Monday late pik 3 - FG

[shanahan]

Fairgrds:

Race 8 - expecting Omnyti to bounce of the top \"10\", although with the drop back to claiming, he\'s in the box.  Insure 3rd back off the layoff (and in 3 days he\'d be considered 3rd back, improving 4 YO.  He\'s in the box.  Holy Sparkler taken from Amoss by Calhoun, expecting improvement to a 9-10 range.  Contender.  Expect Cactus Kitty to bounce.  She\'s a Cat five broke through to a new top in last, but moving up from MCL to straight CLMR.  
Selections are 1,2,5.  TG Analysis pik is # 6, having paired \"9\" on poly and slop.

Race 9 - Turf route,where turf breeding has meant little at this meet to date.  No Albarado mount in this race seems odd.  Looks like no one will have a chance to lose @ 2:5.  Keeping this simple.  Noble Bandit & Lake Lugano are paired (13\'s and 11\'s), and a forward move for both is expected.  Likewise, the initial \"9\" by Dancin Perfect is a smart # for a low profile trainer.  But good god, Pleasantly Perfect is throwing 44% winners on turf (tiny sample, but this is Empire Maker %).
Selections are 2,3,6.  TG Analysis pick is 3, but with 4 as the box.

Race 10 - MCL, 2YO state-breds, going short.  No great # here, indeed Really Did Bam has paired up, unfortunately they are \"19\'s\".  When they are all slow, it\'s a good idea to find a good 1st time trainer, or ask yourself why the top jockeys are sticking around for a state-bred MCL at the end of the day.  I\'ll go with the latter, and look to Jacinto on Zarb\'s Whirl (dropping form MSW) out of longtime LA sire Zarbyev.  Single for the win.  Unfortunately he is one of the horses possibly who is catching the virus and scratched.  Same angle, different horse & we\'ll go with Asmussen/Bridgemohan on Louisiana John, plus the first timer out of Ide.  
Selections are 11 & 13.  TG analysis - 4 with 2/5.  5 is SCR.

Total wager is $18.

[TGJB]

In race 8 the 6 was third in the blanket photo.

The ninth came off the grass, we gave out the 7 on dirt, she won.

In the 10th the 5 scratched, leaving us with the 4 who ran third at 10-1, and using the 2 with it, who won. Some trainer stats for that guy with first timers in for a tag, check out the RBR.

[shanahan]

JB - I didn\'t see any posting on their website, nor any weather issues in NO, even as late as noon CST yesterday, so that race off the grass was unnerving when I got somewhere I could view it...oh, well.

Surprised we haven\'t had more folks give some verbage and write some races.  I had a blast with it yesterday with a few hrs to kill.  Thanks again for the free week.  There\'s always tomorrow.

[Bullman]

What is up with the dead turf rail at FG?  Candy Ball looked like she hit a brick wall...

Every jock that should be saving ground along the rail is atleast 3-4 paths off it

[richiebee]

Shanahan--

Races 4-6 at FG-- (All La Bred Races)-- will play only if R4 and R6 are on
grass.

Race 4 La bred MSW 2YO 7.5F Turf: #4 With Attitude (Asmussen) (With Approval
out of a Skip Trial mare, beaten at 3/5 in his last on the main track) and
#8 Down the Road (Indian Charlie out of a Saint Ballado mare) are hard to go
past off their breeding and their limited race experience. Also arguably the 2
fastest in the race off their TGs. Also short priced propositions.

Race 5 La Bred 5K Claimers 1 Mile Dirt: All but one of the 11 entered have won
at least one race over FG strip. #1 Silver Mat (Amoss)(claimed for 25K 2 starts
back) and #4 Tommy\'s Turn (Autrey)(claimed for 30K 2 starts back) are arguably
fastest and go out for the medicine men. #7 Wild Chill is a hard knocking ten
year old whose best TGs seem to have come at Evangeline, but he reunites
with \"Chopper\" Bourque, who won 3 straight with the old timer over the summer.
# 6 Blaze You (prolific trainer/jock combo)and #10 Mo Cold both seem capable of
posting a TG \"10\", which may be enough here.

Race 6 La Bred MSW 2YO (F) 7.5F Turf: Obvious favorite #3 All Too Solid has
been a beaten fave in her 2 FG dirt tries;she began her career with a good try
on the Oak Tree downhill 6.5F course. # 1 Pawpaws Bobbys Baby circled the field
in a shorter race on an off track, should be a price here. # 6 My Stormy Angel-
check out trainer Morris Nicks work with first time starters on the turf on
the TG first/second start boxscore. #7 Terri has not beaten a runner in 2
lifetime races. If we can trust the clockers, she has also worked very well in
the AM. Goes out for a 20% jock and a high % trainer who according to
DRF has put over 3 of 8 runners first time turfing with a healthy ROI. If she
wins trainer Leggio probably gets to see the stewards.

4,8/1,4,6,7,10/1,3,6,7 = $40

Happy New Year to All.

[shanahan]

Richie - nice.  This is what I was hoping the board would do - write some handicapping opinions while the freebies were avaliable.  Just cuirous - why pick the cheap state bred races for your pik 3?

[richiebee]

Shan--

I like variety. They rarely run the 7.5 furlong turf distance. Also, I think
that the likely favorite in race 6 is very vulnerable for a low % trainer.
I\'ve thrown out the second and third faves in Race 6 and will use the favorite
but pull against him

Field size-- 9/11/9 before scratches is also appealing.

The middle leg is cheap, but has mostly multiple winners at least some of whom
have some recency.