14 second final 1/8

[Barry Irwin]

Somebody a lot smarter than me will have to explain how one horse suffers more of a negative impact from steroid deprivation than another, because if all horses are off steroids, why is one horse suspected of not performing as well with his \"juice?\' Should they not all have more or less the same impact from the roids having been taken away?

I think that both Curlin and Big Brown have lost their mojo because the former was switched to turf, had his training changed and he is not back in the groove, while the latter\'s problems are well documented.

At their best earlier in the season, they were both tremendous. Now they are not. I don\'t think steroids has anything to do with it.

The 112 for Curlin is preposterous.

[Michael D.]

Themig Wrote:
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> Richie,
> I watched the race from the first turn and
> 1)Watched Curlin getting bounced around pretty
> hard heading for the backside, and 2) really did
> not much \"galloping out\" from him after the race.
> I have only seen the race twice(no head-on view),
> but he was 4-5 wide on the first turn, and it
> looked like he was wide down the backstretch. This
> did not help his cause.
> Mig


good points mig.

make Curlin 2w/2w without the traffic on the 1st turn, and he runs 1:48, maybe even 1:47 and change.

[fkach]

I know virtually nothing about the effects of medications and steroids on horses other than what can be determined using the PPs and stats. However, over the last couple of years I often suggested that some of the supposed \"move up\" and \"super\" trainers did it in a way that intuition suggested to me involved steroids or a steroid like substance. I felt that way because I really didn\'t see many \"Oscar like\" trainers. They didn\'t move them up in 5 days. They were typically out for between 5 and 10 weeks and came back looking great. That never seemed to be the \"magic bullet\" type move up to me (even though I\'m sure other things are going on also). It seemed more like a reconditioning process that some horsemen could both accomplish \"and afford\" when they took horses from some other trainers.

If steroids have been such a big factor (and I don\'t know that to be the case), then many of the accusations that have been tossed around so liberally may need to be re-evaluated considering steroids were legal.

[miff]

\"The 112 for Curlin is preposterous\".


Barry,

Studied this phenomenon for many years, it\'s called \"projection voodoo\"and is based on preconceived notions about what a horse \"should\" run as opposed to what he actually runs. Most times, the better the horse, the more benefit of the doubt given.


Mike

[fkach]

miff,

I haven\'t looked at the results yet. So I don\'t know if Beyer broke the Curlin race out to get to a 112. If he did, the implication is that the track slowed down a bit. This kind of thing often reveals a huge problem in logic \"when the race also had a relatively fast pace\".

If the track slowed down, that means the fractions were even faster than they looked and the front runners ran even better than the figures they were assigned.

I have a very difficult time believing that Past the Point and Wanderin Boy are monsters. IMHO, they both ran very good races, but it is highly unlikely that they could have run a very fast pace and pretty fast final time like a 112 would suggest. More likely is that the final time was slowish because the front runners exahusted themselves to some degree and Curlin did not run especially fast in his victory (unadjusted for his trip).  It is even possible that to a lesser degree Curlin was impacted by chasing them to get into contention during the very hot middle.

[xichibanx]

Steroids do not make you hallucinate now it may be PCP or in Beyer\'s case high blood pressure pills...

[Silver Charm]

Fkach,

Years ago someone (Paul Westphal??) once said 75% of the guys in the NBA were using Blow. Was his number right? Should he have said it?

Were Steroids illegal in baseball? Why then were Barry Bonds/Roger Clemons and company lying when asked about them. Why did they not just say yes we used them?

I mentioned some names in a previous post. If they used Steroids did they cheat if they were legal? The answer is no. Are their horses performing poorly now because they are not using them? We do not know that.

Here is where the Westphal comment is tied in. It becomes guilt by association. Every guy you look at that has a bad night, a bad day, a bad meet it is because he was using juice. Or now he is not.

The innocent guys get pulled in with the guilty guys.

[Rick B.]

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> The innocent guys get pulled in with the guilty
> guys.

That\'s the bitch about using evidence instead of hard proof. Can\'t have it both ways, where it convicts the guys we don\'t like, while the guys we do like get a free pass.

[Boscar Obarra]

miff Wrote:
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> \"Will be interesting to see the fig. That last 1/8
> was really plowhorse time\".
>
> Box,
>
> Beyer app 112,TG app neg-3, the sometimes strange
> results of the projection methodology which do not
> appear to stack up with what you just saw. Doesn\'t
> matter that he staggered on his belly late and
> they ran the last 3/8ths in 39.73.The poster
> example of an \"ugly\" fig.
>
>
> Mike


 Does any serious player give a rats behind what # Beyer gives?   I give anything he assigns 10 points  of \'legroom\' in either direction.

[Lost Cause]

Silver Charm Wrote:
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> Lost Cause. You are aptly named.
>
> Commentator has lost once this year when hooked in
> a speed duel in the Met Mile while spotting
> weight. If he is not under consideration after
> another win and say the Cigar Mile then the system
> is broken.
The problem with that comment is that Commentator has only won his other races this year when left alone on relatively easy or loose leads..

In your honest opinion...If you look deep down..do you believe that horse @ 1 1/8th miles could ever beat Curlin or for that matter Heatseeker if he were still running ..Never...That horse can only win races when left alone on the lead..If the other speed does not break badly in the Whitney nobody would be talking about Commentator right now..HE is a good horse but he is not top notch at least not in my eyes..

[jma11473]

Great points on the steroids Barry. While some small barns or really old-school trainers might not have used steroids or used them selectively, you have to figure that most of the horses Curlin has been facing were from connections that could afford them and used them to compete at the highest levels. So, if he\'s off of them (as we\'re speculating), they\'re off them too. Makes sense to me, though of course we don\'t have proof of any of it. The patterns (so to speak) wil lbe easier to spot looking back a couple years from now when the game is hopefully cleaner. Hopefully.