My voodoo dance didn't work at all

[covelj70]

I have to change my picks based on the post draw.  I thought Desert Party had a good chance to win but I don\'t think he\'s so much better than these that he can overcome the 19 post.

Unfortunately, the one I would have replaced him with, West Side Bernie, drew a tough post as well to win.  He  could get up for a piece but tough for the win.  He is training fabulously well.  He impressed me more than any other horse on the backstretch today.

So, I am down to Regal Ransom and IWR.

Can someone make a case for one of the others other than FF, POTN and Dunkirk all of whom I think are throw outs?

thanks

[congaree1]

I don\'t think POTN is a toss. IMO, this horse will love the dirt, being out of Empire Maker. He already beat IWR, albeit on polly, he still beat him twice. IWR might have run to fast to early.

[covelj70]

I could certainly be wrong, lord knows that has happened before but at 5-1, he\'s gonna have to show me he can do it on the dirt.  I watched him the last two days and I think he\'s a really nice horse but he looks like a turf horse, especially in his back end (very slight back end) and Empire Maker is actually throwing better turf and syn runners than dirt runners which is very consistent with his half brother, Chesterhouse, who is one of the leading turf and poly sires.  Not saying the Empire Makers can\'t run on the dirt at all but there\'s a pretty good body of evidence mounting that he will be better on Turf/syn.  Finally, if Mott thought he was a dirt horse, he would have started him on the dirt.

Again, could always be wrong but that\'s how I am going to play it on Sat.

[congaree1]

Why wouldn\'t have Baffert run him in the Wood, then wait for the derby to find out? I think he has a good idea what this horse will do.

[covelj70]

lots of reasons but one could be that he wanted very badly to be a big part of the Derby experience as he hasn\'t had that in a few years and if he went to the wood and didn\'t run well, he would have been an afterthought this week instead of being in the limelight.

Trust me, the limelight is important to him.  At the trainers dinner last night, he and Lucas stole the show and Baffert was eating that up.  In addition, he was the center of attention on the backstretch this AM.

He was standing right at the chute where the horses enter and exit the track and he stayed there most of the morning.  People had to look at him everytime a horse went on and off the track.  He LOVES the attention.

I actually like Baffert alot and have no issue at all with him wanting to be the center of attenion, I would want to be if I were him (I want to be and I am not him) but that\'s just one thought about why he hasn\'t tried the dirt yet.

[flushedstraight]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So, I am down to Regal Ransom and IWR.
>
> Can someone make a case for one of the others
> other than FF, POTN and Dunkirk all of whom I
> think are throw outs?

hahaha, sounds like you\'re also out of ideas other than the fave & Godolphin #2

maybe Ramon will find a way to save ground like he did in 06 and/or Desert Party will be that good on Saturday()

enjoyed reading your posts here the past few weeks, thanks for taking the time, enjoy and good luck.

[Rick B.]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So, I am down to Regal Ransom and IWR.
>
> Can someone make a case for one of the others
> other than FF, POTN and Dunkirk all of whom I
> think are throw outs?
>
> thanks

I\'m trying to project ahead to Sunday, when I don\'t want to be asking myself, \"How on earth did I miss ____________!?!?\"

These are the horses that are bugging me:

* Papa Clem: is he peaking at the perfect time? Bejarano will have him right there every step of the way. Can he repeat the 0.25 he threw in the Ark. Derby...and will it be good enough?

* Wall Street Bernie: someone here said he drew a line through his syn races, and then took another look at his sheet. That might have been a stroke of genius -- do it yourself: line out the syn races, treat them as public workouts, and tell me what you see. I see a HUGE sleeper here. Don\'t think you should give up on him yet, at least not because of his post position.

* Hold Me Back: this one is more of a \"gut check\" than anything I can quantify with numbers. Mott has mostly avoided the Triple Crown races over the years -- it\'s not like he couldn\'t have gotten his hands on a good youngster if he wanted to. And here he is, with Hold Me Back: would Mott enter him, if he didn\'t think HMB could win? Did Mott suddenly catch Derby Fever? (Unlikely...) Do I know more than Bill Mott? (...times infinity.)

* Musket Man: all he does is win, and so far, at 4 different tracks. Five wins (including three stakes, two of which are graded), with one loss in 6 starts. Are we overlooking the obvious here?

[covelj70]

thanks Flushed and great luck this weekend!

[covelj70]

Rick, thanks so much for the thoughts.

The one I can make the best case for is WSB just because he looked so damm good on the track today and I very much agree that if he just doesn\'t like the syn, then the pattern is very live.

I have an easier time believing that a closer can do something from the one hole, ala jazil and steppenwolfer a few years back, than I do a stalker can get there from the 19.

Hold me Back is alot like POTN for me, really nice horse but what I saw the last 2 days in him was all turf. Very high knee action and very slight behind.  I look from him in the Arlington turf stakes for 3 year olds this summer where he could be a monster.  I don\'t think Billy would run him in the Derby if Winstar wasn\'t so excited about being in the Derby (just as I would be if I owned the horse, no criticism intended there).

thanks again for the thoughts

[colt]

This has the making of IEAH back to back  - IWR keyed with WSB, MM, DUN, FF, HMB, PC, RR, AR, & GQ.  Cannot see any of the SoCal that have not yet tried dirt being a factor here - too many horses have to bounce for them to have any chance.  QR defection, makes this a much easier read and focus play.

[miff]

Barbaro and Big Brown(lesser extent) had high front end turfy action, both whistled!


Mike

[ronwar]

I was thinking the same thing.

[covelj70]

for sure they both had turf action but they also both had great big engines,  Just huge hind ends that I believe you need to win a classic distance race on the dirt.  None of this year\'s turf action horses have that.

as I always say, I have been wrong before and sure as hell will be again, I just hope it\'s not this weekend!