Some observations from Belmont this AM

[covelj70]

I got a chance to spend about 4 hours at Belmont this morning and there were some interesting observations.  Sorry for not posting this earlier but I got tied up after I got back from the track.

In terms of the Belmont horses, the bottom-line is that Denis of Cork is clearly the one that looked the best this morning.  He wanted to do alot more than his planned gallop.  David Carroll was aboard for the gallop and when he came up the shute to go back to get his bath, the horse actually jogged back to Shug\'s barn where he is staying instead of the normal walk back.  I got a chance to chat with David for about 10 minutes while the horse was getting a bath and David said the horse was looking to do alot more than gallop today and that he\'s happy and ready to go tomorrow which is how it appeared to me.  He did have a little mark/skin rash on his coat where the saddle cloth goes which I usually don\'t like but given how happy and energetic he was, I don\'t want to make too much out of that.  David commented that he felt like the horse really went into the Derby with no prep at all since the Illinois Derby was such a non-effort and David also commented that while the Derby took alot out of the horse (especially since he is light framed), he has really recovered over the last 3 weeks and is doing better than he was coming into the Derby.

Based on the sheet pattern and what I saw this morning, Denis of Cork is my key horse tomorrow.  

I also got to see Macho Man, Tale of Ekati and Big Brown.

Tale of Ekati put in a vigorous jog but I didn\'t think he looked very well at all.  He had bell boots on (which I don\'t remember him wearing before the Derby) and he looked didn\'t look like he had the same fluidity or energy that Denis had.  Now, full disclosure, I got a chance to chat with Haskin for awhile and he thought TOE looked very good but I was with several trainers and others to watch the gallop and none of them thought TOE looked good.

Macho again just jogged a very very easy mile.  He looks happy and fluid and I think he will run his race tomorrow.  I don\'t know if he\'s quite fast enough but I am using him because I don\'t think some of the others are doing well at all (TOE And CD)

In terms of Big Brown, he had a very easy (as planned) jog but the interesting thing is that he stayed on his wrong lead all the way down the stretch.  This is noteworthy in that he hasn\'t been doing that regularly so take that for what it\'s worth.  It may be nothing but it may be another sign that these efforts are taking it out of him.  

For the other races, Kirian\'s barn all but told me not to use Shakis.  The turf still has some give in it according to them and he hates the give in the turf so he\'s off almost all of my tickets.  Finally, I thought Indian Blessing looked magnificent so I will use her heavier than I was planning on along with Zaftig in the Acorn.

I will spend most of my money tomorrow on the multi-race exoctics and, based on the sheets and what I saw this AM:

Denis of Cork is my key. I will also use Macho on some tickets and Anak Nakal, Ready\' Image and TOE (just in case) on some small tickets.  I am alive (just like the rest of the world) to all of them in the double for some decent dough and I only hope to be for the pick 6 and pick 4 but those sequneces are no gimmies, that\'s for sure.

Good luck to everyone tomorrow.

[mjellish]

Hey Jim,

Let me be the first to say thanks for the great post.  I\'m back in Minneapolis now and was not there today to see any of this.  Very good info.  Was going to call you but never had any time.

[covelj70]

my pleasure MJ.

Good luck today.

[fkach]

It\'s interesting that you say TOE didn\'t look good because his serious works leading up the race have been better than anything he\'s done all spring.

To me the 12F looks like a serious question mark, but if this was a 9F race I would have expected a new top and would probably be keying on him in exotics. At 12F, I\'ll probably leave him out unless his relative price is quite a bit higher than it looks based on the doubles. (relative because CD is out).