Burning up the Donn or will Harlan take a Holiday?

[derby1592]

This looks like a playable race. Harlan\'s Holiday is the heavy favorite off his big win in last. The big effort combined with the weight and the post make him vulnerable (I think I remember saying something like that about Congaree not too long ago...).

I like Blue Burner. I usually don\'t like to bet a horse with so many other faster horses in the race but he has a very nice line and Mott is very good second off layoff and you have to figure he was pointed for this. A new top would not be a surprise and any improvement puts him right there. He runs well at GP and the pace is likely to be hot, which should setup his closing kick.

I also like Hero\'s tribute. He has a solid line, is pretty fast, draws a good post with tactical speed and is one of the few contenders not coming into the race on the heels of a big effort.

There are some other fast horses but none look pointed to a good effort in my estimation.

-Windsor Castle is very solid but coming off a big effort. Still he is a contender.

-Bonus Pack is another coming off big top and the post will hurt but he also has a shot.

-Puzzlement is similar to Blue Burner but slower going in and I think less likely to improve off his last. If he does improve, he has a chance.

-Request For Parole is a bit slow and the post hurts.

- Mr. John is ouchy and coming off a top and always reacts to tops. Does draw rail though.

- Free of Love is another coming off a top.

- St. Verre is coming off a big top and the pace will likely hurt.

- Keats is an another ouchy type coming off an effort and the pace will hurt.

I plan to key Blue Burner assuming he goes off near the morning line (Mott/Bailey may drive the price down) and use Hero\'s Tribute heavily with him in the gimmicks and toss HH and hope for the best.

Any other opinions out there? I am sure there are as this is an interesting, competitive race.

Good luck to all.

Chris

[kev]

KEATS at 12-1 I\'ll take him.

[Mall]

Wasn\'t it one of the Hollywood moguls who used to say that it was unwise to make them, especially if they involved future events?

Blue Burner certainly has the kind of pattern I look to play for a 2+ forward move if the odds are right(15-1 min in this spot imho) and everything else falls into place, but I can\'t use him on top at 8-1. I think the analysis got it right in saying that BB has a \"tendency\" to lose ground, as in wide in every race, including a 5.5 furlong race from the inside post, and even after the addition of blinkers. At the same time, I expect BB to improve & would use him in the exotics.

I disagree that Mr John always reacts to tops. He didn\'t react to the 7.5 & he didn\'t react to the 5.25, & he has always improved 2nd out, which I expect him to do again here at bettable odds. It also seems as though the addition of blinkers may have cured his previous tendency to drift & swerve in the stretch. Besides, he still owes me quite a bit of money from the 4/21/01 dq, so I\'m obligated to at least use him in exotics.

If he gets a decent trip, WC should run a number & is a strong win contender for Frank Alexander, an underrated horseman who should be in the Hall in my estimation. But as much as I like & respect Frank, & even though I think WC is the most likely winner, 5-1 seems awfully short on the win end in a race as competitive as this one, so I\'ll probably key him 1st & 2nd in exotics with the above two, with very little HH,as well as a lot more with an off the wall shot which I think has a legitimate chance to run a much improved number at odds which I think will be much higher than the 20-1ML.

Sure, Puzzlement is the slowest horse coming into the race. Sure, P needs to improve a lot to have a shot to even get a placing, but I don\'t see why he can\'t. He\'s very lightly raced, he\'s 2nd off a layoff, he\'s already won 2 of 3 at the distance, the pace scenario is okay, & his connections are solid. His pattern is similar to BB\'s, but his odds are going to be twice or more as high.

Best of luck to you as well Chris.

[derby1592]

Welcome back Mall.

I trust you returned from the tropics with a nice tan and a fat wallet.

I guess one can look at Mr. John\'s line two ways. On one hand, he always reacts to the 1.5 level while on the other hand he always improves second time after a layoff. Unfortunately, this time he goes second out after having run the 1.5 right off the bench. I think he ran his big race first time out this grouping but I can see the case for the other interpretation.

There are a lot of horses coming off big efforts in this race and more than likely one of them will come close to pairing up but I cannot tell which it will be. If I had to pick one of them, I would go with Windsor Castle (If I had one, Frank A. would get my vote for the Hall).

But instead of trying to guess which will pair-up, I would rather go with a horse that I think has a strong, potentially explosive line - Blue Burner. His overall line that includes a fast pair early 2 and a fast race early 3 and then equalling his 3yo top first out at 4 looks very strong to me. He may not be a real sound horse and he probably will not be around in the fall but he sure looks like he is sitting on a big race tomorrow. Note that he made a big move last year off a very similar line at GP. Unfortunately, I am not sure he will offer value given the connections and I may end up passing the race but 8-1 is good enough for me if the morning line holds up. Maybe with the large field and HH taking a lot of action I will get those odds.

As you noted, I think you can make a similar case for Puzzlement although I think he is a little weaker on just about all counts. However, his odds may be much more generous.

Should be one of those races that will be really easy to handicap AFTER the race is over...

Good luck.

