Did Big Brown bear in and out in the stretch?

[covelj70]

I was just watching the replay of the Preakness.

This is an honest question, I am not being a wiseguy and I am not trying to see something that isn\'t there but, did Big Brown bear in and bear out in the stretch?

The replay I am watching is fuzzy so I honestly can\'t tell but it seems to me like he did which would be a weird thing for a horse that supposedly didn\'t expend any energy to do.

I know he made a beeline for the grandstand after the wire which is a weird thing for a horse to do that suppossedly didn\'t expend any effort in race.

Again, total disclaimer, the quality of the replay I am watching is brutal so I really can\'t tell for sure so I am trying to get other\'s opinions.

[congaree1]

You are obsessed!

[JR]

no.

[covelj70]

fair enough, perhaps I should shut it down for the day and come back fresh tomorrow.  Maybe I am trying to hard to see things that aren\'t there.

Thanks alot.

[miff]

Cove,

Even in the mornings BB can sometimes be all over the place, Tricky does not know why but he is still a very young horse growing into his body. In the derby, he did some funny stuff with his head while shifting in at about the 1/8th pole.Yes he did(to a lesser extent) have some slight stretch \"unsmoothness\" on a very clear replay that I have watched many times.What it means, if anything, is open to pure speculation.

Horses have all kinds of weird running habits/action which cannot be explained sometimes. Any unorthodox action by a horse in the stretch is SOMETIMES the manner in which a horse displays stress,discomfort, pain or the onset of exhaustion.

Mike

[BitPlayer]

After the Derby, I read a quote from Larry Jones commending Gabriel Saez for getting Eight Belles to the outside after the wire.  His theory was that the inside of the track is a bit chewed up from the race, so that the outside is safer.

[big18741]

Covel

He came out a path or two then back in slightly.DRF charts didn\'t have it,maybe TG will give him a Bo?

What Miff said.

[covelj70]

thanks for this.  Sincerely appreciate the thoughts.

The problem is, I am more confused that ever.  The first two responsders say definitively no that he didn\'t bear in and out and the last two said yes but it doesn\'t matter.  

I certainly understand that there can be different reasons for bear in and bear outs and it doesn\'t always mean that a horse is injured, exhausted, etc BUT if the bear in and out in the Preakness stretch run is just his normal antics, then how come he didn\'t do that in Derby?  He wasn\'t really asked for alot in either stretch run as Kent D. only hit him twice in the Derby and then just showed him the stick the rest of the way so if it was just him goofing off in the Preakness, I would have thought he would have done the same in the Derby.

Seems to me there\'s some chance that between the regression in the numbers and the antics in the stretch that we are already seeing signs that these efforts are taking alot out of him.  

I promise it will be the final time I will say this until just before the race because I feel like I am already beating a dead horse (poor choice of words, sorry) but he doesn\'t have as much wiggle room in the Belmont as he did in the Preakness because the horses in the Belmont are (numerically) alot better than anything he faced in the Preakness and he will be running his 3 race in 5 weeks while all of the others will be fresher.  

Seems to me the signs for further regression are there and that creates a big opportunity.

That\'s it from me, I am starting to annoy myself with all of this so I can\'t imagine how everyone else must feel

[big18741]

Those who said no obviously didn\'t watch a HEAD ON replay.

I\'m not saying it didn\'t matter-only that it isn\'t the first time he\'s been erratic in the lane.

[miff]

Big,

Agree, but it should be noted that looking at the head-on of most races shows  horses not running a perfectly straight course since they are tiring and under the stick.


Mike

[fkach]

As long as we are on this topic, let me ask a question.

We all know that bearing in/out is sometimes a sign of a horse in some distress.

Has anyone ever actually studied the probabilities of an X for horses that bore in/out last out vs. the average horse?

Has anyone ever actually studied the ROI for favorites that bore in/out last out vs. the average horse?

[covelj70]

I think someone posted those numbers on the board a few weeks back.  As I recall, it was a very high percentage that were \"x\" or \"off\" in their next race.

[imallin]

BB was all over the stretch in the Fla Derby. Watch the Fla Derby head on carefully. Its not pretty.