The Wood Was Slow???

[Silver Charm]

Miff wrote

>until that horse \"told\" him,about 8-10 days out, that he could not handle the Wood and then the Derby.

If Pletcher is hearing his horses talking to him now then he is sniffing the same stuff his horses are getting.

Circular Quay is a very small horse who tries very hard when he runs. Conducive to knockout efforts in my opinion. I like the eights weeks rest.

>Major changes to the schedule leading up to the Derby are almost always a negative.

Few trainers have had as many Derby horses as Pletcher. Audibles are understandable in this case.

>AGS might be sitting on an 0 2 X for the derby(not that I believe in that pattern all the time)

See attached Sheet for Monarchos.

https://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/derby2001.pdf

At 10-1 or more on Derby day AGS is a play.

[miff]

Silver,

I liked the Thunder Gulch TG pattern better.Regarding CQ being knocked out because he\'s small, size is irrelevant. Big or small doesn\'t play any part in recuping, they\'re all different in that regard.Good luck with AGS @10-1.

Mike

[fkach]

I like AGS at a price also. His Tampa race was unquestionably one of the best preps this spring and he seemed to be heading in the right direction. You just have to forgive the Wood performance to give him a big shot. Some people will excuse it because he came back so quickly off a big race. I\'m more apt to excuse it because of the sudden change of plans. TP was aiming for the Bluegrass. So I would assume the training was geared for that race. Then he turned around at the last minute and ran one week earlier. I can\'t believe that kind of thing maximizes the chances of getting a high level performance.

I want to see what Street Sense does this week. If he bombs also, I might have some second thoughts about the quality of the Tampa race. But right now, I\'m expecting a very good race from SS Saturday and I plan on using AGS in the Derby.

[flushedstraight]

Fkach,

What\'s your criteria for Street Sense bombing in the BG? Last year he jumped up 7 1/2 pts in the BC off his 3rd place finish at Kee, running a # that looks good enough to win again in 25 days. So if he runs, say, a 6 on the poly this week, and for a trainer known for pointing, is that bombing?

On a side note, it\'s pretty well known that a BC juve champ has never won the derby, but who was the last derby winner that actually raced in the juve BC? I have no clue.

[Sandreadis]

Sea Hero 92??

[RICH]

Street Sense probably ran a 1 or so in his first race back. he should be getting back to that -2 now or get very close to it. Is it possible to run a -2 on a polytrack?

[fkach]

I\'m expecting him to either win or run a game second in decent time. Anything less than that and he better have an excuse.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The interesting fact in this thread is that TGJB didn\'t get involved. I haven\'t reviewed the Wood card yet, but on raw times the Excelsior looks significantly faster to me.

Nobiz beat Sightseeing, who looks a pass for the Derby and it wasn\'t easy. Any Given Saturday is not a bad horse, but trip and regression look to have been factors. (Will leave it to TGraph on the Regression Call.) Taggs good one fought the presumptive Derby Favorite to a game finish in an earlier Wood. Does anyone really think NoBiz\'s Wood compares to Funny Cide\'s?

CtC

Dana666 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Some are saying the Wood wasn\'t a good prep, but
> comparing the times to the handicap race for older
> horses later on, the Wood doesn\'t seem slow at
> all. One would expect the older horses to go
> faster, but it doesn\'t seem they went that much
> faster. Anyone have an idea what T-G number Magna
> Graduate got and what number NoBiz got (and more
> importantly what are par numbers for those
> races)?
>
> Wood: 23.28, 23.98, 23.76, 25.12, 12.44 (1:49.46)
>
> Older
> Stakes: 23.78, 22.22, 23.38, 24.96, 12.70
> (1:48.10)
>
> NoBiz looked very healthy to me and very stout
> like he\'s coming up to the triple crown in a good
> way. He certainly didn\'t look to have spent
> himself at all in the Wood either. Anyone have any
> thoughts on this???

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Maybe a more relevant question is \"How Many Juvenile Winners have run in the Derby?\"

1985 Chief\'s Crown - 3rd
1987 Capote - 16th
1991 Fly So Free - 5th
1992 Arazi - 8th
1994 Brocco - 4th
1995 Timber Country - 3rd
1996 Unbridleds Song - 5th
1998 Favorite Trick - 8th
1999 Answer Lively - 10th
2000 Anees - 13th
2002 Johannesburg - 8th
2004 Action This Day - 6th
2005 Wilko - 6th

2-Thirds
1-Fourth,and
2-Fifths

Not all bad for 13 Derby starters. Heck, I\'m pretty sure Pletcher has at least that many starters in the Derby and may have that many this year. Clearly he is no Ben Jones and just as obviously to win you first have to get into the gate.

flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fkach,
>
> What\'s your criteria for Street Sense bombing in
> the BG? Last year he jumped up 7 1/2 pts in the BC
> off his 3rd place finish at Kee, running a # that
> looks good enough to win again in 25 days. So if
> he runs, say, a 6 on the poly this week, and for a
> trainer known for pointing, is that bombing?
>
> On a side note, it\'s pretty well known that a BC
> juve champ has never won the derby, but who was
> the last derby winner that actually raced in the
> juve BC? I have no clue.