ROTW

[123]

When I think of a move up trainer I was thinking of someone who could get better than 25% to 30% tops 1st start trainer change. I\'ll see if I can find any.

[richiebee]

123

I am glad that someone is at least discussing or willing to discuss the entire
notion of a move up trainer. The \"move up trainer\" is mentioned frequently on
the board and might mean different things to different people.
Hopefully one day there will be a formal discussion of the \"MUT\" in the
archives the same way that there are discussions of track surfaces and whether
or not racehorses are running faster.

Part of the problem in discussing the MUT on this board would be that it would
automatically be assumed that all MUTs are involved in performance enhancing
methods which are illegal or in some grey area of legality; this assumption is
not an unfair one, but there are sometimes other factors involved with a
trainer improving the performance of a new acquisition.

With regards to your specific inquiry, I might suggest the following:

A) 25% tops might be something you will not find frequently in the figure based
trainer stats; and

B) is it possible to move a horse up without the horse running a top or even
a pair?

C) the statistic you mention is \"first race after trainer change\". I would
imagine that some trainers are proficient at getting a top performance out of
a new acquisition immediately, while others gradually get improved performance,
maybe in the second or third race after acquisition, maybe after some time off.

Sorry if I have misunderstood your question, or answered a question or
addressed an issue other than the one you are raising. Its the whole Big Ben
syndrome which Stillinger found so amusing.

The identification and understanding of move up trainers will be very important
to me this Winter. The Fair Grounds has migrated to HRTV, and If I cant watch
it, I will not bet on it. That leaves me with NYRA, the innercourse, the inner
tube, the squared circle.(Assuming of course that TVG doesn\'t lose the NYRA
signal, in which case they could change their name to HRBTTV (Harness Racing
and Bush Track Television)).

Unless there are sweeping changes under Hal Handel (not likely) I see winter
racing in NY being dominated by 3 trainers, and understanding when to bet them
(and when to beat them) will be important.

[stillinger]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Unless there are sweeping changes under Hal Handel
> (not likely) I see winter
> racing in NY being dominated by 3 trainers, and
> understanding when to bet them
> (and when to beat them) will be important.

You do mean Ferriola, Moshera, and Serey, right?

[123]

richiebee, good point on the move up happening on the second or third start or even after a short layoff. I also noticed the relationship you were talking about between trainers with high win% yet not extraordinary high % of new tops after a trainer change. Maybe they just spot them better.

[fkach]

There is another phenomenon that is worth mentioning. I would call it the \"move back to top\" trainer. This is a trainer that might not get a new top out of the horse first time, but will often get it to return to its best recent form first out if it has been running poorly lately.

[alm]

Your ROTW analysis convinced me Octave was vulnerable, but not that the filly was not the horse to beat, thus I hit the miniscule tri.

I should have paid closer attention to this post and gone straight on Bear Now.