Big Brown Beyer = 100

[Perfect Drift]

IMO, he\'s toast in the Belmont.  He must have regressed multiple TG points (back to ~0).  

Everyone is amazed at his ramping down near the wire... doesn\'t matter, the stress was already done by that point.  

Can\'t wait to see him try and run the last 1/4 mile around Big Sandy... he\'s probably going to have the lead (a la Real Quiet & Smarty) and one or more will be taking a run.

[Uncle Buck]

Can I PLEASE book ALL your Belmont Stakes bets? PLEASE?

[covelj70]

Buck, what kind of odds will you give me on the field against Big Brown?

Maybe you can book mine?

[Uncle Buck]

LOL. Obviously my point was I think Perfect Drift is either in major denial or has eye trouble. \"The stress had already been done at that point?\" BB might have exerted himself for about 220 yards in the Preakness. And that\'s a conservative estimate. Probably more like 150 yards just to get 5 lengths of separation.

Or maybe I\'m the one in denial. Maybe some of you see something I don\'t. All you have to go by in this game is past performances, both figure-wise and what\'s on video tape. I\'ve seen nothing that makes me thing BB has run his best yet. My predicter has been pretty good this Spring. After predicting April 10th that BB would crush the Derby no matter his post, I came back on last week and predicted Gayego would run DEAD LAST in Baltimore. Sorry. I missed by one position:-)

ALl BB does is lay over his 3 yo peers with speed to burn and class. If you really want to make a $5 side bet for giggles and \"I told ya so\'s\", I\'ll give you 8-1 on the field vs BB. How could you pass that up? Send me a PM with your mailing addy and if BB loses - a money order will come via US mail in the amount of $40. If you lose - buy me a diet Coke at the Breeder\'s Cup in Santa Anita. I will limit my offer to Perfect Drift and covelj70.

[covelj70]

sounds awesome, friendly wager for $5 taking the field against BB getting 8-1, very sportmanlike of you, lot of fun.  Thanks

My thought is that while he has clearly been the best so far, the one\'s coming after him in the Belmont will be fresher and capable of getting there if the PReakness took more out of him that it seemed visually which has been my experience as an owner.

Also, for whatever it\'s worht, I just talked to the head of the group that manages Macho Again and he is looking likely to run in the Belmont.  I know he\'s not going to scare any sheet players but I will at least think twice before throwing him out (Again) in the Belmont to the extent he paired his top.

Finally, I am off to Vegas this week.  Last time I was there, they were offering great odds on the field in the BC classic.  Doesn\'t that seem like a good play since Asmussen isn\'t likely to run Curlin on the SA Synthetic?  Thoughts on that anyone?

[Uncle Buck]

That was another prediction I made yesterday - re: Macho Again. I knew that after seeing him finish and gallop out past BB that both handicappers and his connections alike would automatically think he had a shot in the Belmont.

To my eyes it was a simple case of two horses exerting themselves at different times. BB made his quick run for about a 1/16th of a mile while MA really got set down at the 1/8th pole through the wire. Different runs at different times. If they both put in their Belmont runs at the same time, BB draws off in hand.

Macho Again might get a piece of the Belmont gimmicks. I won\'t be playing Belmont Day. I\'ll simply be waiting for the coronation in my old brown tee shirt

[Perfect Drift]

Hey Uncle.. I still am being paid off from Smarty Jones Belmont :-)

Check out his figures from the archive room and go on You Tube and find his Preakness.  It\'s bigger and better than Brownie\'s. He looked unbeatable... until the 1/8 pole.. when he staggered home.

Seriously, Brownie will never run as big a race as the Derby.  Never.