Some Saratoga Observations

[richiebee]

Still:

Handicapped Wednesday\'s card when the form and TGs came available Sunday night.
Looked forward to seeing ETD run and cashing a bet. About to leave the house at
11:30 for the ride to Belmont when the phone rings.

Its my job and they have a big project and could I come in and work for 12
hours. Since the only thing that makes me angrier than passing an opportunity
to get some overtime is thinking of someone else making that money instead of
me,I peel out of my jeans, get corporate and go to work (after stopping of
course at NYC OTB to make a deposit).

So I just got home at 4:30 and cranked up the replay. Durkin says ETD is \"hard
held at the back of the pack\" and they hang up a half mile  fraction of 49 and
this is not where you want a stretch out sprinter to be. I am feeling pretty
good about having decided to go to work about now.

Will have to watch the gallop out on a decent monitor to see if this colt and I
have any future.

POST SCRIPT:  Just looked at the charts... 7 to frickin 5 on this horse?
And Contessa wins the feature with a reformed NYB slow rat carrying penal
weight off of a NYB stake win? Thank god I worked today... it would have been a
long ride home from Belmont. I\'VE HAD IT WITH THIS GAME...until Saturday at
least.

[bellsbendboy]

Anytime a four race sequence returns $3337 for a buck there is some serious volatility, beaten favorites and headscratching winners. Yesterday at Belmont was no different.  Leg one featured a pair of NY maidens that were dropping into claimers for the first time; Mr. Tough Enough ($16.80) and Seeking No More no factor at 19-10.  The former had been out twice and benn blown away as many times, but his last was completely excusable. The gelding recieved first blinkers and drew the one hole at seven panels on a sealed muddy surface.  Never a good thing, being steadied and checked sharply added to the debacle.  Since that race he breezed twice nicely for former longtime NY outrider Barbara who got a determined ride by the upcoming Garcia.  Seeking No More had a lousy work pattern and the fact that his connections did not try a dirt straight maiden raised a flag.  We tried He\'s Tough as well and this one looked malnourished while delaying the start some five minutes and we would not recommend betting this trainer again.

Leg two got us involved in the sequence with all the pre race internet buzz about the Godolphin runner EMIRATES TO DUBAI.  He was up against it from the beginning, drawing poorly with the rail in use but nonetheless was bet down to some 3-2.  The son of Storm Cat passed on a logical spot 8/25 upstate opting instead for this Widener course mile which is much softer than a two turn heat. Always well placed and never far back under GoGo on the three peat, the bin Suroor 4yo saved some ground around the bend but put his head up in the air coming to the pole, indicating possible respiratory issues and just nailed the rank 23-1 pacesetter for fourth money.  Interesting to see how long this one takes to work back.  Our play, Prince Rahy raced well but is a tough ride and Coa did well to get the place money with a solid inside rally.  Singling a horse that is 2 for 20 often leads to torn tickets.  The winner was a hombred from the Clement barn (Operation Red Dawn, $23.40) and was excluded because of a jump in class, only one race in over a year, none since May and a penchant for finishing second with a half dozen runnerups in ten starts.  Leaving Clement off your ticket in a grass race is also a good recipe for torn tickets.

The stake was scratched down to four as everyone was scared off by the resumes of the two favorites.  Neither ran a jump with Tiz Wonderful being vanned off and Ez Warrior finishing last!  Competent cappers know short fields can lead to bizarre finishes and this overnight stake certainly contained chaos.  Contessa is capable of gettig one to jump up in a big way but this one was hard to predict.  Three scratches and three no shows later Stunt Man ($25.20) roars down the lane under big weight winning easily.  Some will say he took advantage of a speed duel but the truth is that the maiden claimer featured faster splits.  A bit embarrassing going three long and omitting the winner but detest adding horses because they might win.

The last leg featured the turf sprint that has become ubiquitous on the NY circuit and a favorite finally came thru.  Sleeping Indian ($5.60) got a perfect trip and won in a quick 1:08 and change to complete the pick four with the payoff similar to the parlay.  Of our other two Cherokee Flare looks a career maiden and Frank\'s Friend was bet way down and showed absolutely nothing for the solid Frankel and underachieving Hennig respectively.  A fun afternoon but going back to the midwest.  BBB

[stillinger]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>> POST SCRIPT:  Just looked at the charts... 7 to
> frickin 5 on this horse?
> And Contessa wins the feature with a reformed NYB
> slow rat carrying penal
> weight off of a NYB stake win? Thank god I worked
> today... it would have been a
> long ride home from Belmont. I\'VE HAD IT WITH THIS
> GAME...until Saturday at
> least.
I would appreciate your reaction when you see the race clearly as to me it was clearly a huge performance upstate, and recently other animals that are off as long as he was hang together, Shakespeare for instance. I think Stem Cell as was televised concerning Greg\'s Gold out here. I am so tempted to call this Grabby Gomez, but I know there\'s a bias under that opinion, similar to the one I have on the plus side for JRV. The ones I have on the \"anticipation\" list always torment me until I can \"File\" them. So, even after watching it twice, I am still among Gomez, Ground, Un-Glue, and that\'s not very comforting.

