Numbers-Figures-Horse's ratings

streetbull · May 17, 2007, 05:47:12 PM

Jimbo wrote\"

Second question, would it matter to you how the horse\'s figure was run? (in other words is a \"2\" a \"2\" no matter what, as far as coming back on short rest). Would a \"2\" running on the pace, in a heated battle for 1 1/4 be tougher to come back from in 2 weeks than a \"2\" achieved by dropping back to last and then coming very wide around the far turn, losing ground? I know that from a quality perspective, a 2 is a 2 is 2..... But from a \"coming back on short rest\", would you rather be coming back off an effort where your horse ran hard the whole way, or just ran hard for the last 3/8 of a mile. \"

I am aware that Jimbo is awaiting Jerry\'s reply to his questions but I thought that I would throw some twigs and wood to the subject at hand...

First off...I want to go on record that I am a big fan of the Sartin Methodology but their membership is currently closed for new members; but I am a bigger fan of all aspects of handicapping... This has been one of my lifetime hobbies.. Therefore, I always stride forward with an open mind.

I have some perspectives on form cycle patterns which I learned from Thorograph which I had purchased some years back... and I had the opportunities to learn about numbers-figures from many sources...Bob Selvin and Jeff Siegel\'s Handicapper\'s Report, the Racing Digest, and from a good fried who made his own numbers but this friend went on to a bigger passion in his life--stocktrading and left the game....

From my past associations and from my humbling education, I have learned that if two horse earned the same numbers (final times-wise) the horse on the lead for most of the race expended more \"energy\" versus the horse who only ran the last part of the race coming from far back...

In the rematch...Jim Bradshaw summed it up best by saying that he will always take the horse who was closer to the pace if the same two horses were to race each other in a rematch.
\"Lil E. Tee won the Derby but Bradshaw would go with Pine Bluff in the next race\"...There are no general conclusion being implied here since the evaluation of a race depends on the \"matchup\" at hand which is most important.

Another example would be Silver Charm\'s Santa Anita Derby Race...Silver Charm dueled with Lukas\'s Sharp Cat through some wicked early pace fractions( something like 45 and change and then 109 and change for the early fractions). Silver Charm lost to Free House in the Santa Anita Derby but Silver Charm would go on to win the Kentucky Derby beating Team Valor\'s Captain Bodgit who had one of the top two sustain lines going into the Derby along with Silver Charm.

For many years, some of the Derbies were won by one run deep closers like Gato del Sol, Strike the Gold and Monarchos. Some of these one run deep closers were lucky to win another race in their lifetime... In their respective races in the Derbies, the stars were aligned in harmony as some very fast early fractions were carved out leading to a meltdown of the early pace horses....

Each methodology has its own benefits and place...the key awaits those that can put it together on a consistent basis where the only factor that counts is one\'s ROI at the end of one\'s persuit in handicapping...

MO · May 17, 2007, 06:51:09 PM

Yeah, especially Strike The Gold whom I took great pleasure beating on a regular basis after the Derby. He was a phony, make no mistake about it.

Sandreadis · May 17, 2007, 07:33:01 PM

PHONY? That\'s a little harsh. 3.5 million lifetime. Winner of the Blue Grass,Derby and beaten a fast closing head by Hansel in the Belmont.
He did run 13 times as a 4 year old which may have contributed to his less than stellar 4YO campaign but I can note wins over Fly So Free,Pleasant Tap,Twighlight Agenda and Sultry Song as a 4YO.
Sorry, I gotta stick up for one of boys.