Chris

[OPM]

Hello boys:
Best thing about this race is that fav. is very beatable.  I like 4 horses, Mr. John, W. Castle, Saint Verre and Blue Burner.  I really don\'t like Puzzlement at all.  Mr John has a good line but he is too ouchy but he will probably be 15-1 and has rail and there is an outside shot that he is well.  I think you definitely have to play him.  W. Castle also is very fast but I would have like the last race to be a -1 instead of - 1/2 but with 6 wks, he can definitely repeat.  Saint Verre is the horse I like the best.  This horse started his career with a 5 then took 1 yr to break his top , then took another year to break that top.  HOwever, last 4 races have been awesome, I am more inclined to throw out the 11 because of short rest.  Now he again has 6 wks into this race and should run between a 0 to -1.5.  His odds will be high and I like the fact that he successfully changed his running in his last.  Blue Burner has nothing wrong with his line and is the most likely horse to run a new top but with ground loss and a 2 pt move he could be out of luck.  Puzzlement, I don\'t like because the last race should have been a 3 or better, he has a bad post.  He is young but would have to be 40-1 before I consider using him under my top 4 in a $1 ticket.

[mhoff66]

Hey guys...I look at the Donn and see a very bet-able race.  Many of the faster horses are coming off tops, and very good tops at that.  As mentioned previously, many could bounce badly.  

I really don\'t see the love affair with Blue Burner though...other than the Mott/JD combo, which appears to be the main selling point in my opinion, I don\'t see much good about the horse.  I could eat crow on that one, but just don\'t see it...JD will have to be the difference maker for him, which could happen, but being a slower horse, he has his work cut out for him...

Also don\'t like Puzzlement, too slow.  I do like Free of Love as a live longshot, especially with all those back 1\'s.  He does have to steer clear of the fray, and with Patient Pat on him, he may have to navigate through after the pacers slow.  

My main $$ will go to Hero\'s Tribute.  I like the pattern, post, weight, and have to hope that he can come back to that 0 and get a good trip.  I\'m hoping the 8-1 holds or even gets better, as I think other horses (BB, WC, HH) will take lots of $$ with the betting public.

Good luck to all, enjoy the races today!

Mike H

[Michael D.]

I do not like any of these horses.

HH - nice middle distance horse. his stamina problems will again haunt him when he meets the best, but this bunch certainly does not include the best. reluctant use as the highweight from post 11, but look to beat him in any 10 furlong race, and in 9 furlong races when he meets tougher foes.

Blue Burner - if you saw his last, it is quite clear that Puzzlement would have beaten him by 10 lengths if the race was another 100 yards, the horse just stopped.
I expect a much better effort here though. Bailey will probably head right to the rail, and make one run. not a top class animal, but I give him a shot here at 114 lbs.

Bonus Pack - I like this longshot, but I am not sure he has the class to overcome the bad post. I remember when Silver Charm came in for this race a few years ago and drew post 10, they just gave up. Stevens pulled the horse back way off the pace, and didn\'t use him until the end (don\'t think Pletcher and JR will give up that easily though). tends to flatten a bit when going nine furlongs and longer, but if Fires can work out any kind of trip, I think this one can hit the board at a decent price.

The problem with the rest of the bunch is that they all look the same to me. If any one of them runs a big new top, they probably win it. Tough race to me. I will just use the above three in the pk3, pk4, and pk6, and hope to have more of an idea in the surrounding legs (havn\'t looked at the rest of the card yet).  Good Luck everyone.......

[Silver Charm]

I new at this, no not at making a fool of myself with bad selections, but at posting my thoughts on the ROW so here goes.

Pletcher ran Left Bank at Gulf a few years ago in an allow race (first start at four) and he ran a Neg 3. Next race out at Keeneland the horse reacted so badly I thought he might be breaking down. Similar thing last year with Left Bank in first start in the Bold Ruler, then nowhere in the Met Mile.
 
Now similar pattern with HH first start at four so what happens today? Lets say he does\'nt regress much, how about a neg 1 1/2.
He looks to be three wide around the first turn (ie-ground loss of what 1 to 2 lengths to another rival who is 1W, someone help me out here). He spots most of these horses 5 pounds, thats another length correct. We have\'nt gotten around to projecting the 2nd turn.

So a rival who is saving ground and receiving the five pounds may only need a 0 to beat a faster HH with the right trip.

My selection is Windsor Castle who looks to get a groud saving trip around the first and second turn, then attempt to fan out into the middle of the track when they straighten for home (fingers crossed). This type of trip is in the trip comments on the TG sheet several times. When he remained inside he did not quite finish as well as he did when he got to the outside.

The 0-X-0-X mentioned by TG is a concern but maybe he is ready to step up. The bullet work in 59 indicates some level of readiness. So all in all I\'m taking the 5-1.

[fasteddie]

One of the best \"play-against\" angles in this
game is horses who run tops in conditional alw.
races, and then go to a stakes! HH loves the distance, but the weight and post will beat him. Bonus Pack may slip under the radar and
be much higher than the 6-1 ML; Hero\'s Tribute
has been beating me up since his monster 3yo
race; he has always had bad feet (Ward told
me this at the Spa) and lacks heart when going
up against the best. If the track plays speed,
who will run with Keats?? This is the best G1
stakes race, from a betting standpoint, I\'ve
seen in a while.