Longshot pick for San Rafael

covelj70 · January 17, 2009, 05:29:14 AM

I am going to take a shot with Fiddler\'s Afleet today in the San Rafael.

Now, I am worried about a bounce as the horse made a big move forward down to a 1.5 in his last race and he shipped cross country so he may not run his number here. Also, this is his poly debut so there is a risk there as well.

However, 1) that 1.5 is the best number in the field by a good margin, 2) Northern Afleet\'s TGI index is actually better on synthetic than on dirt so there\'s some reason to believe the horse can handle the pro-ride, and 3) the big number he earned in his last was his first time routing which could mean a bounce is less likely as the horse just wants to go longer.

So, certainly some risk here but with a 10-1 morning line and all of the money likely to go to Square Eddie, I think Fiddler\'s Afleet is worth a shot.

Thoughts?

shanahan · January 17, 2009, 07:56:35 AM

you beat Alan to the puch by 15 minutes.

covelj70 · January 17, 2009, 08:38:35 AM

oh man, I jinxed it for sure, sorry everyone

TGJB · January 17, 2009, 10:12:15 AM

For the record, FA was bought on our recommendation. My guess is that it will take a while before he gets back to the big number, but I\'ve been wrong before.

covelj70 · January 17, 2009, 10:24:30 AM

Nice, for everyone\'s sake, I hope he gets back to it sooner rather than later but I certainly understand the case for him not running his number today.

TGJB · January 17, 2009, 11:16:37 AM

Also, Pro-Ride is basically turf.

Silver Charm · January 17, 2009, 03:45:11 PM

Yah he looked a little short. Can not say I blame anybody for trying Calif 3YO\'s this winter if that is the best there is out there. Five horse field one of which was essentially eased. Few of the Holly Futurity crew ran back so maybe there are some developers there.

Maybe

covelj70 · January 17, 2009, 05:56:11 PM

awful pick, sorry boys.

Uncle Buck · January 17, 2009, 09:55:16 PM

Covel. The upside is he\'ll be 25-1 or greater next time if you still beleive

big18741 · January 20, 2009, 05:09:11 AM

Why this trainer John O\'Hara if you just purchased a fast two year old?

https://www.drf.com/news/article/100903.html

TGJB · January 20, 2009, 11:09:34 AM

I don\'t know O\'Hara, other than he iused to work for John Forbes years ago. John was one of the very best trainers I ever worked with. The client used to work on the backside with O\'Hara years ago and has confidence in him.