Pucker Up (RotW)

[Frank]

Your post does read like a commercial. And you are entitled even if some may consider bragging in poor taste. But in the context of this board, the races you have won with horses you have owned or managed is irrelevant. And the fact that you have won these races without the assistance of the best numbers available leads me to the conclusion that you may have done even better had you also used the numbers.

What is relevant here is how you do at the windows. And I surmise that those handicappers with any ability using TG numbers are significantly outperforming the rest especially on the grass.  I use the timeform ratings as well in my handicapping process. They\'re not even close to the figures TG is producing.

Frank

[Michael D.]

Barry Irwin Wrote:
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> The best grass numbers in the world are made by
> Timeform.
>
> There are two Timeform numbers: a) Timefigure, a
> raw number reflecting the time of the race and b)
> Timeform Rating, a subjective number assigned in
> pounds to reflect the quality of the animal.
>
> Because grass races generally lack pace,
> Timefigures are relatively useless.
>
> Timeform ratings, on the other hand, offer the
> worl\'s best assessment of the quality of a
> racehorse.
>
> It is the assessment of a horse that is worth
> considering.
>
> Timefigures are worwhile only in learning if a
> horse ran too fast recently to make him react to
> it.
>
> There are no ratings in the United States that are
> comparable to Timeform\'s and, until somebody
> develops them, numbers generated in our country
> will remain sketchy at best.
>
> FYI, I have never relied on numbers in this
> country for grass racing, because they offer
> little help in running a stable.
>
> I am sure that Jerry does the best job he can and
> that he has had his share of good winners. Jerry
> is no dummy. It is just that the very nature of
> grass racing makes numbers for individual races
> impossible to quantify.
>
> By the way, not to make this a commercial, but in
> the last 20 years horses both owned and managed by
> me have won virtually every grass race worth
> winning in the United States with the exception of
> the Breeders\' Cup Mile (and we could have possibly
> won it one year when a horse broke down a day
> before the race that had a big shot). We have also
> won some of the biggest international races in the
> world and raced numerous champions. All without
> numbers. That must mean something.


Nobody is questioning your competence Barry. I\'m handicapping the WO Mile now, looking at your Becrux, who won the race last year and figures a shot this year. You know turf racing.

You just need to know that TG and Timeform use very similar methodology when it comes to turf figures. If you spent the least bit of time going over the TG numbers, you would see this.


Good luck with Becrux.

[TGJB]

Barry, Barry, Barry.

I\'ve also won many of the top grass races in this country, INCLUDING the BC Mile, twice, and I\'ve used my data to do it. As you may or may not recall (or in fact may not even know), you were only able to buy Prized because the previous owner backed out of a verbal committment to sell us the horse the day before that maiden race, regardless of the result. I told my client to get it in writing...

Which is not to say you haven\'t done better than most, you have. But as I have demonstrated 76 times to date, you can use Thoro-Graph figures to find and manage stake horses, dirt and grass.

As far as I know you use Ragozin, and you are right that TimeForm makes better figures than that operation, dirt or turf. You have not as far as I know made any serious attempt to see whether our grass numbers hold up. We do them (and dirt figures) entirely differently than Ragozin does, and there is absolutely no comparison. I think you will also find that the European figures we publish are the most accurate available-- IF YOU ACTUALLY DO THE WORK TO FIND OUT.

[Ill-bred]

Those jumping all over Mr. Irwin should realize he is not attacking Thorograph\'s quality. It\'s a question of the nature of turf racing vs. dirt racing, and how turf racing is best understood (and measured).

Can you bet top figure horses or pattern horses on the turf and get a fair number of winners?  Yes

If you were an average turf handicapper before you got into Thorograph, will it move you up? Probably

Are final-time based speed figures, even excellent ones like Thorograph, the best way to judge a turf race? No!

And that\'s not a slam on Thorograph in any way. They make great figs, and their accompanying stats range from useful to groundbreaking.

But if you handicap a turf race using speed figures as your No. 1 measurement, you are going to miss a big part of the picture.

The great thing about Beyer figures is that they are not very good for turf racing, yet they have a strong influence on the wagering.

[stillinger]

Not that it matters, but I wish I had said this. The last line is one of the biggest current edges in No America - I don\'t even know why I would say that in public, old and soft I guess.
skip
Ill-bred Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Those jumping all over Mr. Irwin should realize he
> is not attacking Thorograph\'s quality. It\'s a
> question of the nature of turf racing vs. dirt
> racing, and how turf racing is best understood
> (and measured).
>
> Can you bet top figure horses or pattern horses on
> the turf and get a fair number of winners?  Yes
>
> If you were an average turf handicapper before you
> got into Thorograph, will it move you up?
> Probably
>
> Are final-time based speed figures, even excellent
> ones like Thorograph, the best way to judge a turf
> race? No!
>
> And that\'s not a slam on Thorograph in any way.
> They make great figs, and their accompanying stats
> range from useful to groundbreaking.
>
> But if you handicap a turf race using speed
> figures as your No. 1 measurement, you are going
> to miss a big part of the picture.
>
> The great thing about Beyer figures is that they
> are not very good for turf racing, yet they have a
> strong influence on the wagering.

[Barry Irwin]

Ill-bred and Stillinger are, of course, correct.

The fact that people still rely on Beyer numbers to buy, let alone bet, grass races, is an edge for buyer and player alike.

[stillinger]

EJXD2 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> At the price she was an automatic toss.

I don\'t even agree with this. She was dominant in front, and she finishes and she loves the surface, and she is back in form. It\'s even true that the turf courses in VA and ILL have overlap in terms of type and length in general - Red Giant ran big both places for instance.

Who was supposed to keep up with her early? To beat her, you have to keep her wide, slow up the ground, her be out of condition which would have been hard to argue off her race in VA, and following her career, period. She was best! AND the speed. Like other turfers that ran in front. If you can finish and you start that from in front? Lure, Sabin, even John Henry was best when he ran in front when he was old. regardless the figure, if you get to choose, choose the one that can lead and finish.  

I don\'t think you should BELEIVE in a figure, rather in your ability to use a figure to your advantage. In fact, that\'s probably what the vendor would counsel.
This is not a pace figure. It is not impossible to beat her, you just need some other pace elements than were present last week. If you run it again, maybe the connections of the second speed will figure out an angle to cut into her advantage, and like a man said here, there was a little jam, she got a great break, but she breaks great. This number, good as it is, ain\'t magic, especially on the turf. There is probably a disclaimer to that effect somewhere on site.

Maybe she could draw the rail and have to stand in the gate a long time, and get hot? Those horses didn\'t have much chance, and Jerry\'s comment that she was a dead underlay is sound overall, but you couldn\'t have paid me to bet against her in the win slot. I am very old fashioned. There are easier things to do. The stake tomorrow isn\'t one of them to me.

[fkach]

You hit the nail on the head.