Pace Numbers For The Derby

[mjellish]

Here are the pace numbers I am working with.  They are from a colleague who calculates his own numbers and I have found them to be far superior to anything else that is out there.  He has given me permission to share with this board (thanks Rem).

Anyway, the premise behind the numbers is this.  We break a race down into two segments, early and late.  For the early call, we are not concerned about how fast a horse can run his opening quarter if he can\'t sustain his speed to at least the mid pace call of a race.  This would be to the 1/2 mile in sprints, to the 3/4 pole in most routes, and to the mile call at all classic distances.  The late pace figure then represents whatever is left of the race from there to the finish.  

Unlike other pace numbers, ground loss, and weight are factored into these because they do matter, along with the track variant.  Wind is difficult to track without actually being at the on site and it gusts or changes directions anyway, so our premise is that this will tend to show up in the variant.  

Here\'s how the numbers work.  An early pace number of 100 is scaled to represent the breaking point of a suicidal early pace that is likely to cause a horse to collapse in the stretch.  The raw number for this score varies for distance and from track to track, but it is based upon a compilation of all races run at that track and distance under Fast or Firm conditions after normalizing for variants.  Also, another unique thing is that the pace numbers scale up exponentially for each tick of the clock as a horse actually comes closer to running what we have deemed to be \"TO FAST-TO EARLY\" for that track and distance.  Or in other words we do not believe that all ticks of the clock are equal.  

For example, there is a .4 difference in raw time between a horse going 110.8 or 111.2 to the 3/4 pole.  There is also a .4 difference between a horse going 110.2 and 109.8.  But in the latter case that .4 difference does mean more because the 109.8 may be the actual breaking point for most horses.  Anything exceeding that or coming close to it will usually cause an early runner to collapse in the stretch.  Or in other words, running in 110.2 and hanging on is a very strong performance.  Running in 109.8 and hanging on is unbelievable.  But no horse can go 109.2 flat and hang on, so we may set the threshold of 100=109.6 +- the variant.  It is our belief that this more accurately represents what happens under racing conditions because there are physical limits to how fast a horse can actually run and still keep running.  This may sound quirky, but I believe it is the right way to look at early pace. There is simply a bigger difference between 110.2 - 109.2 vs 112 - 111, even though they both equal 1 second.  Therefore not all ticks are equal.

The late pace numbers then scale the same way, and they help to show you how a horse will tend to distribute his energy, who was really running on late vs just passing the ones that are gassed.  But late pace numbers can really be influenced by troubled trips, getting blocked on the turn, etc.  So I think the strength of these numbers really are in the early figs.  They also really help point out when a horse does something special on the track.

Anyway, here are the early and late numbers for the Derby runners that have assumed a forward position in their last 3 route races:

CCM
68  80
77  84
83  82

TOE
90  68
69  81
X

EB
82  88
72  86
79  90

SA
90  90
77  82
X

BBJ
77  89
68  92
X

MON
68  86
X
71  88

CC
70  85
85  85
79  84

RTG
69  90
69  90
70  87

GA
88  90
71  93
X

BB
103 93
96  92
74  99

Now jockey intent can certainly factor into these numbers, but the way I see it this is a near pace-less race other than BB.  Even the so called front runners are not really very fast.  If I were the connections of GA, RTG, or CC I would be very worried because these horses do not have the early lick to keep up with BB early and still sustain their speed.  IMO they are therefore either going to have to change their running style or get fried if BB runs his race.  BB will simply overpower them, and likely very easily.  He simply has more sustainable speed.  

So the way I see it most of these are bound to be tentatively ridden, in which case BB will most likely try to take this field wire-to-wire.  Or if anyone tries to come out gunning they will be setting themselves up for failure because they do not have the sustainable speed to hang with BB and have anything left for the stretch.  I think the other horse\'s trainers and jockeys realize this, but someone has be in the lead of this thing.
 
Either way I think BB will get a favorable trip without having to go wide on the first turn.  The mid-pack stalkers will also probably be able to comfortably race within themselves in their style of preference and get first run at any of the speed that is likely to have either already been overpowered and or tried to rate.

Just one man\'s thoughts.
 
Also, I would be remiss if I did not put out a word of caution with regards to the numbers for synthetic tracks.  We are still struggling with these numbers for numerous reasons.  Anyone out there who actually thinks they can make sense out of this past Santa Anita meet is probably teaching at MIT.  Also, by our figures the Keenland strip played much differently this Spring than last Spring and Fall.  We saw too many horses run top early pace numbers and hang on where as of last year they couldn\'t.  Not sure why.