The importance of post positions

[Eight Belles]

Here\'s the winning Derby post positions by percentage from starters:

10 (11.9%)
5 (11.3%)
1 (11.1%)
8 (9.4%)
4 (9.3%)
2 (8.3%)
7 (8.0%)
3 (7.4%)
16 (6.9%)
6 (5.7%)
13 (5.6%)
18 (5.5%)
15 (5.4%)
20 (5.0%)
9 (4.4%)
12 (4.0%)
11 (3.7%)
14 (3.2%)
17 (0.0%)
19 (0.0%)

Only 2 horses have won from posts 17 to 20.  One did it by rocketing from the gate and leading gate to wire.  That was Clyde Van Dusen back in 1929 and he was the favorite.  The other, Gato Del Sol, did it the opposite way, strolling out of the gate and trailing the field around until the stretch.

While some horses from the outside posts have finished respectably (like Closing Argument from post 18 finishing 2nd), I do think the outside posts are almost immediate tosses for the win.  The exceptions in this Derby field would seem to be Big Brown (quality speed who can shoot out of there and get near the front by the first turn) and the quality deep-closers like Pyro and Denis of Cork.

[marcus]

i agree - i couldn\'t see why post position mattered in the fillies instance except that if she draws to the extreme inside due to her apparent spirited nature and perhaps rank behavior . sure she loses ground from an outside post but it might put her wide of traffic or trouble to the inside of her during the running of the race ...

[RICH]

............and she drew post 12 for the oaks