BEYER NUMBERS FOR SATURDAY

[high roller]

93 for Blue Grass and 103 for Ark Derby.

[Silver Charm]

93 for the Blue Grass.

Looks like he nailed it. Slow horses run slow figures.

[Flighted Iron]

Silver,
 
  I am not sure I understand what you mean by \"slow horses\".
Please clarify.

[bobphilo]

Beyer had 2 ways to go with this.
1) He could give everyone a poor figure based on the slow final time and the pace handicappers can take this into account and/or adjust for the slow early pace.
2) He can assign figures based on the horses finish relative to each other in relation to their prior figure histories, which would include the affect of the pace, and probably give a better \"as is\" figure for the race (ala Timeform), for those that will not consider pace in later evaluating the race. Which would yield the more \"accurate\" figure will depend on how it is later used.

Beyer went with the 1st method. I wonder how Jerry will do it?

Bob

[miff]

Beyer did not get creative, good for him. The race was very slow, period,because of the ridiculous pace. The race deserves to be looked carefully off of Tuffelburg(a slow Rat) who was right there on the wire due to the 1.16.3 6f.The faster runners never had a chance to run their normal faster figs because the pace was too slow to make any time on the whole.If TG agrees with Beyer the winner gets app 3.5 with the rest in that range depending on ground.Jerry may give a mulligan but slow is slow is slow.

New TG symbol recommended \"V Sl Pace\"


Mike

[Silver Charm]

One Iron please read this carefully. So far this bunch of three year olds when it comes to speed, \"Is what it is\".

I am not the first person to point this out in fact I am the second. Steven Crist did so in his Saturday column in the Daily Racing Form.

Below are the previous to the Derby Tops and the winning Derby Figures of the last six Derby winners. This is in the Archives so please verify if you like.

2001: Monarchos,    Top-1/2--        Derby Fig-1/2
2002: War Emblem,   Top-1--          Derby Fig-Neg 1/2
2003: Funny Cide,   Top-1 1/2--      Derby Fig-1 1/2
2004: Smarty Jones, Top-Neg 3 3/4--  Derby Fig-Neg 1 3/4
2005: Giacomo,      Top 4 1/2--      Derby Fig-1/2
2006: Barbaro,      Top 1 1/2--      Derby Fig-Neg 2 1/2

The significance of the figures above and this years group of three year olds as they stand today is only three contenders have run as fast or faster than a 1 1/2.

Street Sense
Any Given Saturday
Curlin

Now here are the Derby Day odds of the above mentioned winners.

Odds on Derby Day

2001: Monarchos:    10.5-1
2002: War Emblem:   20.5-1
2003: Funny Cide:   12.8-1
2004: Smarty Jones: 4.1-1
2005: Giacomo:      50.3-1
2006: Barbaro:      6.1-1

The odds of these winners somewhat reflects the quality of the fields they faced from the standpoint there appeared to be several others as fast or even faster. Derby Day field size is also a large factor. Once again proving bigger is better.

Nevertheless to assume horses are faster than they have previously performed, when there is no most recent data indicating in fact they are faster, is presumptious.

At the point in time where this years group of three year olds start running fast times on fair race tracks is the point in time when they should and will start getting fast Speed Figures.

[high roller]

2005: Giacomo, Top 4 1/2-- Derby Fig-1/2

does anyone believe that giocomo made a 5 pt top in the derby? absolute garbage. i believe that was the derby card year that jerry had a 25,000 claimer that ran a negative 4

[RICH]

How about hard spuns number off the pair. He had to run 0-1 range, no?

[Silver Charm]

Probably did. The Lands End race was a good one. He would go into the list of three so now its four. Scat Daddy is also very close, or at least he was at two.

But the general points are as follows:

1)There hasn\'t been anybody running a 108-114 Beyer range like in years past. Too many to mention. Much less anybody running a Bellamy Road type figure. As Crist pointed out this crop has barely had anybody crack a 100.

2)Giving the Blue Grass a fast figure is an assumption not supported by historical data or the data from that particular day.

[davidrex]

This seems to be the year trainers and owners are attempting to get their animals to peak for the Derby...plenty of time between races and not taking chances of breakdowns.
Looks like trainers are really falling in line with Rag./brown methodoligy.
No inside information on this theory;just an observation.

[TGJB]

David-- next time I want a capital letter.

Meanwhile, I read the comments on the other board about the Kee 2yo fig, and I can\'t take it any more. Somebody please watch the Expo DVD, then ask Friedman how they came up with that figure.

[Flighted Iron]

I beleieve CQ has run faster than a 1 1/2.

[Silver Charm]

So that is five.

Question why is Nobiz Like Shobiz being positioned as a favorite when there are five horses in the race faster than he is?

And much more professional about their business............

[Flighted Iron]

I personally do not consider Nobiz a threat,however his TG line is decent
and on DR form he has been a consistent performer.I\'m still bucking all
the trends and going with CQ.Best of luck on derby day.