Florida Derby

[covelj70]

Surprise there hasn\'t been more chatter on the board about the Florida Derby given the interesing patterns of the top two choices.

To me, both Quality Roak and Dunkirk look like they will bounce but Quality Road could bounce and still win/be competitive while a bounce would take Dunkirk out of the picture.

I feel more strongly about Dunkirk bouncing given the 10 point improvement from his first to his second race.  We would need to wake up Sunday morning with Dunkirk\'s pattern being 10, 0, 2 negative in order for him to him and a move forward off of the big jump last time just doesn\'t seem that likely.

Quality Road improved alot from his last start but \"only\" about 4 points from his first race/secondary top and so I don\'t think he\'s as certain to bounce as Dunkirk is and he\'s coming from a much better/faster place to start so that he could bounce and still win (depending on how much improvement we see from Theregoesjojo) which leads me to the value in the race.

Theregoesjojo has a very nice looking pattern, is already faster than Dunkirk and may well improve from the last.  He has already beaten Quality Road once and may well do it again here.

The bet is an exacta box with Quality Road and Theregoesjojo as throwing Dunkirk out should create at least some value.

Does anyone see the Dunkirk bounce differently?

[shanahan]

I am with you on theregoesjojo.  think tomorrow he improves again.  I rewatched the dunkirk race and I am not as enamored as I was previously.

I expect there will be another horse we are overlooking, but will hold off till I see the figs tonight.

[congaree1]

I like the Azupura horse a little bit, in this spot. Dangerous trainer and the horse looks consistent and tries hard. I will use mostly in the 2nd and 3rd spots. As for the favorites, i am just not sure. My guess will be that one of them does not fire and I don\'t like the McPeek horse at all.

Good luck

[covelj70]

interesting, thanks so much.

what don\'t you like about jojo?

[congaree1]

Not sure he wants the distance. Jerkins horse crushed him in the last and is very sharp. If you look at the ML, Dutros horse is 6-1 and not very accomplished, while McPeeks horse is somewhat more accomplished and is 5-1.

[big18741]

Toby the Coalman is 10-1 ML in the Florida Derby.That\'s funny.

[big18741]

Playing TGJOJO in the Pk\'s.

Tossing chalk(Phil,Big Drama) in the Swale.

Appleton a spread race.

Henning looks okay in the last.Matz getting tops and pairs the last 90 days.Blinks on and more ground could help.

[smalltimer]

Despite the graded stakes earnings, looks like a boring race unless you really like one of the 3 favorites, of which there is small value in any of those 3.
Looks like Theregoes keeps his eye on Q Road and Dunkirk keeps his eye on both of them.  There may be a real stud in the bunch, but they all have questions unanswered.  Since I\'m gonna play the race I may as well take an optimistic look at it.
If Sincero (20/1) avoids trouble, he may hit the board because of the running styles of the big 3.  In 6 career outs this horse has managed to find trouble in 5 races.  He may be one of those gawkers who likes to look around, so today the hood goes on and we\'ll see if that helps, it won\'t help him run any faster, but it might help him avoid trouble today, and despite the Morning line, looks like he\'ll be closer to 50/1 than 20/1 after the believers of Q Road/Dunkirk/Theregoes put their money down. Moving from a 42K allowance race into a Grade 1 is a helluva jump, but its the same jump Dunkirk\'s gonna try today.
It just seems the big 3 are so superior to the others, except Danger could run well with Dutrow, that a 6 length loss last time to Dunkirk might be enough to separate Sincero from the remainder of the field.  At least, that\'s how I\'m playing it.
2456/2456/2456/all  If I can get one of the big 3 to miss the board, shouldn\'t be hard for me to get my few bucks back.
In Dubai today, I like Marsh Side in the turf race, the heavier the turf the better for this pony.
Good luck to all

[toppled]

I find it funny that the media has picked up on the fact that Dunkirk needs the $ to get into the Derby, while ignoring the fact that both Quality Road & Theregoesjojo also need more $ & if jojo doesn\'t run 1 or 2, he\'s out in Kentucky.  

I\'m probably sitting this one out, unless Dunkirk is so heavily bet that the price on Quality Road is bumped up enough to play him.  I have QR in my future bet at 14-1 & a win here makes that a huge value play because if he wins the Florida Derby, he\'ll be less than half that in Kentucky.