The case for Nobiz

[toppled]

I think Nobiz Like Showbiz is going to run huge tommorrow.  While some of you would look at his pattern & immediately dismiss him as \"no progress\" I believe there are very mitigating circumstances.
1) We\'ve seen his pattern as 2 3 race progressions-we do not have a 4th race within the cycle.  I believe he\'s in for an explosion because in each third there\'s reason to believe he hasn\'t reached his bottom.  Take the Remsen, he runs back to his debut #.  Both #s were the result of runnaway victories where he was untested through the stretch.  Could he have run a faster number if a Street Sense had made a move to his outside?  I believe he could have.  
Now lets go to another winning effort, the Wood Memorial.  A lot of stuff happens here beside another pair up.  His jockey keeps him on the inside where he practically pins him there so horses can come up along his outside.  This is something I believe is a great educational tool to get him ready for close quarters, whether that was CV\'s intent or not.  So, because he stays on the rail, his # suffers.  But, he does everything needed in that race. When AGS comes up on his outside, he shifs into another gear & pulls away.  The beauty of this is that after he has the race won, Sightseeing shortens the gap, so the casual DRF reader (read as amateur Derby fan, not us) doesn\'t notice the ease of his win, it looks like he maintained a 1/2 length lead through the stretch, when in fact he drew away when asked & was under cruise control when Sightseeing came along.  Now that ease doesn\'t get reflected in the sheet # or the Beyer.   So now Beyer, hoisted on his own petard, can\'t touch him because he didn\'t get a 100+ Beyer.  
2) Why does anyone believe that Barclay Tagg, a Derby winning trainer, would have a horse who from day 1 was being pointed to this race, cranked up to run a maximum effort 1 race before the Derby.  The figure is his minimum, not his maximum.  You\'ll see his maximum in Kentucky in May, not in April at Aqueduct.  Tagg has this horse trained to the second for this race. If he had moved to a zero, tons of people would be saying,reasonable progress from his other numbers-next will be a pair or new top with 4 weeks rest.    
3) If tested a I believe a -1 is well within his range.  In the juvenile, Street Sense moved 7 points from a top pairup that didn\'t come close to Nobiz\'s baseline #s.  He\'s gotten worse every race to the point that one quarter more point & he\'s at Nobiz\'s under cruising speed #, yet he\'s the darling of many speed figure players because of his -2-a number I don\'t believe he\'ll ever run back to.
We all have different opinions of this race.  This is mine.  If I\'m wrong, I\'ll eat the crow.  If I\'m right, OTB is going to be depositing the proceeds of the Oaks-Derby double into my account & I will be very happy.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m getting magnificent vibes from Barclay Tagg. He is radiating confidence.

That said, I did not like Nobiz\'s Wood. Nobiz lept to the front and had to be throttled by the jockey to be backed even marginally off the pace. He was running with the rogues badge (blinkers) for the first time and had cotton stuffed in his ears. There was talk on this board that he fought off multiple challenges and then held a closer safe by surging. Nonsense, Nobiz was the pace horse and forced himself into the fray of front runners and came out the last man standing. The place horse was getting to him and the closing fraction was evidence of some fatigue. The final time was not comparable to Grade III olders a couple races later. The track was live, not like Bellamy Roads Wood Day, but lively for sure.

Funny Cide had more fire than this horse, but he was more professional too. I\'m afraid of Tagg, but I don\'t like what I can discern. When this horse got beat by Scat Daddy you had to know he was not as good as they had hoped.

