The Two Sides Of The House I Can See Are White

[TGJB]

Some of you may recall the discussions on this site about track speed changing from day to day, race to race, and from one part of the track to another. Well, a few weeks ago David Grening wrote an article in DRF where he discussed percentages of moisture content in the NYRA tracks, which seemed like something I should know more about, so I gave David a call. He suggested I give NYRA track superintendent Jerry Porcelli a call, which I did, and he really knows what he is doing. I just got off the phone with him, and my head is spinning.

About 5 years ago, it turns out, Mr. Porcelli decided it would be interesting to see whether if by quantifying moisture content he could establish correlation with track designations (fast, good, etc). He  determines moisture content by taking a piece of the track, weighing it, baking it, and seeing how much the weight changes. Some of Mr. Porcelli\'s comments:

1- A \"fast\" track in NY can have anywhere from 3 to 12 (!!!) per cent water in it.

2- \"Good\" is generally from slightly above 12 to just under14%, \"Muddy\" from 14 to about 16, \"Sloppy\" from 17 on up.

3- Moisture content is not constant from day to day, even without intervening weather \"events\"-- there was rain over the weekend, and they didn\'t race yesterday (Monday), but he measured the moisture at 17%, today at 15, and he expects to start tomorrow at about 13.

4- Despite the addition of water, he figures he will lose about 1% over the course of the card  tomorrow to end up at about 12%. The amount changes depending on wind, temperature, and cloud cover-- less an issue this time of year than in July, which he used as an example of when moisture content would be more variable.

5- Different parts of the track are wetter than others-- he used Belmont as an example, saying the backstretch is always much wetter than the homestretch. He thinks possible causes are shade from the trees that line the backstretch, and wind currents around the grandstand.

6- Here\'s one I didn\'t think of-- speed of the tractor spreading the water is variable, while the water flows at a steady pace. Mr. Porcelli says the tractors move slowly when they start out, then pick up speed, causing more water to be dumped at some places than others. Also, some parts of the track aren\'t watered by the tractors, but by smaller water trucks. This is much more of an issue at smaller tracks with smaller chutes, which additionally may receive other differences in maintenance.

7- All of the above is variable to the differences in soil composition at the different NYRA tracks, as well as those elsewhere. One track may get faster with moisture, others may get slower.

The upshot is this-- despite best efforts by competent humans to keep moisture content constant, there are so many uncontrollable variables that it can\'t be done. Which means that so-called \"objective\" figures, which make ASSUMPTIONS about track speed not changing and races run over different parts of the track being run over the same surface, are really just averaging apples and oranges.

[Alydar in California]

JB wrote: \"The Two Sides Of The House I Can See Are White\"

Please tell me you see the problem with your wording.

[TGJB]

Ah, one of the \"please tell me\" posts. No idea what you are talking about, don\'t care, but will address it if you make it clear and if it is relevant, as I made clear when I outlined our new board policy. Took down your other post as it was just a string of Soupish wise cracks.

[Alydar in California]

JB wrote:

\"No idea what you are talking about, don\'t care, but will address it if you make it clear and if it is relevant,\"

Sure. You wrote: \"The Two Sides Of The House I Can See Are White\"

You are saying three things: 1: You can see exactly one house. 2: It has two sides. 3: Both sides are white.

Read it this way: \"The two sides of THE HOUSE I CAN SEE are white.\" You destroyed the point of Heinlein\'s story. Or did you assume we would know what you meant?

\"Took down your other post as it was just a string of Soupish wise cracks.\"

I don\'t believe you. You deleted my last six posts, including one in which I thanked bj, and several in which I cashed in an old favor to get Soup to stop bothering you and the other people here. He never bothered me.

Why did you leave this up? From Kraven the Hunter:

 \"And he never will because he pulled that figure out of his ass. Nor did any Ragozin fans challenge my last post.
Better to keep your mouth shut and have everybody think you\'re a fool than to open it and remove all doubt.\"

  while deleting my reply to this idiot?

  You keep claiming you want to have serious debates about TG/Rags methodology and ethics. For the third time (you deleted one), I am offering to give you a serious debate on every aspect of these arguments, from Chilukki\'s debut to split variants, from lying to customers to changing figures months after the fact. Or would you prefer to strut around pretending to be king of the jungle while ducking challenges, deleting serious posts, and leaving up obsequious idiocy from Kraven the Hunter and Silver Charm?

[HP]

Alydar is right. This from Marc At is an excellent idea.

\"idea for you-- why not set up a separate section of the site for posts like your Jerry Porcelli report (an interesting read, by the way)? Whether it\'s that one or the ones that more explicitly zing Ragozin that you\'ve felt the need to re-post, a separate section devoted to these posts might be a little more helpful to those who are interested, as opposed to the clumsiness of re-posting all the time...\"

You can\'t really say this is a bulletin board if you\'re going to remove everyone\'s posts because you\'ve decided that what you have to say is more important. That\'s really not how bulletin boards are supposed to work. The SHEETS website doesn\'t really have a bulletin board either; it\'s more like an advertising or one-way broadcasting venue. Hopefully you can use Marc At\'s idea to get the best of both worlds. HP

[TGJB]

1- You know exactly what the context of the Heinlen quote was, and what I meant-- that it is wrong to make unwarranted assumptions. Period. In this case, I was referring to the assumptions Ragozin makes tying independent parts of the track, events, and time periods together, AS YOU KNOW. Everything else is game playing, which I haven\'t got the time or inclination for, and which got some of your previous posts deleted, and will get more deleted.

2- I don\'t care whether you believe me. If you believe nothing else, believe that. And whether you believe the intent or not, in point of fact there was nothing in that post BUT wisecracks. I took other posts down for lack of significant (to me) content, because they were cluttering up the board and distracting everyone away from important issues (as I said in my post outlining the new board policy), and eating up my time on nonsense.

3- Kraven\'s comment, while rude, was on point-- I have left up lots of comments that were rude to me (some of which were yours) if they were on point. Friedman did pull that figure out of his ass, which is why after taking great pains to try and explain it he did the turtle imitation.

For the record, \"Kraven\" knows at least as much about figure making as you do.

4-I told you before-- knock yourself out. I will deal with them as I see fit, but any ON-POINT posts will be left up, at least the parts with content (as opposed to games and wisecracks), and at least (as I said) until it degenerates into a time consuming back and forth. You will be treated like anyone else on this board, where, since it\'s mine, I AM king of the jungle. And since you bring it up, in this context we are not equals, and I\'ve got the resume (65 SW etc.) and customer base to prove it. You\'re a guy posting on my board.

Speaking of ducking serious challenges (yeah, I\'m famous for that), say hello to your new friends for me, the ones who understand your frustration.

[Alydar in California]

JB,

At least have the decency to announce that you deleted my reply. \"Kraven\" indeed.

[TGJB]

As I made clear, I\'m not going to get sucked into any time consuming word games or other garbage, including this one. Since I also neither want those posts to stand unanswered nor have to explain every time why they are not, they will come down as soon as I see them. Anything of significance will be addressed, as it always is. And you know it.