early thoughts on Sat's stakes

[covelj70]

Thanks again to TG for getting the sheets up so quickly for Sat.

I really think ticket structure is going to be key for this pick 6 sequence.  There is a very clear cut sheet standout in all but one of the races (the Manhattan and even there this is one that makes alot of sense).  This is one case where how you structure the tickets is just as important as your handicapping.

I will be using a modified Steve Crist Pick 6 structure where you break down your choices for each race into A\'s, B\'s and C\'s and you essentially need either 4A\'s and 2B\'s or 5 A\'s and a B or a C to get home to get the pick 6.  There are as many as 29 combination or separate tickets that you need to bet and it\'s a huge pain in the xoxox logistically but my hit ratio on the pick 6 has gone way way up since I moved to this method a few years ago.

Anyway, in terms of the races themselves.  Here are my thoughts on the key horse and backups in each race:

6th - Fabulous Stike - He just absolutely towers over these from a TG perspective.  Benny the Bull is the only other fast one in the race but the connections have indicated he isn\'t fully cranked for this with the Smile Sprint at Calder being the main goal.  I will back up with Silver Edition, Two Step Salsa and Desert Key but if Fabulous Strike shows up, it\'s his.

7th - I think this is the most competitive race on the card IF Forever Together doesn\'t fire.  She doesn\'t tower over the field, especially with the weight she\'s giving up but she put up a good number off the shelf and if she improves at all 2nd time off the layoff, she\'s the obvious most likely winner.  However, this one gets tricky if she doesn\'t fire as it\'s wide open after her.  Captain\'s Lover is as fast as the rest of these and get\'s first time Lasix for Barry and the crew (Barry, any insight here? are we ready to fire?), I Lost My Choo is also fast but hates the soft going so if there is still moisture on the turf, she\'s a toss for me.  I will also backup with My Princess Jess who is pretty fast and who Cornelio seems to fit like a glove.  Caribean Sunset and Modern are both fast but I will play them to bounce second off the ship for Europe which we see so often and I don\'t think Diamondrella will have the same kind of kick going 1 mile as she does going shorter so I will play her to flatten out even though she\'s fast.

8th- This One\'s for Phil will be my key here as he\'s much faster than the others, even adjusting for the weight he\'s giving.  I will back up with the entry from Goldolphin, Munnings who paired his two year old top in his first start off the layoff which is healthy and with Hull who isn\'t fast enough yet but could pop forward.  He is very talented.

9th - Justwhistledixie is the key here with Funny Moon, Dream Play and Four Gifts as the backups.  Dixie is the fastest with a great pattern and her connections tell me she is ready to fire so she get the job done with the nice stalking trip she figures to get behind GGG (who will be on the lead) and Dream Play.  If Dixie isn\'t fully recovered from the foot bruise, then those other three stand out.

10th - Cosmonaut is my key in this race at a price (at least on the morning line).  He\'s as fast as anyone coming in, gets weight, should save alot of ground near the lead and is going second off a long layoff (although his history says he starts fast and just stays there so I don\'t know how big of a deal the 2nd off a layoff is for him).  I don\'t have alot of strong opinions in this one other than Cosmonaut.  Marsh Side has good numbers to run back to but he is coming back from Dubai which is always tough and his last two numbers suggest he may have lost a step.  Court Vision has a tendency to react to the big numbers which he ran last time so I think we can play him to bounce, Gio Ponti doesn\'t have the same kick going  1 1/4 as he does going a flat mile so I will play him to flatten out in the stretch.  I will use whichever of the entry that Julien is on as the guy is pure magic on the turf so either Champs Elysses or Zambezi Sun will be one of my backups (they can\'t both run given that he is named on both).  I will also use Lauro to improve second off the long layoff with big back numbers to run to and Cowboy Cal is in good from right now so I will use him in backups as well but he will have to work out a trip from the parking lot again like he did last time.

11th - Key is Charitable Man which I (and others) have been talking about for a month.  Backups for me will be Chocolate Candy, Summer Bird and Dunkirk for the reasons that everyone has already talked about.

I will structure the ticket(s) in this case so that 3 of my singles have to win.  If I get three of the keys home, then the backup horses can win the other 3 races and I would still get the 6.

Good luck to everyone, please let me know where you think I am off base so I can make any necessary adjustments.

[Lost Cause]

covelj70 Wrote:
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> 10th -
> don\'t have alot of strong opinions in this one
> other than Cosmonaut.  

...I looked through the race and the only strong opinion for my P4 and P6 was to throw out Cosmonaut.  I have seen this horse run a lot.  Against top class horses I would not trust him a step over 1 1/16th miles.

