I could have missed it as I was travelling yesterday and didn\'t get to go through all of the posts but I haven\'t seen anyone mention how much more weight most of these will carry Sat compared to their last race:

Macho +9lbs
Tres Borrachos +8 lbs
Icabad Crane +10 lbs
Yankee Bravo +4 lbs
Behindatthebar +9 lbs
Racecar Rhapsody +9 lbs
Kentucky Bear +3
Stevil +3
Riley Tucker +9
Giant Moon +3

when we adjust the TG numbers for the weight they will be carrying this race, doesn\'t Giant Moon look like a standout underneath Big Brown?

The other horses that looked fast enough to contend (for 2nd and 3rd) are all picking up huge weight which makes their adjusted figures look even worse than they did already.

Maybe I am missing something.

BB over Giant Moon cold exacta is my play.

TGJB: You are indeed missing something. The weight they carried in previous races is already built into the figures for those races, and they are all carrying the same weight today, so it\'s a non-issue.

covelj70: whoops, sorry.  maybe this is a sign that I should leave the race alone given that I forgot one of the basic tennants

Barry Irwin: Weight only matters when there is a difference in the amount carrier between the competitors.

jbelfior: I agree Barry, except for Macho Again who is carrying that anchor on his back!!


Good Luck,
Joe B.

SoCalMan2: There has been something bugging me for a while regarding weight.  

As I understand it, the horses do not actually carry what they are reported to carry.  Rather, the amount reported that they carry is the minimum they carry.  Horses can and do carry more than the reported weight.  

As I understand, the situation where this extra \"carried but unreported\" weight arises is where a jockey\'s protective equipment results in an overweight.  For overweight purposes, protective equipment is not counted.  Now, I think jockey\'s should carry all the protective equipment necessary and I do not think protection should be sacrificed one iota.  However, I think that the betting public is entitled to accurate information about weight carried by horses.  The two principles of maximum safety and accurate public reporting of vital information are fairly simply and should not be contradictory.

To me, the answer to this is simple, the scale of weights should be increased across the board by the weight of protective equipment.  That way, the protective equipment will not be the cause of any overweights.

(I am also for increasing the scale of weights (in some form of pro rata basis) to reflect the fact that humans in general are larger than they were when the scale of weights was developed.  To me, it is ludicrous that we do not raise these weights some and the argument that it is dangerous for the horses is again an apology for shortcomings resulting from drug use.  The danger to the horses is also ludicrous when compared to the danger to the jockeys (not just in terms of equipment but also health from improper diet).   However, I recognize that preserving the outdated historical baseline of the scale of weights is a sacred cow to some morons and I am trying here to separate that discussion from the question of accurate public reporting of vital information.)

The following may be proprietary information of Thorograph, so Jerry, please feel free not to answer, but I am curious if you accept the reported jockey weights at face value or whether you have developed your own jockey riding weights so that you can be better informed than the public at large.  I know that for some jockeys, the amount of the unreported safety equipment overweight can be as much as 5-6 pounds.  Thus, when Corey Nakatani is is 2 pounds overweight, he might actually be 7 pounds overweight in ocmparison to some of the other jockeys in the race who are actually making their assigned weight with the protective equipment included.

I also recognize that this issue could be quite explosive due to the unjust prosecution of NYRA clerk of scales officials.  However, in my view, that unjust prosecution should not tarnish discussion of giving the public accurate information.

Also, one interesting tidbit, I seem to recall reading a book years ago (mid-eighties maybe) probably by Beyer or Davidowitz where a character would go to bush tracks and estimate jockey weights visually.  Basically, it was well known that the reported weights were just plain old wrong and a person who believed in the importance of weight and had a good eye for seizing up a persons weight could gain an advantage. I think this was at the old Massachusetts fair circuit, but I could be wrong.

miff: Except, some horses are stronger than others and carry the higher weights without too much of an adverse effect on performance.It\'s a kinda x factor not really too relevant to todays racing where weight handicaps are a joke. When handicaps were real 10+ years or so back, there were some tremendous weight carriers.


Mike