Gayego going to run in Preakness, 3rd race in 5 weeks...

[covelj70]

...and people wonder why horses break down?  Brilliant.  

Absolutely no reason to run the horse in this spot.

It\'s really funny how everyone is lining up to take on Big Brown. Looks like it could be a 13 horse field ig Gayego is a go.

[miff]

\"It\'s really funny how everyone is lining up to take on Big Brown. Looks like it could be a 13 horse field ig Gayego is a go\"



Cov,

They are hoping that BB does not have the resiliency necessary to come back so soon. They all know they can\'t outrun him and if he\'s going to fall apart they want to be there when he may be vulnerable.We have to assume that their horse is doing well. He got bumped by BB out of the gate, ran into a wall of horses early and was wrangled by Smith to stay off heels while rank.Didn\'t do much running, so maybe he\'s still fresh.

Mike

[covelj70]

Mike,

All fair points but the fact remains that he is a son of Gilded Time and while he ran well in the Arkansas Derby, he simply isn\'t bred to run 1 1/4 or even 1 3/16.  He bounced badly out of the Arkansas Derby and it\'s doubtful he\'s going to return to form on only 2 weeks rest.

With that said, who do we think has a shot if BB does react?

Macho Again ran a big number in the Derby Trial (I think a 0 on TG) but he has been much better sprinting and is coming back on only 3 weeks rest after a big effort himself.

Kentucky Bear came back nicely in the Blue Grass after the 2nd race bounce but what\'s the best we can hope for, another \"3\" in the Preakness.

Giant Moon ran some decent figs before his disastrous Gotham set him back and he ran ok in the Wood (which was at least partly vindicated by TOE\'s 4th place Derby finish)

Behindatthebar ran a decent figure in the Lexington so maybe he has a shot.

I won\'t bet Big Brown on Sat but unless we are playing him for a 5 or 6 point reaction, then I don\'t know if anyone can beat him even if they run back to their top so I (gasp!!) may not be betting.

[basket777]

HEY BYRN!!!!!

[jimbo66]

I have to agree with Basket777 here.  There are probably only two horses that have a top fast enough to be competitive here (and only if Big Brown bounces 4 or 5 points).  They are Gayego and his \"0\" and Hey Byrn and his negative 1.   I make Hey Byrn both a longer shot to win and much more likely to run his negative 1.  I don\'t have his sheet in front of me, but from memory, he ran his negative 1 in February or so.  He reacted next time out at Gulfstream, although still won handily.  He then fell apart in the Florida Derby, running a big \"x\".  He wheeled back in that stakes race and I didn\'t see the number, but it didn\'t seem especially fast at the time.  But it was no doubt an improvement on the Florida Derby.  Now he could move forward.  It has been a good 12 weeks or more since the big top at Gulfstream and he is getting a month coming into this race.  At 25-1 or more, he could be a good key here and has a shot to run back to his top, which would be better than anybody else in this race, barring Big Brown.

[covelj70]

Hey Byrn seems like as good a shot as any but we don\'t like the fact that it\'s taking him so long to come back to his top right?

JB, shouldn\'t a healthy 3 year old come back to his top in 3 races or less?

I didn\'t see his Holy Bull number but it clearly wasn\'t a 1 negative so it\'s been three races now since his top.

Still probably worth a shot at a price on Sat. but I would like it better if he had come back to that big number sooner.

[miff]

Cov,

I really wasn\'t talking distance but Gayego kinda outran his pedigree in the Arkansas Derby, no?

Gotta bet the Preakness,it\'s un-american not to.My take is to try to turn BB into some value in the exotics. Short rest is one of Tricky\'s strengths as a trainer,it may be his strongest suit.If anything,I notice that Tricky has BB in exceptionally light training at CD since the derby. His feet are doing well according to his connections.

Trying to quantify BB\'s resiliency is impossible regardless of what is said by the connections or what any figs seem to indicate. Resiliency is the only question BB has yet to fully answer.


Mike

[covelj70]

Mike,

you are totally right, not playing the preakness is totally unamerican and unsportmanlike.  I shouldn\'t let getting wipped out on the Derby deter me from getting back on the horse (pun intended).

In all seriousness, there have been some decent exotic payouts over the years even with the chalk on top so that may be the way to go.

Unless of course we can all convince ourselves on this board that Hey Byrn can run back to that top?