tabbed Frost Giant, Rudy Rodriquez in the irons, to win last
years Suburban. For those with short memories, FG was 12/1 ML and ended up in
the winners circle at 40/1.

This years Suburban is the 3rd leg of a 350K added P4. The first 2 legs are
Graded stakes for 3YO colts (Dwyer) and fillies (Prioress).

The Dwyer features ML favorites Warrior\'s Reward with Borel and Just Ben with
Raji Maragh. Warrior\'s Reward is coming off a close second in the Northern
Dancer at 4/5 in a race where he wore front wraps for the first time;he has
kept company with top 3YOs Dunkirk, Musket Man and Munnings. WR is by hot sire
Medaglia D\'oro.

Just Bounce, er Ben is coming out of a tres gran vitesse performance on
Belmont Stakes Day, winning by 13 lengths. Johnny Velasquez rode him that day,
ends up on Pletcher\'s Masala in this race. First time past a mile for this son
of Speightstown who could have a bit of a pace advantage.

While a lot of these colts have promise, it must be noted that there is not a
single stakes winner in this G2.

The field in the G1 Prioress has a little more quality,with the 9 runners
having 9 stakes wins among them. In this race I like On the Menu, ML 6/1 and
arguably the fastest in the race off her TG #s. She sits in the outside stall
of the starting gate and has a lot of speed drawn inside of her. Ridden by
underrated Jeremy Rose and saddled by Larry Jones,who has very good
numbers \"last 90 days\"; according to DRF, \"the Cowboy\" has saddled
22 winners in 67 graded stakes starts.

There are some intriguing longshots in the Suburban. Michael says he will be
keying Stud Muffin, who is 30/1 ML; also interesting to note that Stud Muffin
is a key selection (on the bottom, so to speak) of the Chief Rag Man. SM posted
his best lifetime TGs over at Belmont, whereas the favorites, Its A Bird and
Asiatic Boy, have never raced here. I like two 15/1 ML runners in here, Real
Merchant and Ready\'s Echo.

Part of what intrigues me about RE is that with his pedigree (More Than Ready/
Kingmambo mare) TAP has not given RE more opportunities on the lawn. TG sire
stats, however, reveal that slightly more than 1/2 of More Than Ready\'s stakes
wins as a sire have come on the dirt.

Race 11 finishes the sequence, maidens on the lawn in a battle of high profile
stallions: There are 3 Dynaformers, 3 Unbridled Songs and 2 El Prados here, but
my selection is sired by Elusive Quality. Fenomeno (12/1) is out of Farda Amiga,
long priced winner of the 2002 Kentucky Oaks; she is nearly as fast TG wise as
the 2 runners in the 7/5 Clement entry.

Best of luck to all.  I plan on celebrating Independence (if I can get my
wife\'s permission).

[Wrongly]

Calvin on the morning line fav is my new bet against, the general public just loads up on him.  That said I think American Dance 8/1 morning line and to lesser extent Convocation 5/1 morning line both offer good value.  Calvin is the new bet against.

Richeebee - loved your comment of Crist blog!

[Michael D.]

Richie, modesty is required when selecting a 30-1 five yr old NY bred, who needs the race of his life I might add, in the grade 1 Suburban. SM is not as good as these, but he gets a lot of weight vs the 2 favorites, and the trip is a risk for just about all of them.

Good luck with the pk4.