TG's Comment on the Derby

[Uncle Buck]

MO...It\'s obvious you and I are on SS and won\'t budge. I\'ve got an envelope full of Ben Franklin\'s I\'ve been saving sitting in my credenza with his name on it and will NOT waiver on my top choice unless he gets terrible workout reports or looks seriously washy in the post parade. In that case I would have to rethink the race. Nafzger has won a Derby. Pletcher, Jones, O\'Neil and Asmussen HAVE NOT. Street Sense pummeled this group once already. Others HAVE NOT. AGS ran wider than SS in Tampa but SS was coming off a four month layoff and STILL BEAT AGS. Case CLOSED! SS is the best horse and on Beyers, TG #\'s and BRIS figures is fastest. Borel is a damn good jock and Churchill Downs is his home track. He will work out a trip.

I do not care what his odds are. I will still bet him at 5-2 or 3-1. If I lose I lose. We all, (no matter what some say) lose more than we win in this or any form of gambling.

What I have learned in betting 20 or so Derbies is once I zero in on a horse (and in this case - he just so happens to be the fastest horse), I plan everything around that one. Oaks/Derby double - wheeled pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s, and I bet the horse across the board as the place and show payouts are always respectable in the Derby. If I get to worried and look too long I can make a case for every rat in the race and with all the exotics available I go NUTS!

I would be willing to bet that the owners of TG will advise a play against SS. I can already hear the word \"Underlay.\" And that\'s fine...

But I don\'t bet odds most times. I bet horseflesh. Sometimes I win, sometimes a lot, but 70% of the times I lose...

I\'m hoping this year is a repeat of the 2001 Derby, when Monarchos bought me a new patio set, living room furniture, a moster TV, a Rolex watch and some other things I needed!

Good luck. We WILL prevail!

[marcus]

of the fast fillies in the oaks imo - rags to riches probably has the best shot to run a number . i like outsiders her majesty , and panty raid a little but she could be a lousy price - so i might toss her  . 2nd leg horses incl - SS ,SD  and although a little slow going in - RFD & LQDTY  . maybe worth a dollar 2x4 ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Close win against AGS and a loss to Dominican. If SS isn\'t 5-1 in this race with a 20 horse field I\'ll be stunned.

Curlin will be favored. Circular Quay, Scat Daddy and AGS will take money. Probably in that order.



Uncle Buck Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> MO...It\'s obvious you and I are on SS and won\'t
> budge. I\'ve got an envelope full of Ben Franklin\'s
> I\'ve been saving sitting in my credenza with his
> name on it and will NOT waiver on my top choice
> unless he gets terrible workout reports or looks
> seriously washy in the post parade. In that case I
> would have to rethink the race.
>
> I do not care what his odds are. I will still bet
> him at 5-2 or 3-1. If I lose I lose. We all, (no
> matter what some say) lose more than we win in
> this or any form of gambling.
>
> What I have learned in betting 20 or so Derbies is
> once I zero in on a horse (and in this case - he
> just so happens to be the fastest horse), I plan
> everything around that one. Oaks/Derby double -
> wheeled pick 3\'s and pick 4\'s, and I bet the horse
> across the board as the place and show payouts are
> always respectable in the Derby. If I get to
> worried and look too long I can make a case for
> every rat in the race and with all the exotics
> available I go NUTS!
>
> I would be willing to bet that the owners of TG
> will advise a play against SS. I can already hear
> the word \"Underlay.\" And that\'s fine...
>
> But I don\'t bet odds most times. I bet horseflesh.
> Sometimes I win, sometimes a lot, but 70% of the
> times I lose...
>
> I\'m hoping this year is a repeat of the 2001
> Derby, when Monarchos bought me a new patio set,
> living room furniture, a moster TV, a Rolex watch
> and some other things I needed!
>
> Good luck. We WILL prevail!

[miff]

Buck,

Do not fret, you will get more than 5-2 on SS for all those Franklin\'s.Whats a moster TV?

Mike

[MO]

Oaks looks like good betting race underneath Rags to Riches. I like Mystical Plan and High Heels. Got to wonder what happened to Appealing Zophie last time out.....

[Uncle Buck]

Typo Miff:-) It was supposed to say \"Monster\" TV - as in Sony Wega...I highly recommend one!

[spa]

Buck, I prefer another Dali...............

