Street Sense & Picks

[Caradoc]

I\'m a little surprised by the seminar\'s analysis of Street Sense in light of his pattern.  From memory and a look into the archives, I\'ve only identified two other horses that went negative as 2yos, and the subsequent history of those horses does not bode well for Street Sense.  The first was Read the Footnotes, who ran a negative number as a 2yo and later competed in the 2004 Derby.  After pairing his negative number early in his 3yo campaign, he bounced badly and then repeated the bounce in the Derby.  He didn\'t race again.  The second is Stevie Wonderboy, who ran a negative number in the fall of 2005.  He ran once or twice after that, and hasn\'t been heard from since.  On the basis of their histories, as well as the study done last year on 3yo\'s that run negative numbers, my working theory is that there are adverse long-term consequences of running such a huge number in the absolute sas a 2yo.  

There are other reasons to take a stand against Street Sense in light of his pattern.  Street Sense had leveled off at the 5-6 level prior to his huge effort, and the magnitude of the rapid development (over seven points) could alone set him back for awhile.  We have evidence from his form this year that his Breeders Cup effort has actually had negative impact.  Unlike Read the Footnotes, Street Sense has not yet been able to pair his huge effort.  His form this year represents an off race, and then an X.  Any other horse coming into this race with that line would be highly disfavored.  If he wins, congatulations to all of you who like him and cash, but you will not do so because his pattern is healthy.

Curlin may be a bounce candidate but I don\'t see why he can\'t run another big effort, particularly with speed and an iside draw.  Some of the Pletcher horses have to be in this, as does Hard Spun, so I\'m looking at an exotics box of Curlin, Scat Daddy, Cowtown Cat, Any Given Saturday, Circular Quay and Hard Spun.

Good luck to all.