MO · May 17, 2007, 08:50:46 PM

Nah, not really. He did not get the best figure in the Derby. He lost Preakness and Belmont to the better horse (whom I picked to win the triple crown - much to the laughter of Dr. Ted Hill). It\'s OK Doc. I forgive you.

streetbull · May 17, 2007, 10:34:25 PM

Sandreadis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> PHONY? That\'s a little harsh. 3.5 million
> lifetime. Winner of the Blue Grass,Derby and
> beaten a fast closing head by Hansel in the
> Belmont.
> He did run 13 times as a 4 year old which may have
> contributed to his less than stellar 4YO campaign
> but I can note wins over Fly So Free,Pleasant
> Tap,Twighlight Agenda and Sultry Song as a 4YO.
> Sorry, I gotta stick up for one of boys.

/Sandreadis...

I used Strike the Gold only as an example to compare running styles.... If you are Zito or if you are one of the owners ...Then I salute your Derby win in 1991.....

Since we are focused on Strike the Gold...This was the horse that pretty much blew up the whole Dosage System.. They had to reclassified some sires to fit Strike the Gold into the system....

From Strike the Gold\'s Blue Grass running line, this horse had the top sustained energy from that year... Hansel\' record Jim Beam stakes win was the other top sustained line from that year. Hansel ran the 1 1/8 in a time of 1:46 and change.....

In hindsight( which is always 20-20), analysing Hansel running lines, the Jim Beam race was the highest energy rating race for the prep races leading up to the 1991 Derby.. This race made Hansel the standout choice, hands down.... But from a form cycle analysis....Hansel had the classic pattern of

Big race!!! ( O ) Jim Beam
Subpar race (2) 1 1/16 race
Bounce!!!!! XXXXXXXX ( Bounce in the Derby )
Bounce back ( 0 ) Preakness Win

I have always used Hansel for this pattern......and when analysing the matchup or the energy rating of horses...9 times out of 10...I will always go with Hansel.....race after race....

Best Wishes.....

MO · May 17, 2007, 10:36:13 PM

streetbull Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Sandreadis Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > PHONY? That\'s a little harsh. 3.5 million
> > lifetime. Winner of the Blue Grass,Derby and
> > beaten a fast closing head by Hansel in the
> > Belmont.
> > He did run 13 times as a 4 year old which may
> have
> > contributed to his less than stellar 4YO
> campaign
> > but I can note wins over Fly So Free,Pleasant
> > Tap,Twighlight Agenda and Sultry Song as a 4YO.
>
> > Sorry, I gotta stick up for one of boys.
>
> /Sandreadis...
>
> I used Strike the Gold only as an example to
> compare running styles.... If you are Zito or if
> you are one of the owners ...Then I salute your
> Derby win in 1991.....
>
> Since we are focused on Strike the Gold...This was
> the horse that pretty much blew up the whole
> Dosage System.. They had to reclassified some
> sires to fit Strike the Gold into the system....
>
> From Strike the Gold\'s Blue Grass running line,
> this horse had the top sustained energy from that
> year... Hansel\' record Jim Beam stakes win was
> the other top sustained line from that year.
> Hansel ran the 1 1/8 in a time of 1:46 and
> change.....
>
> In hindsight( which is always 20-20), analysing
> Hansel running lines, the Jim Beam race was the
> highest energy rating race for the prep races
> leading up to the 1991 Derby.. This race made
> Hansel the standout choice, hands down.... But
> from a form cycle analysis....Hansel had the
> classic pattern of
>
> Big race!!! ( O ) Jim
> Beam
> Subpar race (2) 1
> 1/16 race
> Bounce!!!!! XXXXXXXX (
> Bounce in the Derby )
> Bounce back ( 0 )
> Preakness Win
>
> I have always used Hansel for this
> pattern......and when analysing the matchup or the
> energy rating of horses...9 times out of 10...I
> will always go with Hansel.....race after
> race....
>
> Best Wishes.....

Thanks for a great post! Good luck!

fkach · May 18, 2007, 06:02:32 AM

I couldn\'t agree with you any more. In fact, I\'ve been saying the same thing in posts on other subjects.

