Preakness Thoughts

[mjellish]

I am of the mindset that although RA is a clear standout in this field, she is going to go off at short odds and there are several things not to like about her.  When she gets rest she wins, but both of her loses have come on 15 days rest.  Now she is coming off 14 days rest, draws the outside post in a large field, faces boys and is coming off a HUGE effort.  Plus she has changed connections and her last workout was completely different than how she was working before the Derby.  Many people feel she was not all out in the Oaks because that is how it looked.  But she finished her last 1/8th in around 12 seconds or so, and they don\'t go much faster no matter how hard you whip them after running a 1 1/8th.  So I think she is that rare horse that runs as hard as she can without being asked and I don\'t think there would have been much more there no matter what her Jock did.  Because of all this in my opinion she figures to be an underlay, and it\'s just not my style to play into those types of situations.  I let these types of horses beat me and when they do I don\'t let it bother me.  As a guy who used to do this for a living, it is my firm opinion that this is the best long-term strategy for how to play this game.  You can make far more money when you are right and it hurts far less when you lose.  There\'s just nothing worse than liking two horses, one at 6/5 and one at 10-1, betting the 6/5 and watching the 10-1 beat you.  On the other hand, when I bet the 10-1 and the 6/5 beats me, at least I know I was playing into a higher ROI situation and that I can be wrong about this far more often than I am right and still make more money by playing it that way.  It also only takes me one Jack Daniels to get over losing that way before I feel smart again.  Losing the other way is far worse, involves a cab ride home, etc.

My guess is that BD and RA are the pacesetters here.  I suppose either one of them could just keep on going in the stretch, but I am betting they are going to beat each other up enough to set things up for the pace pressers.  Because of this, I like PON and FF to run a strong race on Saturday.  PON arguably ran the best race in the derby after going wide the entire time on a track he obviously didn\'t care for.  He seems to hang a bit after he makes the lead, but he should have two good targets to run at here.  

FF didn\'t run a lick in Derby, but I think he rebounds here and runs a really big one.  If he is right, and I think he is, I make him the most likely winner if RA doesn\'t run her race.  I also think MM has a good chance to hit the board as he came out of the Derby in good shape, worked well and seems like the hard knocking type who always manages to pick up a check.  

My moonshot key horse in this race is going to be Terrain.  I think he has a great chance to hit the board at a big price.  This is his 3rd start off a layoff and if you know his trainer Al Stall at all you also know that his horses often move up considerably with this type of pattern.  He\'s had two starts this year, one in the slop and one on Poly in which he may not have showed his best but still paired his two-year old top.  Now he hopefully gets a fast dirt track, comes in with rest, has been training well and has every right to run a big one and move forward.  I\'m not saying he wins, but if he goes off at anything near his morning line and hits the board he could trigger some nice payoffs.

GQ looked like a tired horse to me coming into the Derby, and I don\'t think he rebounds here.  I think PC also runs an egg here based on his last work and a couple of recent all out efforts.  His trainer says he always works bad, but his past work history before the Arkansas Derby says otherwise.  I may use them as savers along with my top two and TE, but that\'s about it.

So that\'s how I am going to play the Preakness.  My top two with MM and TE and hopefully hit a nice Tri.  I probably will play a saver with RA, my top two and TE just in case because those combos will probably still offer some value.

Oh, yeah.  And the Derby winner.  I am of the opinion that he is legitimately a good little horse that is coming into his own.  But he caught lightning in a bottle on Derby day and is unlikely to do so again here.  I was watching horses on the rail outrun their odds all day long on Derby day.  I even adjusted my bets at the last second to play the 9 and 10 in the derby in the Tri just in case they managed to stay on the rail the whole trip and hang around.  I think the Derby is a case study for how the Jockey can sometimes make all the difference in a race.  Do you think MTB wins that race with anyone other than Borel on his back?  MTB also seemed to be skipping over that soupy track while many of the others were spinning their wheels.  Even at 50-1 I think he was a huge underlay and figures to be an even bigger one on Saturday.  Another one that if he beats me he beats me.

Good Luck to All and may they all come home safely.

[sekrah]

Bumping this up.

I love Terrain as well.  I think he\'s a must use in the exotics.  I have a good vibe he\'s sitting on a big race in this spot.  Jeremy Rose is very dangerous here.  He knows every nook and cranny of this race track, having brought home Afleet Alex in 2005, Hemingway\'s Key 3rd at 29-1 in 2006 and Icabad Crane 3rd at 22-1 in 2008 (no mount in 2007).

Also like Friesan Fire to run a big one here but going to go with Big Drama against you as he should get a nice rail trip.

I\'m tossing Rachel Alexandra.  Just don\'t see anyway around a big fat X here in this field.  This aint the 5-9 horse fields of inferior fillies she\'s been romping.  Don\'t like Papa Clem either, I think his wad is shot in the Derby.

Baffert scares with POTN as I would think he would point him toward the Belmont, but he must be very confident to run him back here.  I will use him and Musket Man towards the back end of the exotics but BD,FF, and Terrain are my main keys.

Good luck MJ!

[Cartman]

POTN ran a fine race in the Derby starting from an outside post and spending most of the race several paths outside the best footing. Best of a solid group of CA horses that made it (too bad we didn\'t get to see the Pamplemousse). Most likely winner could be decent value if they over bet RA or MTB as expected.

Rachel Alexandra will run another solid race. Whether she wins or not is more dependent on her trip from the 13 post, the speed inside her, and how several of the other colts run than anything about her last race or overall preparation. Solid chance, but probable underlay.

Mine That Bird will run another good race. He was underrated going into the Derby, but got a very favorable trip saving ground on a day that was probably tilted towards inside runners. His form is better than it looks, but not as good as the Derby suggests. Tough value call. It depends on whether bettors think his last was a total mud related fluke (which is the wrong conclusion) or whether they bet him because he was an impressive Derby winner (also an incorrect conclusion)

Musket Man always fires a good race and could be good value here. Looks set for a new top to me.  

FF is obviously better than his last. How much better is the question.

Take the Points is a definite use in exotics for value. Looked set to explode to a new top and become a contender in the Triple Crown when sent out to CA to run on synth where he disappointed. Preakness is the day Pletcher finds out what he has. I think he could have a very underrated colt that could easily hit the board or better.

Papa Clem can get into the mix.

Big Drama should be able to clear from the rail, but faces an eventual challenge from Rachel Alexandra. May have enough to cause her defeat without retaining enough to win.

If anyone else wins, have a nice day.

[HP]

Lots of people seem to like Friesan Fire.  I liked him in the Derby.  How many times do you see a horse run THAT badly and IMMEDIATELY come back and rock?  I have not seen too many.  I guess he will have more space in this race, but the flip side is...what did he get out of the Derby besides being totally humiliated?  I\'m skeptical.  Now he\'ll probably win for fun.  

I think Mine That Bird is underrated here, especially given the fact that there should be plenty in here for him to make his one run at.  If he\'s healthy he should pair up, and that may be enough with these...  

Take The Points and Terrain look like must use-s at the price(s).  

Don\'t like POTN (I know he finished second, but he did not look good doing it), MMan, PClem or GQuarters.  

Good luck to all.  

HP

[sekrah]

Totally humiliated?  The horse never had a chance 100 feet after the gate open. He\'s the only horse exiting the Kentucky Derby fresh!

[HP]

So now it\'s a...nine week layoff?  Tough for me to take at a short price.  Good luck.  HP