Sar 8/24 - R9 The Personal Ensign

[Michael D.]

1. Sugar Shake - couple of loose on the lead stakes wins at SA. won\'t be loose on the lead here. high weight. comes in fresh for Frankel though.

2. Unbridled Belle - huge last. the move from Del to NY didn\'t work so well last year. maybe Mr Irwin could shed some light on the disappointing runs last summer.

3. Lila Paige - my pick last at 56-1. ran very well. looking for the same type performance.

4. Teammate - popped a big one in the 10f Alabama here last year off the ugly looking pattern. repeat? will have to really run to wire these.

5. Miss Shop - decent close last. gets pace. fast enough though?

6. Indian Vale - loves the track, going in wrong direction though?


thoughts?

let\'s see what the figures look like.

[Barry Irwin]

Unbridled Belle is the tallest horse in the Pletcher barn, standing more than 17 hands high.

She showed ability last year, but was clumsy and never really put it together.

This year she has trained like a athlete that suddenly got the message. Her works are considerably improved and her last race was so good it was hard to believe she was the same horse.

I am as interested in everybody else in finding out if she is a Delaware freak or can transfer that Del \'Cap form elsewhere.

[Michael D.]

Barry Irwin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Unbridled Belle is the tallest horse in the
> Pletcher barn, standing more than 17 hands high.
>
> She showed ability last year, but was clumsy and
> never really put it together.
>
> This year she has trained like a athlete that
> suddenly got the message. Her works are
> considerably improved and her last race was so
> good it was hard to believe she was the same
> horse.
>
> I am as interested in everybody else in finding
> out if she is a Delaware freak or can transfer
> that Del \'Cap form elsewhere.


Thanks.

Nice horse race. Good luck.

[Michael D.]

Sugar Shake - came in off the freshening last, a good category for Frankel, and couldn't break through. Now stretches in distance and faces other speed. Not for me.

Unbridled Belle - big top last. Three ways of looking at it, 1) she's much better than last year, is a true 10f filly, and should be ready to run big again with the nice timing,  2) she's coming in off a big new top run over the quirky Del surface and is about to bounce to the moon, or 3) something in the middle ...... I think this is a legitimate filly, concerned about the switch from the Del to NY surface though. Tough call, but predicting a run in the '1' range.

Lila Page - small backwards move to the '2' lvl last. Looking for similar, which likely won't be enough for the win.

Teammate - nearly impossible to predict how this miss will run. No excuse last though, and will not get an easy lead. Not for me.

Miss Shop - was a '1.5' type last year. Has failed in 7 chances to break through this year, but 5 of those races were on turf. I liked the 9f Rampart win at GP on very short rest, and the run last while held up for much of the race behind a slow pace wasn't bad. Break through to the '0' lvl today with the good pace up front? That's my call.

Indian Vale - at first glance this is a filly going in the wrong direction who doesn't like 10f. Not so fast (or not so slow I should say). Decent TG fig last with the high weight and 3w/3w trip. Comes in with perfect timing, and returns to a surface she loves. Could be right there at the 1/8th pole battling for the win.


Miss Shop the key at long odds.

.............

Sar 8/23 - The Ballston Spa:

2. Vacare - '4.5' type last year running for Block. Average Lear Fan improves 2 points from three to four, and this is Clement. '3.75' first out this year, and could only match the fig last. Gets a good freshening, and cuts back a bit in distance. Gets a few lbs from MT, and Prado should save every inch of ground. Looking for a 1w/1w run in the '2.5' range, which should put her right there.

Vacare the key at ml of 5-1.

[Lost Cause]

I also love Vacare today but I would back up with Wait a While in my P4 plays.  She has had some tough trips behind slow pacesetters in her last three.  Everything changes if the 9 scratches and the pace slows down again for the Mott crew, so check the scratchboard...

