HANA Pool Party Saturday Race 8 Canterbury

[Cangamble]

Lets hope it stays on the turf.  11 horses, hopefully we can make some noise.

[TGAB]

Attached are the sheets for HANA race of the week. Good luck.

[Cangamble]

Thanks.
Incidentally, good article on HANA by Pricci today:
http://www.horseraceinsider.com/blog.php/on-the-line

[tomath2o]

Thanks from all of us in the Pool Party.

I am a newbie to TG, and have a question about the Thoro-Pattern which is unclear in the documentation.

For example, the rail horse Darby Lee in this race has this line:

THORO-PATTERN                                                  
Turf 5 and up Mar-Jul: Prev Top 10^2, Pair-Off-Off (10^3, 14, 13)
Sts Top% Pair% Off% X%
248 **4 ****34 ****45 **17

Are the percentages listed at the end of the line (4 34 45 17) relative to
the Prev Top of 10^2 (which the documentation does seem to possibly indicate), or relative to the last race of 13?

That is, does the pattern indicate a 34% chance of pairing 13, or 10^2?
A 4% chance of a new Top beyond 13, or 10^2?

It can\'t be that the percentages are relative to 2 different races can it?
(e.g. Top% of 4 relative to 10^2, Pair% of 34 relative to 13)

The problem I am having is that it seems to make more sense that way the way the data look.

For example, if the percentages are all relative to 10^2 as the documentation suggests, then there seems to be a 34% probability of this horse pairing 10^2 according to the pattern; while its last 2 races were 14 and 13 - so that would require a 1^2 to 3^2 point jump...... is that what this pattern really indicates?

On the other hand, if they are relative to the last race 13, a probability of topping this number of only 4% does not seem plausible.

Tom

[TGJB]

All percentages are relative to the effective top, in this case 10.

HOWEVER-- in what I wrote to go with the Thoro-Patterns I tried to make clear that the data is generic in nature, and has to be looked at in context of distance/surface changes, layoffs, trainer changes, etc. In this case, the filly has been running on dirt recently. The Thoro-Pattern shown is for horses who have been racing on turf (we split them because the patterns are much different, turf horses run figures in a much tighter range). We do that because today\'s race is on turf.

The Thoro-Pattern is just a general guide, and again, should be viewed in context. And in many cases not viewed because of context.

[tomath2o]

OK, thank you for the clarification.

Yes, I understood about the caveat - for example, for horses in this race which have been racing exclusively on dirt, these patterns don\'t apply.
I can see that trying to code the software to do it so they all do apply would be a nightmare, probably.

Tom

[tomath2o]

I am still confused about something.

For example, for Mushka in the Sheepshead Bay at Bel tomorrow:
THORO-PATTERN
Turf 4yo Mar-Jul: Prev Top 4^2, Top-Off-Pair (2^3, 5^2, 2^3)
Sts Top% Pair% Off% X%
75   ***17 ****43 ***31 ****9

(^ denotes superscript)

The pattern is Top-Off-Pair.

Yet the third race in the pattern, 2^3, is a Pair to the 1st race in the pattern, 2^3, not the Prev Top of 4^2, correct?

Why are you using it relative to the 1st race in the pattern here, and not the Prev Top, as you say you do for the percentages?

Tom

[TGJB]

When a horse runs a new top that becomes the top for the Thoro-Patterns as well. In other words, this mare is 43% to run 2 3/4, plus or minus a point.