I've got bad news and I've got good news.

[horseprofiler]

The bad news is I\'m a fool. The good news is I\'m not alone. Think about it. You can always count on the general public to do what they did with Big Brown, make an odds on favorite of the horse who has been winning regardless of any negatives the horse may have.
     Thorograph\'s analysis of the race gave you a shot at making a big score. The fact they put it up free for all to see is commendable.
     The main difference between myself and the general public is that I am going to change. Never again will I let my visual observations lead me to believe that a horse is great. I didn\'t bet on Big Brown, but I didn\'t bet against him, either.
     What happened to me is what happened to the general public. There was over five million dollars bet on Big Brown to win.
     I am going to be waiting for the next Big Brown and I will bet against him in the future. When you do this, you are going to lose sometimes when the horse does win, but you are eventually going to get your shot at a big score when he falters.
     Being a son of the cheap stud Boundary, he had already outrun his pedigree many times. Desormeaux shouldn\'t have eased him as there were so many people watching and that didn\'t increase anyone\'s confidence in the integrity of the sport.
     Good luck to all.

[jbelfior]

You\'re right. The general public, especially in these high profile races, buys into the hype.

Every day, most horseplayers think in a linear fashion.


So, OK you change and start being a contrarian. Now tell me how do you beat a Big Brown with a Da\'Tara?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[miff]

Joe B,

Thats easy.Put all the names in a hat except BB and pick one. Your chances are 1 in 8, not bad.


Mike