[Wrongly]

The 6 and the 8 scratched.  #2 Vacare and the chalk #3 My Typhoon.  Playing the double with some bombs 2,3,5,6

[Lost Cause]

I think the #1 is going to be tough in the last race but the #4 (1st timer with good breeding for Dickinson), #5 (Exploded last time with lasix added but still has Samyn) and #7 (Might like the shorter distance, make a quick move around the turn and hold on)seem to be logical to upset.

I still think Wait a while should be used along with Vacare in the 8th..

Good luck today everyone...Make that Travers money...

[magicnight]

The Dickinson (#4) scratched.

Also, I may just be trying to make a case to get back the money I lost in the Diana backing Meribel (the last thing I want to do is bring up the dreaded \"P\" word), but with Pomme Fritte winging it, and with the main contenders wanting to be on or near the pace, even at 1 & 1/16, this may set up for the #1 with the rail and JV.

[Lost Cause]

The scratch in the 9th makes my life easier...I didn\'t like him anyway, works were slow but because it was a well bred Dickinson firster you had to throw him in..

Meribel\'s last race was intriguing..But I don\'t think she is at the same level with these Grade 1 horses  going this short..she\'ll probably close too late again...
The 9 will provide the speed (She\'s in foal by the way, guess they are trying to get a graded stakes placing out of her before she goes to the breeding shed, don\'t see that happening here) along with Pommes frites..
My Typhoon stalking in third with Vacare and Wait a While behind her, I think the three of these will move together around the turn and from there I think my Typhoon with the extra weight and having to do a little more than her last two races will tire a little leaving Vacare and Wait a While to fight it out..
...Upset possibility...
If Pommes Frites takes back and they slow down the pace up front she could run huge off the 60 day layoff with the addition of Cornelio..She is no slouch if the pace is slow enough..

[fkach]

Sugar Shake, Teammate and Indian Vale are all good, but they don\'t inspire a lot of confidence going 10F when \"at a minimum\" they should keep each other honest on the front. It could easily get tougher than that at some point.

Neither Lila Paige or Miss Shop looks like a legitimate Grade 1 horse even if they have some ability.

That leaves Unbridled Belle as the only clear 10F horse that belongs in a Grade 1 race. But do you really want her as a solid favorite when most of her good races have come over the Delaware strip and her last was so much better than her form last year.

IMO, this is the kind of race you either pass or pray falls apart so badly that your flawed horse wins. I\'ll probably pass unless Unbridled Belle stays in the 2-1 range. But even then I won\'t let many moths out.

[fkach]

Just to give you guys some idea of the opportunities on Exchanges:

Miss Shop was available in decent sized quantities at $12.80 if you wanted it. (I didn\'t take it)

You could get 7-1 on Sugar Shake if you wanted it.

Unbridled Belle\'s odds were actually slightly lower at the Exchange than at the track last I looked.

However, you could book bets on Indian Vale giving just 2.2-1 without having any other opinion on the race.  

What\'s wrong with that if you think she\'s vulnerable at 10F, outside, likely to lose ground, and may be used early?

[Michael D.]

fkach Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> IMO, this is the kind of race you either pass or
> pray falls apart so badly that your flawed horse
> wins. I\'ll probably pass unless Unbridled Belle
> stays in the 2-1 range. But even then I won\'t let
> many moths out.

you don\'t pray that it falls apart, you handicap that it does. the probability of it happening here was high, and that left Miss Shop as the solid key.

good thing they didn\'t interview Jerkens before the race. he said after that he NEVER though Miss Shop would get the distance.

[fkach]

LOL. Very nice selection.  

I wasn\'t convinced enough that Unbridled Belle wouldn\'t run her race to take a positive stand against her with Miss Shop. But I did take a stand \"against\" Indian Vale. ;-)

[Michael D.]

one thing to add ....

Jerry made Miss Shop\'s last faster than most. he had the track the race before Lawyer Ron\'s win slower than the Whitney surface, a view I shared.