On the Saturday schedule, I think it\'s ironic that if you would have asked me 30 years ago if I would pass a race day if I didn\'t have to I would have considered the question ludicrous. Now, for the last 20 straight years, with a one year exception when I consulted to my old firm in CHGO, I have been able to \"attend\" albeit long distance, race books, office, but I have had time. Now, it\'s the racing during the week that keeps me away until the week end, in general. This is my response about the 7/5 part of the equation.

Given that price, and the softer ground, I was really serious in thinking after it was all over that Indian Charlie would have been the play of the day if you absolutely had to play one, and that says something about \"weeks\" in racing currently - 8/5 on a horse that never raced on the surface? Lemon Drop Gal - I did get 9/1 with all the same logic, but it was on the week end. If you add that to conditioned claimers at the Spa, etc., I wish I were 100 years old, and had had this time 40 years ago.

The only thing that makes a little sense to me about the feature is that the fall has been in my experience, (after Saratoga), a dangerous time for \"re-starts\", for the ones that need to get anything straightened out. It just seems like lots of them don\'t get it right unless or until it\'s over and they really start over. And on the other hand many short priced horses with nice numbers win, while many regress after the year\'s racing so that what you saw last time, ain\'t what you get. This time between now and the inner is the worst for me, which I think is why I was seeking feed back.
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[stillinger]

bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
Tough Enough ($16.80) had been out twice and benn blown away as many
> times, but his last was completely excusable. The
> gelding recieved first blinkers and drew the one
> hole at seven panels on a sealed muddy surface.
> Never a good thing, being steadied and checked
> sharply added to the debacle.  Since that race he
> breezed twice nicely for former longtime NY
> outrider Barbara who got a determined ride by the
> upcoming Garcia.  
THis was obviously the insight of the day, one I couldn\'t get to.

> The son of Storm Cat passed on a logical spot 8/25
> upstate opting instead for this Widener course
> mile which is much softer than a two turn heat.

This was something I missed, but his head up was obvious to me,
this could be the key as although he carried his head a little
high at the SPA, this time it went up as when they bleed or can\'t
breathe. Noted.

> Always well placed and never far back under GoGo
> on the three peat, the bin Suroor 4yo saved some
> ground around the bend but put his head up in the
> air coming to the pole, indicating possible
> respiratory issues and just nailed the rank 23-1
> pacesetter for fourth money.  Interesting to see
> how long this one takes to work back.  

Our play,
> Prince Rahy raced well but is a tough ride and Coa
> did well to get the place money with a solid
> inside rally.  Singling a horse that is 2 for 20
> often leads to torn tickets.  

This honestly was my impression after you posted, he doesn\'t win,
but when you singled, I certainly am not going to mentiont that.

The winner was a
> hombred from the Clement barn (Operation Red Dawn,
> $23.40) and was excluded because of a jump in
> class, only one race in over a year, none since
> May and a penchant for finishing second with a
> half dozen runnerups in ten starts.  Leaving
> Clement off your ticket in a grass race is also a
> good recipe for torn tickets.

I do think he likes the give, on top of other things.

> The stake was scratched down to four as everyone
> was scared off by the resumes of the two
> favorites.  Neither ran a jump with Tiz Wonderful
> being vanned off and Ez Warrior finishing last!
> Competent cappers know short fields can lead to
> bizarre finishes and this overnight stake
> certainly contained chaos.  Contessa is capable of
> gettig one to jump up in a big way but this one
> was hard to predict.  Three scratches and three no
> shows later Stunt Man ($25.20) roars down the lane
> under big weight winning easily.  Some will say he
> took advantage of a speed duel but the truth is
> that the maiden claimer featured faster splits.  A
> bit embarrassing going three long and omitting the
> winner but detest adding horses because they might
> win.

ACtually, I think it is embarrassing, or at least that\'s how I felt
because Baffert\'s horse is inside and trying to sort out his break,
and Assmussen\'s horse stopped absolutely in KY. The thing I don\'t get
is the 3 6f works. No body is that \"short\" and comes back at 8f. THere
has to be something else, maybe something he gave Any Given Saturday last
year.

> The last leg featured the turf sprint that has
> become ubiquitous on the NY circuit and a favorite
> finally came thru.  Sleeping Indian ($5.60) got a
> perfect trip and won in a quick 1:08 and change to
> complete the pick four with the payoff similar to
> the parlay.  Of our other two Cherokee Flare looks
> a career maiden and Frank\'s Friend was bet way
> down and showed absolutely nothing for the solid
> Frankel and underachieving Hennig respectively.  A
> fun afternoon but going back to the midwest.  BBB

I thank you for this.
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