Some Derby Thoughts

[MonmouthGuy]

Good luck with your play.

I just don\'t see it with POTN. He hasn\'t shown much improvement on his preferred surface. He will lose a lot of ground based on his PP and the likely race shape---I can\'t imagine him being less than 4W on the first turn. As a result, no matter how well he is training, he will have to move forward in such a dramatic fashion that I think I would need 20-1 to use him personally. He seems to be the definition of an underlay.


Last year, in a field that was probably one of the slowest in recent history, the superfecta--which I know you also hit-- was comprised of 4 of the 7 horses that had run at least a 0.

Maybe this race is more straightforward than it seems.

I am going to key Dunkirk, use FF liberally and play IWR to bounce (off the top line). I will then use some of the longshots that have run fast enough on dirt  to be competitive underneath. A Peace Rules type effort from RR would not surprise me.  The first time dirt horses will have to beat me. The only one I may use is CC in the 3rd or 4th slot.

If it comes up wet FF will become my (and the rest of America\'s) key.

Good luck all.