Met Mile

[JR]

How is it that Lord Snowden and Premium Wine aren\'t coupled?

[sekrah]

Same trainer don\'t matter.. Different owners.  Zayat owns Premium Wine and Z Humor.


My weak-ass analysis:

Commentator wins this easily.

Divine Park a clear underneath, and probably the A-Entry and Lord Snowden as well must be used  But I\'m going to key up heavily underneath with #6 Kiss The Kid.  I think shortening up is plus for him.  That 1 1/8 and 1 3/16 stuff is a bit too long for him.

8 with 4,6 with 1,2,4,6  will be the basis of my exotics.

[Uncle Buck]

Rotten race. Weakest Met Mile I can ever remember. PASS

[Michael D.]

the entry looks good. Premium Wine for the reasons Jerry mentions, and Z looking to pop a new top under 108 lbs.

I\'m tossing Commentator at low odds and high weight.

Divine Park is solid with two graded wins at 1m and the fast fig last.

Lord Snowdon (12-1 ml) fits here with the fast pace and Cornelio saving all the ground from behind.

key the Lord at long odds, and box the 1, 2, 4.

[BitPlayer]

I note the comment in the ROTW analysis regarding Frankel being chilly in the last 90 days.  Frankel\'s runs-based stats are indeed off, but his TG-based stats are actually slightly improved.  What\'s the rationale for relying on the runs-based stats?

I saw the ROTW on TVG, but didn\'t see a photo of TGJB.  Did I miss it, or did it get cut?

[TGJB]

The photo didn\'t get cut, I refused to send it. When I get a decent one I will.
I didn\'t see the piece, how did it look? Could you see the things I was pointing out?

For complicated reasons taht have to do with the way we calculate the figure-based stats I actually prefer the other ones. At some point when we get some time (God knows when that will be) we will review the figure based ones. Richie will be happy.

[BitPlayer]

The piece is hard for me to evaluate, since I had already read the ROTW and knew where you were going.  The graphics were fine, in terms of being able to see what you were pointing out.  A couple of comments:

I think the negative numbers might have confused someone not used to seeing your data.

In the graphics where you showed narrow shots of the figs you were talking about, you might consider using a balloon and an arrow, so that it\'s easier for the viewer to put the number in the context of the sheet.

If you sent over a summary slide telling how you would play the race, they cut it.  They played your voice over the their standard graphic showing the horses and their morning line odds.

[TGJB]

I marked up sheets asking them to highlight certain things. They said they will do some things differently next week.

[Silver Charm]

Took the 1 here

good odds and weight with competitive number in last

devine park to bounce, comentator to be hooked

[Silver Charm]

Glad they decided to press the pace with the 1A today.

Come home in 27 and 1 and have no horse underneath.

[richiebee]

JB:

Ah yes, my pet peeve...

On a TG downloaded this week, trainer Barclay Tagg shows a \"Last 90 days\"
run based win percentage of 16% based on a 116 runner sample.

Barclay\'s \"Last 90 days\" TG Fig based sample is based on 63 runners and shows
that 30% of those 63 runners posted a new top while another 37% \"paired\" (wow).

Can not entertain any argument that states that the data would not be more
informative if based on the same runners.

Barclay by the way is Belmont\'s leading trainer with 11 wins from 30 starters
going into today\'s card.

Other \"graphic\" observations:

Bobby Frankel-- under his TG figure based stats, if you read his \"pair\" column
vertically, almost the entire column is bold faced. Interestingly, looking back
to Empire Maker\'s 03 Belmont graph, Frankel\'s TG figure based pair column
is similarly bold. (And indeed EM hung up \"0\"s in four straight races-- Fla
Derby, Wood, Ky Derby and Belmont Stakes).

I have always thought that more could be made of the Sire Profile stats with
regard to distance-- add a category such as \"9 furlongs and over\"? Or
distinguish somehow between one turn and two turn races?

Enough Already-- Jerry why don\'t you see if you can find a picture of yourself
from that Dartmouth Derby party that you mentioned?

[TGJB]

Richie- man, you have a good memory. If anyone posted a photo from that party I might be out of business. On the other hand, nobody would recognize me.