An anecdote about why using visual over numbers is dangerous

[covelj70]

Jimbo,

Couldn\'t the slow Beyer number in the Derby be because he was 4w and 4w into a stiff headwind which is why the TG number was so big and why TG\'s are so much better than Beyer\'s in the first place?

Mike,

Got word this AM that High Finance will be coming back in the True North on the undercard on Belmont Day.  Should be fun.

[miff]

Jim,

Your point is well taken. I am a little surprised that Jerry thinks that Beyer has BB slow since by my conversion formula Beyer and TG are very close as is Rags in the Derby.

Jim, you must remember that Beyer people do not use ground loss and they admit that if you do consider ground loss in the derby then you could get the derby faster than they have it.Jerry also spoke of wind factor in the derby.All considered I think they all got it right in terms of their different formulas.

Many at DRFdo not argue that TG and Rags have the derby as the fastest ever run by their methodologies.Your last comment is something I completely agree with.In the absence of science, some figures will always be controversial whether you are a figure maker or just an informed follower.

Mike

[jimbo66]

Mike,

I can\'t find Jerry\'s post, but it was after the Derby when I commented about Beyer giving a slow figure.  You posted about the conversion and he said something about you shouldn\'t have adjusted for weight, because they all carried 126.  I could be wrong, but I took that to mean that by JB\'s calculation, Beyer didn\'t have the DErby as fast as TG did, even with the ground loss factored out.

JB and Michael D,

Since Michael is bringing up the \"are horses getting faster\" topic, would it be a good time for me to question the figure given to High Limit in the Louisiana Derby again???  


Jim

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- No.

[jma11473]

I know your overall point was larger than this one aspect, but isn\'t it ironic that your thread title was about how using visual over numbers is dangerous, yet you have several posts about how the horse \"apparently\" weaving in the stretch is a bad sign? Why use visual evidence in a thread about how visual evidence is less meaningful than numbers?

[covelj70]

it is kind of funny but I think you understand that using visual to identify bear ins and outs (or not) is one thing but using visual to identify how great a race was given the margin of victory or suppossed ease of the win is another.

[Michael D.]

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo-- No.


LOL.


and Jim, Jerry brought it up, not me.

[Michael D.]

covelj70 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jimbo,
>
> Couldn\'t the slow Beyer number in the Derby be
> because he was 4w and 4w into a stiff headwind
> which is why the TG number was so big and why TG\'s
> are so much better than Beyer\'s in the first
> place?
>
> Mike,
>
> Got word this AM that High Finance will be coming
> back in the True North on the undercard on Belmont
> Day.  Should be fun.


great, looking forward to it.

do you think 6f is long enough for him? wasn\'t his most impressive race at a flat mile at Bel? did you think Met Mile at all?

[covelj70]

Mike,

you know this horse better than I do

One turn mile is definitely his best gig but he wasn\'t going to be ready to run a mile against that caliber right off the shelf so we try the True North at 6f with the idea that

a) not too many are likely to show up agaist Benny the Bull so we shouldn\'t catch too tough a field other than him, and

b) he can use that as a stepping stone to the Tom Fool which is 7f, a better distance for him as you point out.

The race he ran last Memorial Day would have been good enough to win the Met Mile a week later (on the sheets and other figs).

[fkach]

Miff,

For the record, Beyer did tinker with the Derby number because of the wind in the stretch. It would have been even lower if he didn\'t tinker. (I think it was about 3 points).