ROTW

[derby1592]

I figure its time to post on something other than the Fix Six and it has been a while since I have seen any posts on this board about the ROTW so I thought I would start one.

I think Sassy Hound looks like a good play at 5-1 or higher, which is very likely given the 12-1 morning line.

Thunderello is clearly the horse to beat but he and Rusty Spur are likely to carve out brutal fractions. Thunderello has shown that he can handle a hot pace but he is coming off a very big effort in the BC and may react.

Most of the rest of the field is likely to get cooked chasing the hot pace. Only a few of them have shown that they can lay off a very hot pace and still run their figure. That group includes Sassy Hound along with Deer Run and D\'Wildcat. Sassy Hound is the fastest of those three at the weights. Recently he shows a reverse telescoping pattern (I just made that up) with every other race a top and the last 2 the strongest in the sequence (both the top and the reaction). There is a chance that the negative fig 2 back may take its toll but he has a history of stringing together good efforts and I like the near-term pattern. At the likely price he looks very playable.

Deer Run also could get a piece given that he is as consistent as any 5yo sprinter that I have seen. D\'Wildcat is a bit more of a stretch given his line and the weight but if he is ever going to run another big race this is probably the time for it. Still, at the odds he is not worth a bet.

Boston Common has to be respected but he is a need the lead type and he has never seen the sort of pace he is likely to see tomorrow. The same goes for the rest of the field although, at the price it might be worth tossing in Outstander.

In summary, I think the key horse is Sassy Hound. You probably cannot toss Thunderello from the exotics but you can hope that he regresses some and thus opens the door for Deer Run and Outstander.

Good luck.

Chris