Fountain of Youth

[shanahan]

Tossing Phil completely after the last top and terrible post.  The horse I am going to key is Taqarub (whatever that means), and boxing in tris/supers/ex with Beethoven, Quality Road, Capt. Candyman, and Theregoesjojo.
I suspect there could be lots of speed as Phil tries for the lead, gets a few to go with him, fades, and then \"here they all come\"...playing #10 in top 2 slots with these.  To me, these look like the ones with the best progressions of speed and moving up to face better horses over the last 6 months.

[miff]

Shan,

If Phil tries for the lead, you have a scoop! Barring a bad break,Notonthesamepage is the quickest with Quality Road and Taqarub next. They are looking for Phil to sit fourth or fifth off the speed.


Mike

[Silver Charm]

So that sounds like 4W on the turn to me

[shanahan]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Shan,
>
> If Phil tries for the lead, you have a scoop!
> Barring a bad break,Notonthesamepage is the
> quickest with Quality Road and Taqarub next. They
> are looking for Phil to sit fourth or fifth off
> the speed.
>
>
> Mike


Mike, doesn\'t he have to go for it quickly from the outside?  Silver has it pegged - if he doesn\'t,he\'s easily4-5 wide into the turn, no?

[miff]

Shan,

Maybe, but if the front end is very fast, as expected, he will be attacking spent horses, wide or not. Good Luck


Mike

[TGJB]

One turn mile, very long run to the turn.

[bobphilo]

Mike and Jerry are both right. Plenty of time to work out a trip in the long run to the turn. Even if caught wide, it\'s a lot easier to pass tiring horses on the far turn in a 1-turn race than being hung wide with the hot pace of the 1st turn in a 2-turn race.

Bob

[Uncle Buck]

Theregoesjojo made a really, really nice middle move as I\'m sure y\'all saw. Desormeaux damn near fell off that horse he moved so fast. Bears watching in my book

[miff]

Notonthesamepage was 6th at the first quarter in 23.84 app 6 lenghts back. You could have gotten 100-1 on that as a prop bet barring gate trouble.Very weird early riding by a couple of jocks.


Mike

[shanahan]

so much for my key horse...the 4 I boxed with taqurub made up the super...just without taqurub.

[Michael D.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Notonthesamepage was 6th at the first quarter in
> 23.84 app 6 lenghts back. You could have gotten
> 100-1 on that as a prop bet barring gate
> trouble.Very weird early riding by a couple of
> jocks.
>
>
> Mike


When going 1M, the 1/4 fractions appear a bit out of whack at this track. Could be the wind, but things seem to return to normal by the half, and that additional 1/4 is pretty much the same run as the first (or maybe not?). Closing fractions usually don\'t suggest any tornado type winds.

[miff]

Mike D,

The run up at the mile distance was substantially shortened 2-3 years ago which accounts for the always slow 1st split at the one mile distance at GP.

Mike

[big18741]

Beethoven a good check casher and passer of tired horses.Borel a perfect fit for him.That 25.87 first quarter will have him sitting 20th and on the rail going into the first turn at Churchill.Perfect bottom tri or super horse in a fast paced race if he handles the yardage.

TGJOJO(7/2 first flash yesterday?) looks best moving forward.They need earnings so he should be a tough customer in the FLA Derby.QR was the cranked up and hard bet late horse yesterday.

Don\'t think the Candyman was a tight horse yesterday,but the rating experiment or failure to do so is not an encouraging sign.Too close to the hot half and he just crawled home.

[bobphilo]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike D,
>
> The run up at the mile distance was substantially
> shortened 2-3 years ago which accounts for the
> always slow 1st split at the one mile distance at
> GP.
>
> Mike

That and the fact that the next quarter is almost all straightaway before coming into the turn would explain the discrepancy between the first 2 quarter splits at the mile distance. That would account for the slow first vs. fast second quarter splits that Silver Charm noted for the FOY.

Come to think of it, at 9 furlongs, a large part of the first quarter is on the first turn while the second quarter is mostly backstretch straight, so we would see a similar effect at the 9 furlong distance.

Bob

Note: My original post may have implied that the FOY was at 9 furlongs rather than a mile. My edited post above should clear that up.