Santa Anita 12/26

[P-Dub]

Opening Day at Santa Anita. My thoughts on 3 races.

4th: King Slayer(10-1) has some nice figs that are definitely fast enough. Didn\'t like the surface last time?? 2nd off LO and trainer change (Mitchell). Lake William fast but off a long layoff and ML fav will try to beat. Dr Park got back to 3yo top in 2nd start this yr and just got back to it. Can he move forward even though he is a router? Kolinor popped a fast one 2 back. Gets back to it or more like a 5 1/2? KS looks like a play here. 11 downhill starts, 7 exacta finishes. Mitchell put some nice drills into him too.

7th: Golden Arrow keeps moving forward with a solid # last out. Inesperado stuck on 5s? Or does he move forward. Medecis had a rough trip in the BC. A must use in exotics. Aly Bubba ran a nice number last time. Maybe sneaks into the tri at a price. Inesperado looks too short a price for me. GA to win, box w/Medecis.

8th: Routers do well at 7f but I don\'t thing S Break is being pointed for this one. Still is pretty fast.American System ran a pair of 1 3/4s three & four races back. He regressed the last 2 (BI comment on the 2nd 1 3/4). Can he come back to those big ones? 10/1 ML gives him a look at least. My Cousin Matt has run 5 good ones in a row, the last one a neg. He ships again and is 5/2 on the line. Have to think he will regress some. Play against Lake?? Castle Gandolfo is interesting. Didn\'t fire in the Derby. Did win at 6f in his debut, excellent connections and some solid works. Might surprise in here. I\'ll take AS to win and pair up with CG,SB and Golden Hare.

I would appreciate any comments for or against my thoughts. Good luck.

[derby1592]

Of the three races that you mention, the Malibu is the only one I have any opinion on. I think My Cousin Matt is the obvious horse to beat. He is the fastest and most of the other contenders are probably using this as a prep and would prefer longer distances. In fact, I was surprised Matt\'s last fig was not faster. He beat Deer Run by 8 in his last and Deer Run had run about 10 straight 1.5s (a figure maker\'s dream). However, at 5/2 in the morning line, Matt is no value.

I will probably pass the race but I think USS Tinosa looks like the one possible value play. He is as fast as any of the others, gets in light, and Hollendorfer is very good off the bench and has given the horse a very nice progressive work tab leading up to this race. The Malibu is clearly a prep for the horse but it is a Graded Stakes race and he may be pretty cranked up for it and will likely be flying at the end. He also ran his top at SA last winter and he also may be completely overlooked in the betting.


Good luck.

Chris