toppled Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think Nobiz Like Showbiz is going to run huge
> tommorrow.  While some of you would look at his
> pattern & immediately dismiss him as \"no progress\"
> I believe there are very mitigating circumstances.
>
> 1) We\'ve seen his pattern as 2 3 race
> progressions-we do not have a 4th race within the
> cycle.  I believe he\'s in for an explosion because
> in each third there\'s reason to believe he hasn\'t
> reached his bottom.  Take the Remsen, he runs back
> to his debut #.  Both #s were the result of
> runnaway victories where he was untested through
> the stretch.  Could he have run a faster number if
> a Street Sense had made a move to his outside?  I
> believe he could have.  
> Now lets go to another winning effort, the Wood
> Memorial.  A lot of stuff happens here beside
> another pair up.  His jockey keeps him on the
> inside where he practically pins him there so
> horses can come up along his outside.  This is
> something I believe is a great educational tool to
> get him ready for close quarters, whether that was
> CV\'s intent or not.  So, because he stays on the
> rail, his # suffers.  But, he does everything
> needed in that race. When AGS comes up on his
> outside, he shifs into another gear & pulls away.
> The beauty of this is that after he has the race
> won, Sightseeing shortens the gap, so the casual
> DRF reader (read as amateur Derby fan, not us)
> doesn\'t notice the ease of his win, it looks like
> he maintained a 1/2 length lead through the
> stretch, when in fact he drew away when asked &
> was under cruise control when Sightseeing came
> along.  Now that ease doesn\'t get reflected in the
> sheet # or the Beyer.   So now Beyer, hoisted on
> his own petard, can\'t touch him because he didn\'t
> get a 100+ Beyer.  
> 2) Why does anyone believe that Barclay Tagg, a
> Derby winning trainer, would have a horse who from
> day 1 was being pointed to this race, cranked up
> to run a maximum effort 1 race before the Derby.
> The figure is his minimum, not his maximum.
> You\'ll see his maximum in Kentucky in May, not in
> April at Aqueduct.  Tagg has this horse trained to
> the second for this race. If he had moved to a
> zero, tons of people would be saying,reasonable
> progress from his other numbers-next will be a
> pair or new top with 4 weeks rest.    
> 3) If tested a I believe a -1 is well within his
> range.  In the juvenile, Street Sense moved 7
> points from a top pairup that didn\'t come close to
> Nobiz\'s baseline #s.  He\'s gotten worse every race
> to the point that one quarter more point & he\'s at
> Nobiz\'s under cruising speed #, yet he\'s the
> darling of many speed figure players because of
> his -2-a number I don\'t believe he\'ll ever run
> back to.
> We all have different opinions of this race.  This
> is mine.  If I\'m wrong, I\'ll eat the crow.  If I\'m
> right, OTB is going to be depositing the proceeds
> of the Oaks-Derby double into my account & I will
> be very happy.

[flushedstraight]

If my owner turned down 17 million from Sheik Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai, after a @#$%ing maiden win, I\'d radiate confidence even if my horse looked like Zippy Chippy.

[shanahan]

I like Nobiz - and Scat Daddy.  I don\'t believe CQ gets the last furlong, and I believe Curlin bounces - even if he doesn\'t, to take him as a fav without ever running in a full field is a bit much to ask.  My play as of 8 AM:

scat daddy & nobiz on top/2,7,8,10,12,14,16,17,18,20/3 = $18, & the simple reverse of the 3 into the middle for a total of $36 for 2 tri tix.  

Every way imaginable I figure this race, Zanjero is in the top 3 (not news to those with the seminar) and at those odds, well...I\'ve dropped more than this on smaller pools.  

Enjoy everyone, best of luck to all!

[Dana666]

If you\'re right, and I beliedve you are, you and me both will need armed guards as we depart the track tonight!

[Dana666]

This horse is way better than funny cide, they\'re not even in the same league, like AAA ball vs. the major\'s.

[miff]

Don\'t understand what better means in horseracing, I only know that No Biz has yet to run as fast as FC or several others in here.


Mike

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

You have to count the W\'s and L\'s sometimes. Funny Cide won a Derby and Preakness and finished right there in the Wood with a horse they were annoiting as the Triple Crown Winner. It turned out the annoited one wasn\'t even as good as the stables second stringer Peace Rules. That one was a better horse upon all manner of measurement.

Tagg has fallen in love with Nobiz and he is a gorgeous horse. But he\'s also green enough Tagg had to resort to blinkers and cotton last and he almost greened himself out of winning a race. If Nobiz is the real McCoy, Scat Daddy is right there with him. I do not believe that to be the case, but we\'ll see soon enough.

If Nobiz is derby winner caliber than Shug has mismanaged himself again and should no longer be the Phipps Stable trainer. They need to give all their horses to Pletcher.

I dont think Shug is off cue. I think Nobiz is vastly overrated. We will find out soon enough.

CtC

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This horse is way better than funny cide, they\'re
> not even in the same league, like AAA ball vs. the
> major\'s.

[jbelfior]

He picked the wrong day to run the worst race of his life. Not sure this colt wants to be fought with early on.


Good Luck,
joe B.