All my research indicates that even an average pace for the class is a bit demanding on the front runners. By that I mean, if a front runner and closer earn the same exact figure in the typical race, the front runner almost always has run the better race because he used more energy early. If the pace was fast, it\'s a certainty. You don\'t always get to see that in the rematch because the FR will face an average pace next time too. However, you can see this kind of thing played out when front runners occasionally get loose in moderately slow paces. They run more tops than you would expect randomly.

There is no doubt in my mind that Hard Spun is either closer in ability to SS than it looks or better than him off their respective Derby performances.

However, as we all know, handicapping is not limited to measuring past performances. One or both horses may not duplicate their recent race and for all we know the Preakness pace will be more testing on HS than the Derby pace.

Regardless, for those worried about bouncing, IMO Hard Spun ran a huge Derby.

Sandreadis · May 18, 2007, 06:31:16 AM

Mo,
The TG archives for the Belmont go back to 92 so I\'m not positive but STG had to run a better figure than Hansel. He broke from post 11 and had to be 7-8 wide in the far turn. You say he didn\'t have the best fig in the Derby and that he lost to a better horse in the Belmont, you can\'t have it both ways.STG had better figures than Hansel in 2 of the 3 TC races.

I was at TP for Hansel\'s Beam win. The track was scraped to next to nothing.Track record(s) were SMASHED. They never ran close to that fast before or after that day. It\'s no wonder Hansel ran so poor in the Derby, he had to be sore from that track.

Hansel was a great horse as was STG.

MO · May 18, 2007, 07:56:16 AM

Sandreadis,

I was referring to Best Pal in the Derby. I think he had the best figure. Hansel was 7th if memory serves. Good point about Hansel being sore after Turfway race.

I recall standing next to Dr. Hill watching Hansel gallop out after (I think) the Belmont. I mentioned that Hansel seemed to be favoring his right front. Doc quipped \"you don\'t bet these things do you?\" Well, if memory serves, Hansel broke down in the Travers. That was 1991. I think Corporate Report won the Travers, trained by Lukas.

MO · May 18, 2007, 08:10:06 AM

Sandreadis,

I was able to look at the replay of 1991 Derby and I was incorrect about Best Pal.

Best Pal actually saved more ground than STG. So STG surely got the better figue.

alm · May 18, 2007, 08:26:18 AM

These are terrific posts. Thanks to all.

While I have great respect for the type of analysis Thorograph figures allow, I think Jerry Brown would agree that both the figures and the analysis they encourage is subjective to some extent. In relation to this past Derby, I believe I saw something of greater importance than the figures...and I admit in advance this is completely a subjective observation.

I\'ve been a breeder-owner for over 20 years and watching horse races for nearly 50. Regardless of the open path Street Sense had, his move past horses in the backstretch was relentless, but more important it was easy...one of the best middle moves I\'ve seen...comparable to some of Secretariat\'s.

The fact this happened in the backstretch is important to my way of thinking. Serious contenders and their jockeys begin their drive moving towards the final turn and are accelerating to the best of their abilities at this point in the race. SS passed them so quickly that I, subjectively speaking, conclude he is a very special animal. A lot better than the others. Also, he was running for fun in the stretch...they didn\'t squeeze the lemon...didn\'t have to.

My guess is you will not see them take him back in the Preakness, rather I expect him to stalk the pace because his connections know that Hard Spun will not be gunning from the outset (because Lucas has FFC in there to do that) and will, therefore be more dangerous at the finish. Nafzger won\'t want HS streaking off to an insurmountable lead once Lucas\' horse folds.

If I\'m right about SS, he will win this race, but not until deep stretch and he will spend more time in a parked out position.

The only question in my mind about the Preakness is about the drug testing setup at Pimlico. Is it as tough as the setup they had at Churchill? If not, you can expect to see Curlin run bigger and perhaps TP\'s entries too.

Uncle Buck · May 18, 2007, 02:24:30 PM

Great post Alm. One of the best I\'ve read on here:-)