Very surprised about Rachael Alexander's Sheet, she's not the lock I thought she was

[covelj70]

I don\'t want to take money out of Jerry\'s pocket by giving out RA\'s figs/patter but everyone should check out the Derby/Oaks special that got posted last night.

I had been assuming that she was a lock to win but I was wrong and that is definitely not the case.

Matter of fact, I don\'t even know that she is the most likely winner, if she is, it\'s not by alot and she will be a horrible play at 2-5.  

This creates some new possibilities on how to play the Derby.

If we can beat RA in the Oaks and have live Oaks/Derby double tickets to some of the favs that I am afaid to completely toss (i.e. Friesan Fire and POTN), then we can really go bombs away on the big race. Of course, we can really lever up and play against her in the Oaks and then take a number of the bombers, one of whom I believe will win the Derby and that would work as well.

Derby weekend gets more interesting by the minute.

[EJXD2]

She\'s not going to be 2-5. She wasn\'t even the favorite in the Oaks future wager.

Maybe she\'s even money because of the ridiculous buzz involved, but she won\'t be 2-5.

[covelj70]

The reason RA wasn\'t the favorite in the Oaks future pool wager is that one of the guys that owns Justwhistledixie just kept betting on Dixie in the future wager to ensure she was the fav becasue he thought it would be fun to own the futures pool fav.   Swear to god.  He wound up betting almost 20k on her in the futures pool.  The pool isn\'t that big so that kind of bet makes a big difference.

I couldn\'t make something like that up, I promise.

Maybe she won\'t be 2-5 but she will be a heavy heavy fav and it seems to me a good play against (I guess we need to make sure our futures pool friend doesn\'t take the same approach for the Oaks but the pools are pretty big so I think we will be ok).

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Not sure I see what you see.  

She is the fastest fillie in the race.  All three races as a 3 year old have been with the \"h\".  We can debate whether that necessarily means she could have gone faster or not and the issue of \"even if she could have gone faster that day, it doesn\'t mean she will have the energy to use in the future\".  However, she is the fastest filly and seems to have a tactical edge over Justwhistledixie in that she has positional speed to secure a nice trip.  Also, average offspring of Dixie Union develop 2 points from 2 to 3, and Justwhistledixie has already developed 3 points.  That could be offset by the fact that she has never moved backwards, which is a nice line.  Very similar to Friesan Fire on the colt side.  The issue with both Justwhistledixie and Friesan Fire is that they each have only 1 figure that would get them the win.  At 10-1 or better, I don\'t mind taking \"one figure horses\", but Justwhistledie will be a solid second choice around 3-1, I would guess.  FF may be closer to that 10-1, but in a 20 horse field.  I will be curious to see how TGJB feels about FF and how he weighs the \"never moved backwards and has 7 weeks rest\" angle against \"he only has one figure that makes him competitive\".

Not sure I see anybody else to beat Rachel Alexandra, unless you play the \"jump up\" for Stardom Bound.  Just Jenda is mildly interesting, but that back up in the last is pretty bad.  Dream Play is fast, but she isnn\'t going 1 1/8 and I don\'t think she is running (although I could be wrong about that)

Last point Covelj, although it is just an opinion.  I think your odds line is off here, similar to your Derby one.  2-5 seems highly unlikely.  4-5 seems much more likely.  And that difference matters in the prices we get for taking the other fillies to beat her.

[covelj70]

Jimbo, thanks for the thoughts as always.

You may well be right about the odds for both POTN and RA.

In terms of what I see, I see that she reacted to the negative number when she bounced in the FG Oaks.  Another example of visually impressive but a bounce nonetheless.  Then she comes back to a big number in her last and there is the big chance that she reacts again to the big number and runs a 2 or 3.  I think there are a number of fillies in the race that could run a 2 or 3.

Also, I found out today that West Point is going to run Fitz Just Right in the race (who I own a small piece of for full disclosure).  While I don\'t think Fitz can win the race, she can absolutely give RA all she can handle for about a mile as she is a fast and tough filly  (although nowhere near the quality of RA and JWD).  Fitzy won\'t be sent on a suicide mission but she\'s a filly that goes right to the front.  RA has been loose on the lead in each of the last few races and I think having to work early coupled with the sheet pattern which suggests a bounce is possible makes RA very vulnerable at low odds (Whether its 2-5 or 4-5).

Thanks again for the thoughts.  Going to be a fun two weeks

[jimbo66]

Covelj,

Interesting.  I guess if I hadn\'t watched Rachel Alexander\'s last three races, I would have more faith in the pattern read.  It just looks like a bit of a manufactured pattern in that in the 3 point backward move race Borel stopped riding with about 1/16th of a mile to go and pulled her to a stop almost for the last 50 yards.

But if we take the pattern for what it is, she did bounce 3 points off the top last time and if she does it again, you are right, she isn\'t the most likely winner.  

At least it gives us \"favorite haters\" something to hang our hats on.

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

\"Favorite haters\"  I absolutely love that one!

I was standing at the wire in New Orleans for the FG Oaks and you are absolutely right that Borel acted like a fool in the last 50 yards making all kind of movements and gestures while pulling her up so there is valid reason to question that number (more so than just a normal hand ride like IWR got in the Wood or BB got in the Preakness).

[Flighted Iron]

With deference to Mr.Borel re:raceriding.Don\'t know the man personally,however
he does get 2 things while aboard.Save ground and Save horse even when there\'s
a foolish outburst.Re:IWR\'S SUPPOSED handride.Foolishly whipping a horse drawing
off on it\'s own wasted precious TG points.No more from me re:IWR and connections.

While not knowing the man but from having heard him speak I get the impression
of country boy,work hard and tell the truth.Obviously as excited as he was he
still had horse sense in saving good.

Save ground and save horse
the words came light
passed on 5x10 ol country boy
not a hint of smite