Indian Blessing this weekend in the Ruffian

[covelj70]

I am anxious to see what the sheets look like for Indian Blessing and the rest in the Ruffian this weekend.

The fact that she has put in two massive efforts in a row and that she will be trying to stretch out again makes her a good bet against in my mind.

I unsuccessfully tried to beat her in the Test off of the huge number she put up in the Prioress but I think there\'s something to the idea that horses are more likely to bounce off of two huge efforts as opposed to just one huge effort.

I know it\'s a small sample size but look at the recent numbers for horses including Midnight Lute and Big Brown.

Both put up massive numbers in last year\'s Forego and this year\'s Florida Derby respectively and while the expectation was they would bounce off those monster efforts in the Breeders Cup Sprint and Kentucky Derby, they both paired those huge efforts before regressing in their subsequent races in the Cigar Mile and Preakness respectively and then completely falling apart after that.  In the case of Midnight Lute, he was off for a year and in the case of BB, the Belmont debacle.

Point of all this is that when quality animals put in monster efforts, it may make more sense to play them to bounce off the second huge number than the first and I think Indian Blessing could be such a play this weekend.

Thoughts?

[fkach]

I think the fact that she\'ll be stretching out again is enough to suspect that she won\'t duplicate her recent figures even if she remains just as sharp.

[jbelfior]

NYRA needs to make a decision on Friday morning as to whether to cancel Saturday and run the same card on Sunday. Some forecasters are calling for 2-4 inches of rain from Friday night into Saturday.


Good Luck,
Joe B.