BC Mile / Approach to BC Day Wagering

[richiebee]

SoCalMan pointed out that the takeout on P3s at BC will be 25%, on P4s will be 15%, and suggested that maybe horseplayers should \"buycott\" the P4s and ignore the P3s.

I do not know why there should be such a marked disparity in the takeout on the 2 wagers.

Initially I thought that the P3 wager I would focus on would be the Mile/ Distaff/ Turf Classic sequence. Last year I went 6x6x6 in this wager,including Miesque\'s Approval (Mile) and Red Rocks (Turf Classic) but excluding Round Pond(Distaff). The P3 paid $9371 for $2.

I outsmarted myself in the Distaff last year. I had posted prior to the race that seven runners in the race were fast enough on their TGs to win the race; Round Pond was one of the seven. Unfortunately I had seen Round Pond\'s final prep race at Belmont in person; she ran quite poorly and the memory of this race stuck with me.

The 6x7x6 ticket would have cost $252 for $1 and would have returned $4685,and it is fair to say that these numbers have stuck with me for the last year.

This year I think the P3 which starts with the Sprint and continues with the Mile and the Distaff might present a similar opportunity. These are 3 wide open races, and Midnight Lute might be more vulnerable as a favorite than the short priced favorites Dylan Thomas and English Channel in the Turf Classic.

Some Mile Observations:

1) Three of the Euros who will contend-- Excellent Art,George Washington and Jeremy-- have never run on a \"left handed\" course. [Correction: GW turned left in the 2006 BC Classic at CD; apparently he will be entered in the dirt Classic again this year]

2) Remarkable News has won 9 turf races over 8 different turf courses, and will be saddled by one of America\'s best turf trainers, Angel Penna (Penna\'s Al Basha,an improving NYB 3YO who beat older on the NY Showcase card Saturday, might have a future with open runners).

3) Kip Deville has outfinished many of the American runners in this race(Remarkable News, Purim, After Market, Silent Name). Rich Dutrow has taught this $20,000 Oklahoma bred auction purchase to rate and KD now gives his rider tactical options out of the gate. Dutrow has had 4 BC starters, 2 winners.

4) Trippi\'s Storm\'s and After Market\'s \"wide on the Widener\" runs in the Kelso will probably not translate well on to Monmouth\'s turf course.

5) Interesting: Icy Atlantic won the Red Bank at a flat mile at Monmouth (2 turns) equaling the track record. The fractions in that race: 23.1/ 46.1/ 1:09/ 1:32.2. IA was seventh, beaten 4 lengths, in the Kelso, contested at a mile (1 turn). The fractions: 23.2/45.3/1:09/1:32.1. No wonder the Mth race was given a \"time ?\" annotation on the TGs.

What does it all mean? Without seeing odds or post positions, my feeling is that the 3 main Euros -- Excellent Art, GW and Jeremy-- are all on the ticket despite their lack of \"left handed\" experience, with Kip Deville and Remarkable News the main US contenders. Icy Atlantic\'s Red Bank run (and deceptively close no factor finish in the Kelso) may earn him a spot on the ticket.

[TGJB]

Richie-- the \"time?\" notation means we got a different time, and used ours because it made more sense.

[SoCalMan2]

Does anybody know if I was right about the respective mutuel takes?  If you go to track information for Monmouth, it shows 15% take for pick 4s and 25% take for pick 3s, but I do not know if that is reliable information.  Is there anyway to find out beforehand what the applicable mutuel take will be?  Will the take that applies on Thursday\'s races at Monmouth be the same that applies to the big days?

[hooper]

This from the NTRA web site yesterday regarding take out.
http://www.ntra.com/content.aspx?type=news&id=28925

[SoCalMan2]

Thanks tons!

[flushedstraight]

After skipping last year, they now put up the 300K and he gets the brutal post 14 in the Mile.

Maybe he can pull a Lure?

[JimP]

The post position stats that I saw indicated that outside posts do ok at MTH on the grass at this distance. Now, I agree that post 14 may be a little too much of a good thing. But RN may have enough early speed to not lose too much ground on the first turn.

[jbelfior3]

He had a tough summer after getting sick and missing training.

If he\'s ready to run his \"A\" race, not sure post is that bad considering that
it\'s unlikely the pace will be that quick.

Besides, he\'s already wired from an outside post..... Dixie at Pimlico.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Uncle Buck]

No friggin\' way can he pull a Lure. Lure\'s 5-wide-first-turn .22 & change opening quarter mile performance was one of the best in BC history. Gotta tip your hat to Shug and the horse for being much the best on that day. Concrete SA turf had to help though

[Silver Charm]

North East Bound almost got there from the 14 hole at big odds.

And Silic who I bet out on did get there from the 12 hole.

It can be done.

[flushedstraight]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> North East Bound almost got there from the 14 hole
> at big odds.
>
> And Silic who I bet out on did get there from the
> 12 hole.
>
> It can be done.


If the turf plays the same as it did in 99 at GP (who knows with this rain and the allegedly longer grass?) then the chances from out there are certainly improved... maybe the FMTurf will provide a clue.