The real Preakness Analysis

[pizzalove]

I am anxious to bet this race tomorrow and go to the bank on Monday.  Here is how I see it.

1.  Big Drama - Good early speed but only one race as a three year old and that was on a lightning fast strip.  I hope he gets right to the lead and I look for him to die at about 7f.

2.  Mine that Bird - Way overrated.  People completely miss the fact that Borel hugged the rail tighter than any horse on the CD card that day because the track there was like a superhighway.  there is a reason Borel does this.  Why else would you scrape the rail like that? MTB goes back to his 80 beyers.

3.  Musket Man - Ran just like he normally does in the derby.  Stayed fairly close to a dawdling pace 1:12+ and did not come home that fast either. Pass


4.  Luv Gov - Although I like this horse better than some he may be two slow and also is coming off top performance in mud in two weeks.  Outside chance he is 4th.

5.  Freisan Fire - Most likely winner.  Did not use much in the derby.  A race he also needed after 7 weeks off.  Jock a question.  Good post.  

6.  Terrain - If FF doesnt win this would be the horse.  Good late kick.  Just coming into his own. Rested.  Great jock.  5-6, 6-5 exacta is very likely.

7.  Papa Clem - Wasnt impressed with his derby run either.  Favorable pace scenario yet came home slow.  This horse also tends to swerve out on turns.  Very likely to bounce here.

8.  General Quarters - Didnt like this horse going into derby and I still dont like him.  Better suited to Keeneland.  Should of given this one some time off.  You dont sell a dream but you dont overuse one either.  Dream is over.

9.  Pioneer of the Nile - Real overrated.  Horse was swerving all over in stretch.  Had a nice trip off slow pace and came home in 52+. Yuck.  this horse will bounce after last effort and is probably better suited for grass.

10.  Flying Private - Could really be a dangerous horse.  I am concerned about his overuse.  His arkansas derby was much better than it looked.  Expended nothing in the derby.  3rd place.  Best looking horse in the field.  really hurt by post in last race.  

11.  Take the Points. - Another horse who is rounding into form and could deliver a top effort.  Dangerous.

12.  Tone it down - I dont see any reason for a forward move here.  Pass.

13.  Rachel Alexandra - In her last four races she has faced ONE horse with a beyer of over 90.  Coming off two weeks and purchased by people who know nothing about her yet say she is ready.  Borel a negative.  He will not find a way to cheat at Pimlico.  I see a horse that is in no way ready for this challenge.  She needs time off.  They are taking a big risk.  She pukes with Big Drama.

So there you have it.  box 5-6-10-11 and you are a winner.
Your Welcome.

[flushedstraight]

Chucky Cheese,
I was taking you for real until the mention of Borel cheating in the Derby. It was like a bad joke where the punch line just doesn\'t come soon enough. Now I\'m wishing she had drawn the rail.

[Uncle Buck]

Decent analysis but you missed POTN by 14 in the Derby claiming you thought he would finish 15th and he was way too slow to contend. Baffert knows what he\'s doing. This horse might bounce off the forward jump in the Derby but he also might relish the track. His work the other day seems to tell Baffert he\'s ready to do battle as he is a battler. I don\'t think any of it will matter though. I beleive Rachel to be this year\'s Super Horse. Take the Points keyed over and under all bets with Rachel would be my play but I\'m not playing this race.

But good for you for calling your shot and sharing your thoughts on this board prior to the race. Best of luck to ya...

[sekrah]

Agree on Baffert.. I thought he would be better off pointing towards the Belmont, but that he brought POTN into this race really scares the crap out of me.. He\'ll be ready to go.