Contrarian View of Hard Spun

[albany]

Prior to the Derby, the consensus was that Hard Spun\'s 57 3/5 work was too fast and that he left his race on the training track. I rejected this view in the belief that good horses work fast and that the consensus would inflate Hard Spun\'s odds. This resulted in a rather successful dip into the exacta pool.

For the Preakness, the consensus view is that Hard Spun\'s pre-Derby work was, in light of the Derby finish, not too fast at all. Ever the contrarian, I am now of the mind to accept the pre-Derby consensus that the work was indeed too ambitious. If one accepts this position, how impressive was Hard Spun\'s effort and how much of a monster could he be?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Albany, nice post. Your theme is that maybe Hard Spun had more to give but for the work.

My belief is that he ran well enough to win and the same or a similar effort may be enough in  the Preakness unless the red sea rail parts for Street Sense again. I also like his breeding to go on a bit more.

CtC

albany Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Prior to the Derby, the consensus was that Hard
> Spun\'s 57 3/5 work was too fast and that he left
> his race on the training track. I rejected this
> view in the belief that good horses work fast and
> that the consensus would inflate Hard Spun\'s odds.
> This resulted in a rather successful dip into the
> exacta pool.
>
> For the Preakness, the consensus view is that Hard
> Spun\'s pre-Derby work was, in light of the Derby
> finish, not too fast at all. Ever the contrarian,
> I am now of the mind to accept the pre-Derby
> consensus that the work was indeed too ambitious.
> If one accepts this position, how impressive was
> Hard Spun\'s effort and how much of a monster could
> he be?

[fkach]

I think the work was both too fast too early for a 10F prep and a signal that he was ready to run a giant race. I believe he did run a huge race, but he ran too fast early. That was not a soft first 4F for a 10F race run in that final time on that track.

[miff]

HS\'s last 6f in app 1.15.84 was truly monsterous.Watch out Big Red.


Mike

[albany]

Miff:

First Rule of Racing: You go out fast, you come back slow.
Second Rule of Racing: You go out slow, you come back fast.
Third Rule of Racing: Don\'t reference Secretariat unless he\'s in the field.

Hard Spun is capable of wiring the Preakness because of his high cruising speed. On the other hand, he is able to rate kindly should someone be intent on the lead. If they choose a post outside of the other speed, you can count on him to stalk.

As to Secretariat, I was at Saratoga the only time he was not a favorite. In those days, they saddled under the trees. The chalk in the race was Linda\'s Chief who was owned by Neil Hellman, a local horseman who attracted more than his share of betting action. There was a large crowd around Linda\'s Chief\'s tree and only a few people around the tree about which Secretariat circled as he awaited being saddled. He had a bit of yellow powder on the left side of his neck to treat, I suspect, a slight skin rash. Otherwise, he looked like a walking statue. A patron standing near me noted the powder and remarked that \"there is something wrong with that horse. ... he\'s a throwout.\"  I bring up this story not suggest that Hard Spun is close to being Secretariat, but rather to note that some people may discount a horse for something inconsequential (yellow powder or a slow closing fraction following a hot early pace which set up a deep closer\'s perfect trip victory) and neglect to notice the obvious quality of a unbelievably talented horse.

P.S. Secretariat will not be competing in Maryland.

[miff]

Albany,

Not even close. Never annoint a possible monster off of little accomplisments and a rather common derby performance.HS did not run that fast early to justify his pedestrian last 6f, gutty performance, but common from my perspective compared to legit \"monsters\"(your word)

Mike

[Silver Charm]

Someone please try and venture a guess on what Street Sense ran the eighth of a mile from the Qtr Pole to the Eighth Pole.

He was 3 and 1/2 down at the Qtr and 1 Up at the eighth.

Pino turned for home on Hard Spun with some horse under him and was SWALLOWED.