Sorry MTB fans, his win was bad for racing

[sighthound]

I noticed on the replay that Borel had MTB so tight on the rail, he was running in ground with no hoofprints on it.

Edit:  I was talking to some backstretch folks at CD - they said MTB was doing well in his works - galloping very long distances and not being winded, and after his last work (unremarkable time) continued a very strong gallop out.  They made note of the horse.

I missed it completely.  I think next year, I spend Derby week at the track, doing my own works recon in the am

[Boscar Obarra]

Even more amazing to me than the Bird\'s flight is the whining from so many supposed sophisticates about it.

 Anyone that\'s been around for more then 3 weeks knows crazy things happen with some regularity.  Especially on off tracks.

 Now if you think the Derby should  somehow be immune from weirdness by  edict , then so be it.

 Horse was going forward at the right time and Borel has mojo (profoundly underestimated by handicappers) , and supposedly Bird has a good mud foot (this being first time wet). If he moves up 2 points on wet and  was a natural 2 point move off the 5, + a gold rail , that about does it. Not easy to predict, especially with a \'who?\' trainer.

 The others stunk up the place at best.

[slewzapper]

For the record, I did not introduce non-TG analysis into this thread. It wasn\'t there in the first place.

The Derby attracts a lot of money from casual, indifferent and unsophisticated fans. It also draws in a lot of dumb money from otherwise sophisticated handicappers who should know better than to play a race large with so many poorly predictive and chaotic factors going in, and this Derby had those in spades.

This race outcome was the handicapping equivalent of a black swan. As TGJB says, it happened, get over it. Just remember next year that you\'re betting a race where no entrant has established form over the conditions of the trip. Chaotic results are more probable than most races handicapping regimens are applied to.

SC, if you seriously feel that the win pool on MTB was suspicious, perhaps you can spell out for us occasional, amateur posters as to what you think went down. That would be more enlightening then the condescending flippant reply to the direct question you gave instead. And I\'m asking in earnest.

[RICH]

I subscribe to a pace program that actually had MTB with the highest pace number off his last 2, its underlined and hi-lighted, his performance numbers were on the rise, of course, I disregarded.

[smalltimer]

RICH,
Same here, had him in the 3 hole on 6 tickets despite that data.  It didn\'t seem to make sense.

[P-Dub]

slewzapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For the record, I did not introduce non-TG
> analysis into this thread. It wasn\'t there in the
> first place.
>

slewzapper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> FWIW, the number 8 is considered good fortune in
> Asian cultures.
>
> He\'s also the Canadian two-year-old champ....post
> 8 has had the most Derby winners I
> believe....Birdstone won the Travers in the
> slop....Borel...
>
> It obviously wasn\'t based upon speed figure
> handicapping. That group was diluted in the
> betting pool.


Slew,

I wasn\'t being critical of you when I said non-TG info was mentioned.  But c\'mon. You mentioned the following as reasons some may have bet MTB:

- Canadian 2YO champ
- the #8 is considered good fortune in Asian culture
- post 8 has had the most Derby winners
- Birdstone won in the slop
- Borel

Are you telling me that these are key indicators found using TG methodology?? The next time Borel is on the 8 horse in the slop, the rubberband comes off.

[slewzapper]

\'course not.

But who knew that the little old lady who was randomly punching out combos at the self-service machine (while all the serious figure guys behind her in line was snickering and swearing under their breath) had the race nailed?

Next they\'ll be taking over Fed Reserve policy meetings.

Looking back at this race is kind of like investigating \"why the plane went down\". I think I\'ll just move on.

[sekrah]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well I will give you this, he certainly provided a
> lot more value than Fraudulant Fire
>

LOL, Why?  because FF practically had his hoof torn off in the first 100 meters, this means he was a fraud?

Are you serious?

[miff]

Raggie Richie tells me that MTB got a 3 on Rags which equates to a TG neg -1/2 and confirms that TG, Rags and Beyer saw it virtually the same.


Mike