BC Distaff - My View

[Labeeb]

Every day I\'m going to post my takes on each race of the BC card, save the Juvenile Fillies. The Juvenile would also be out, but unfortunately it\'s part of the Pick 4. These are going to be pattern reads only. Plays will only be known when the PP\'s are drawn and the odds go up. Unlike those on the competitors board, I\'m not afraid to \"hurt my price\" at the windows...The pool is plenty deep on days like these. Plenty of room to wade.

The BC Distaff has actually been the most successful race for me over the years, scoring with Jewel Princess (OK, not a great price), Spain and Unbridled Elaine. This years running appears to be amongst the most competitive I can remember. Here\'s my thoughts in alphabetical order...

Azeri - Perhaps going to be the shortest price on BC day, maybe moreso than Storm Flag Flying given the difference in field size. As a sheets player, one\'s always looking to beat the chalk. This is no different. She\'s done nothing wrong to this point and looks to replicate her last two efforts. However there are several in here that are just as fast, if not faster and looks VERY vulnerable.

Farda Amiga - Impressive last two since leaving So. Cal., but one wonders if she can improve enough to battle with these, even with the weigh concession. I look for her to run her top again, not break through and thus be out of the picture.

Imperial Gesture - Sheets like her\'s and others are going to be the broken record of this race. It used to be that 1 negative number would result in an \"X\", then 2, now it\'s even 3 or more. Granted it\'s not 3 consecutive, but one has to wonder if the cumulative effects of these races for a 3 year old filly plus the spacing of these efforts is finally going to catch up to her. While a bouncy sort early in her career, she obviously learned a lot over at Al Quoz. I\'m going to lean towards her finally reaching the end of the line after 3 huge races and regresses slightly, however the 4 pound weight break will help.

Mandy\'s Gold - Another that you wonder about given her negative numbers. Although she has run 2 monster efforts at Delaware and Saratoga, she bounced as you\'d expect, but came right back to running when stretched out, which remains the biggest question. I like the face that she got back to where she once was, but ground loss could be a concern for her. I think she has a good shot at repeating her last two, which makes her a player in this field and given the possible price, could be a key in the race for the exotics.

Starrer - Thanks for playing, here\'s your partying gifts.

Summer Colony - This one is much like Mandy\'s Gold, but figures to be much shorter on the toteboard. Big summer efforts, bounced at Delaware, then back to business at the Spa, followed by a regression in the Beldame. Although she did get off to a slow start which compromised her chances I don\'t like the race she ran last out. Perfect spacing given her campaign until then, and still came out a bit flat. She could easily come back to form and be a big factor here, but given the short rest which she doesn\'t normally run on, I think she will repeat her last figure, or back up slightly, which would put her out of contention.

Take Charge Lady - Somewhat interesting. Ran a new top two back off of the long layoff, then regressed slightly. A reaction to the big effort? Possibly. Hard to read. Has some physical problems earlier this year and that plus her likely short odds are scaring me away from her. I think she will run another 0, but will most likely be too short on the board for comfort.

Two Item Limit - Make sure Starrer didn\'t take all the gifts.

As it\'s shaping out right now, Mandy\'s Gold is most likely my \"key\" for the race. She\'s certain to be a square price and hopefully can draw a favorable inside to middle post, although with the small field, ground loss may be less of a factor.

Let me know what you\'re thinking. It\'s verty well possible that at 2:15 AM EST that I\'m missing something...

[Michael D.]

Bill,
Five horses in this race are going to take money: with a few speed types involved, and with Day aboard, look for Farda Amiga to take serious money, I don\'t think many people have given up on Summer Colony\'s two turn game, Take Charge Lady looks fast using any theory, and Bailey takes money period........ I have read about ten opinions on the race now, and not one person likes Azeri on top (including myself)   ....... the odds will be higher than most think. I don\'t think your pick will take much money, just too many big names involved. If Mandy can handle the two turns though, you might have something there. Personally, I think TCL is the fastest and she gets the four lbs. I will use her. I can not give up on SC\'s two turn game without a bad two turn race. I will use her as well. Bailey...hmmmm.. a very, very reluctant toss here. Day has come flying too late a few times in this race, and I guess there is a good chance he does it again here, but I have bet FA in her three dirt races, and I think I have to stick with her in the Cup. As for Azeri, she is an obvious contender, but I think she will go off around 7-5, which is still too low for me. I will focus on TCL, SC, and FA, and let the track conditions determine my pick.

[Marc At]

\"with a few speed types involved, and with Day aboard, look for Farda Amiga to take serious money,\"

This race is being run at Arlington Park (not in KY), and all of the top American jockeys are riding in it, with a vast pool of bettors-- why would Pat Day\'s appearance on Farda Amiga\'s back significantly affect the price on this one?

 \"and Bailey takes money period........\"

Wasn\'t Squirtle Squirt more than 9-1 in last year\'s BC while a horse ridden by Victor Espinoza was less than half the price? It\'s BC Day, Michael-- prices being deflated because of the jockeys shouldn\'t be a big concern. Putting it another way, Edgar Prado hasn\'t won many BC races, has he? Than why will TCL take so much more money than Imperial Gesture?


 \"and not one person likes Azeri on top (including myself) .......the odds will be higher than most think... As for Azeri, she is an obvious contender, but I think she will go off around 7-5, which is still too low for me.\"

You seem confused. \"Most\" don\'t think her odds will be as low as 7-5.