[NoCarolinaTony]

Hey I got 6-1 and Breakage....on Barbaro. SNS was the favorite at 7-2 or 9-2.

NCT

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Not bad, but you were betting the favorite until the gates popped. Sweetnorthernsaint went off at about 5.5 to 1.

In the next race Sweetnorthernsaint was about 8.5 to 1, Bernardini about 13-1 and Hemingways Key about 30-1. The favorite of course had an eight week layoff between his two Florida races and a five week layoff before the Kentucky Derby. He had to come back in two weeks after running hard in Kentucky and the rest is history. There are those that believe the trainers should dictate the spacing of the Triple Crown events. If Trainers are allowed to do so the Triple Crown will never have firm dates. The Triple Crown races will alter upon the whims of the Trainers and those that call themselves Trainers. The day may come when the Derby will be run in May, The Preakness in June and the Belmont on Travers Day. A Championship season will involve four races on Poly Turf. Still, for some horses 8 weeks won\'t be enough rest and the type of horse needing that much time off will continue to come unglued.
 
I don\'t think so. Better for the brittle to break down. Darwin\'s Theory of Evolution. That is of course, unless you can keep your attention span upon a Triple Crown that lasts longer than the baseball season in a campaign of four starts.

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey I got 6-1 and Breakage....on Barbaro. SNS was
> the favorite at 7-2 or 9-2.
>
> NCT

[MO]

Yep. Barbaro went off at 6.10 and SNS was post time fav at 5.50.

[richiebee]

CtC:

I enjoy your take on the future of the Triple Crown. Here\'s mine:

Almost inevitable that Churchill will drink the Poly Kool Aid and by 2010 we
will have our first Poly Ky Derby.

If Magna/Stronach is still involved in Racing, Frankstro will (kind of as
retribution against Maryland politicians who have been rather unkind to him)
take the Preakness away from Pimlico and run it at another Magna facility ie
Santa Anita or Gulfstream or maybe even Remington or Lone Star. Maybe he will
run the Preakness at a different venue each year, kind of like a floating crap
game.

The powers that be in NY, after years of Belmonts with small fields and a
diminishing live gate on Belmont Day, will decide to run the race at 1-1/2 miles
on the turf.

[elkurzhal]

Pimlico and Frank go broke...  Arlington moves the American Derby back to the main track and the new TC is born.

Ky Derby 10f on dirt 1st Saturday in May
Belmont 12f on dirt 5 weeks later
American Derby 9.5f on poly 6 weeks later

Then you\'ve got 5 weeks to the Travers to make it a grand slam.

[BitPlayer]

I\'m intrigued by Nobiz, but Jimbo66\'s comment about not taking single-digit odds on a horse needing to improve 2 points to compete for the win struck a chord, so I thought I\'d go to the TG Derby archives to seem how unlikely a 2-point improvement is.  I found only 8 in a sample of 169 horses.  They were (largest improvement first):

Barbaro
Giacomo
Proud Citizen
Victory Gallop
Silver Charm
China Visit (only one prior fig, earned at Nad Al Sheba)
Aptitude
Closing Argument

In my nonsystematic search for common threads, I found the following:
All (except for China Visit) either ran a new top or paired an old one in their last Derby prep.
All had three or fewer races at 3 going into the Derby.
All (except Aptitude, for whom path info was not provided) ran in the 3 path or wider on both turns in the Derby.

I was also curious about horses (like Street Sense) who established their pre-Derby tops at age 2.  I found only the following four:
Outtta Here ran a 2.75 at 2, ran an 8.25 at Nad Al Sheba in his only pre-Derby start at 3, and ran a 3.25 in the Derby.
Master David ran a 2 as a 2yo, did no better than a 4 prior to the Derby as a 3yo, and ran a 6.5 in the Derby.
Captain Steve ran a 3.75 as a 2yo, did no better than a 5.25 prior to the Derby as a 3yo, and ran an 8 in the Derby.
Nationalore ran an 8 as a 2yo, did no better than a 9 prior to the Derby as a 3yo, and ran a 13.75 in the Derby.

[davidrex]

Bit Player,

Very nice chunk of info.In past I would start to steam when stuff like this surfaced.In poker this is called a \"tell\".
Now these guys know what we know,but when it comes to betting they will be compelled to abandon your history lesson.
Not me...thanx for putting me back on track...you get a chapter in my book named after you.