TGJB, I can't remember if you are nice enough

[covelj70]

to post the Preakness figures up on the board like you do for the Derby or if we have to order up Big Brown\'s number through the Horseman\'s site?

Want to see what his pattern looks like before I head back to Vegas this week to see if I should increase the play against him to win the triple crown.

If he is going in the wrong direction (say 2 negative or so), then I think he\'s much more beatable in the Belmont than the consensus seems to think and I will take a stab at the Wynn this week.

I am sure many will disagree but I haven\'t found the \"geared down\" or \"didn\'t have to run hard\" arguments very compelling historically.  Many times, these horses won\'t run any faster if you ask them so not being whipped in the stretch doesn\'t mean they could have run faster.

Thanks

[TGJB]

Preakness numbers will be up in a few days.

[covelj70]

Thank you very much

[Flighted Iron]

I couldn\'t disagree more in THIS case.

[covelj70]

That\'s cool, disagreement is good but it\'s more helpful if you explain WHY you disagree instead of just saying you disagree, no?

[miff]

\"I am sure many will disagree but I haven\'t found the \"geared down\" or \"didn\'t have to run hard\" arguments very compelling historically. Many times, these horses won\'t run any faster if you ask them so not being whipped in the stretch doesn\'t mean they could have run faster\"



Cov,

Agree and there are many that do respond to the whip, but there is a substantial difference between a horse being shut down, like BB, and one going his all out best to the wire. There is little doubt BB would have separated further from the pack if Kent D had ridden him harder the last eighth of a mile.


Mike

[covelj70]

fair enough

do you have any guess as to how much (on the TG scale) that this \"shut down\" might have cost him.

Are we talking about the difference between a 2 negative and a 3 negative or a 2 negative and a 2.25 negative.

If it\'s the former, I think that\'s a big deal and the \"pro forma\" pattern heading into the Belmont looks solid, if it\'s the latter, then the point still holds and he\'s going in the wrong direction for the Belmont.

thanks, good thoughts

[1leprechaun]

luckyleprechaun

[miff]

Cove,

Don\'t know. Anyone could speculate but it is reasonable to think that 3-4 more lengths was within his scope given the unbelievable manner which this horse separates from the field when asked.I think if he was ridden out to the wire, his TG fig could have been app 2 points faster than what Jerry will give him.Having said that, I also feel it will have little to do with his next performance except that maybe he was saved some additional stress not having been forced to reach all the way down to win the Preakness.

Conventional wisdom says the cumulative effect of these neg figs will catch up to him but WHEN is most difficult to gauge with confidence.I saw your post re his Belmont opponents and DOC or TOE have no chance of outrunning this horse by any data/measuring stick.He would have to X for those horses to beat him.Casino Drive is a danger if he moves forward and BB regresses.I wish that Harlem Rocker and Lieutenant Ron were well and running in this race as I believe that they will surpass the common Derby and Preakness also rans before the racing year ends, barring setbacks.

Good Luck in Vegas!

Mike

[Flighted Iron]

But at about the quarter pole, Big Brown was set free, and that was that.

\"I just let him go,\" Desormeaux said. \"Bye-bye! Wheee!\"

Desormeaux never even raised his whip on Big Brown, and by the sixteenth pole, he was easing the colt, with the win margin for the 1-5 favorite officially being 5 1/4 lengths.

\"I wanted to save something for the Belmont,\" he said.

I\'m intrigued by Kent\'s comments regarding saving something.He didn\'t say energy,
but it\'s highly inarguable that wasn\'t his wordly intent.The energy he saved may
or may not be there for the bemont,but that isn\'t the question.

  When speaking of releasable or available power as seems to be in THIS case
stated by Desormeaux,pure physics apply.

Best of luck,
MJS

[TGJB]

As a famous dinasour said to me when I was just starting out in this game, just because they might have been able to run faster this time doesn\'t mean they get to use that energy next time.

Yes, if he had been fully extended it would have been even worse. But whatever that figure ends up being, it was not a workout. BB has to deal with having put in those two efforts two weeks apart, whether he could have run faster Saturday or not.

[ronwar]

If you take a look at the replay of the Smarty Jones Preakness, you can really see the difference in the way the horses were handled.  Smarty was 5 lengths in front and was \"ridden\" to the wire.  BB was wrapped up on and almost galloped home