[flushedstraight]

Cov, if I had that ticket and was live going into the 11th with 3 keys already in, I\'d feel sooo much better for those 50 or so minutes if Mine That Bird was one of my backups. Sure, he\'s an underlay but it would be absolutely crushing to me if he killed my ticket and it was paying anything decent. I also don\'t think CM will be that much longer than MTB in the pick six pool, where all these alleged $2 MTB bettors wont be a factor. It\'s not like any of us know for sure the derby champ doesn\'t have another one in him, even if practically all of us it seems will take a shot at beating him.

Calvin: "He's ready. We're going to win. No questions asked."

Jerry: \"given the large amount of development, those last two tries have to represent strenuous efforts\"


gotta love this game... let\'s see what the horse says when asked

[covelj70]

Lost,

you wrote

\"Against top class horses I would not trust him a step over 1 1/16th miles.\"

Um, he won the grade 3 arlington handicap going 1 1/4 and he lost this same race 2 years ago by 3/4 of the a length to horses that were arguably better than what\'s in here.  He is as fast on TG\'s as anyone in here, he gets weight and should save alot of ground.  Also, he likes the soft turf which if it keeps raining here  like it did last night, is exactly what we are going to have.

He\'s a far far cry from as likely of a winner as the others in the sequence which I will key but I don\'t see throwing him out?

[covelj70]

agree with you that CM and MTB will be about even odds in the multirace pools so you bring up a very good point there.

I really don\'t like Choc Candy or Dunkirk that much but the board makes some compelling arguments for each of them.  I might have to choose between two out of those three b/c I promised myself after the Arkansas Derby that I wouldn\'t forget to include Summer Bird in the Belmont.

[Ill-bred]

The Manhattan

Absolutely loved a few of Court Vision\'s turf efforts last year, particularly the Hollywood Derby, but twice this year he has made bold pre-stretch moves and then hung terribly. The CD surface was funky last out, but I question if he\'s the same horse. Last chance.

I know Zambezi Sun has been a sucker horse so far in the U.S., but I could give him one more chance on the jock switch to Leparoux, among the best at getting horses to relax and finish, which could be the key with this one. Plus you get Champ Elysees too just in case.

Gio Ponti is the must use. He\'s fine at 10f and likes Belmont. He\'s my \'A\' selection in a race where it is tempting to spread.

Wesley is an interesting longshot.

Cosmonaut does love soft turf,but I believe he is a G2 animal.

Should be adequate pace in here, with Cosmonaut, Premuim Gold, Lauro, and Cowboy Cal all wanting to be on or near the lead, and I don\'t see any reason for Optimer to be in this race other than as a rabbit.

[covelj70]

thanks for the thoughts.

One thing though, Since Julien is named on both Frankel horses, only one of them can run, that\'s a NYRA thing so we know Frankel only intends to go with one of them.

I agree with you that Julien is in a league of his own on the turf so I will use whichever one they put in the race.  Guy has magic soft hands to get horses to relax.

[Lost Cause]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lost,
>
> you wrote
>
> \"Against top class horses I would not trust him a
> step over 1 1/16th miles.\"
>
> Um, he won the grade 3 arlington handicap going 1
> 1/4 and he lost this same race 2 years ago by 3/4
> of the a length to horses that were arguably
> better than what\'s in here.  He is as fast on TG\'s
> as anyone in here, he gets weight and should save
> alot of ground.  Also, he likes the soft turf
> which if it keeps raining here  like it did last
> night, is exactly what we are going to have.
>
> He\'s a far far cry from as likely of a winner as
> the others in the sequence which I will key but I
> don\'t see throwing him out?

Hey Cov,
When I said Top class I meant Grade 1 horses..I think he is not a 1 1/4 mile Grade 1 horses.  
I don\'t have the 2007 Manhattan chart in front of me but I think he cut 25 and 51 fractions that day.  I sort of remember because I played him that day.  He went on to quit that day and he won\'t run that slow Saturday and he is older.  Don\'t let me talk you off him, I\'m just saying I\'m not biting on that one as I know this horse enough not to bet him at that distance against Grade 1 types.

[NoCarolinaTony]

You got that right!!!

NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

Cov

FWIW....in 6 years and 33 starts, the horse Cosmonaut has never won back to back races, or any Graded stakes over a G3.Has finished in the money, but why would this horse all of a sudden pick this day to beat G1 types?

Had a nice career, but I\'d think twice about singling or keying Cosmo on top.

NC Tony

[imallin]

Do you guys think the non stakes turf races will remain on the turf? Should i handicap races 4 and 5 for main track? Thanks.

[covelj70]

supposed to rain again tomorrow pretty hard so I think only the stakes will be on the turf Friday and Sat.