Request for Chuckles and a Whirlaway Comment

[richiebee]

CTC ... compose if you could a short list of horses who have had success in the
Ky Derby by Yums Brands (Gr I) after competing in BOTH Lanes End AND Bluegrass.
And yes I realize that this is the first year both preps will be synthetic.

And then the question is, if you took Shanahan\'s offer to jump on the bandwagon,
is it accurate to say that you would expect HS to be less than wound all the
way tight for the BG? Will the BG be a conditioning run for a colt who might be
considered distance challenged on the sire side?

If Hard Spun runs a huge Derby off 2 synthetic prep races, will we be hearing
a faint bell signaling the end of American dirt racing, where the only tracks
which are running on dirt are the tracks which can\'t afford Poly? I think its a
great thing that the problems racing has had recently, partially created by
chemists masquerading as horse trainers and partially created by an expanded and
diluted gene pool, will all be solved by the magic carpet.

Every time I hear of the Whirlaway and its winner, Summer Doldrums, I reflect
on the big 1/2 favorite in that race, who ran fourth. That favorite has since
been retired to stud after knee problems. The owner is so convinced that his
new stallion will be well received, he has offered to pay owners of worthy
mares who are willing to breed their mares to this new stud.

My take: Summer Doh-ldrums beat a weak field in the Whirly. He got beaten by
TAPs 9th or 10th string in the Gotham. The Wood looks like it will have a short
field featuring Nobiz and Circular Quay, who got an absolutely flawless trip and
ride in the La Derby. Racing on the Inner Course was weak all the way through
this winter, and SD has plenty left to show me to convince me he is a legit
graded runner, not to mention a Derby prospect.

[fkach]

I agree with you totally on SD.

I actually think it would be a bad thing if one of the polytrack Derby preps produced the Derby winner this year. People tend to over react. A single poly-prep winner right off the bat could cause it to become all the rage for preparing for the Derby before we really know if it helps or hurts the horse and the analysis.  

I\'m coming from the other direction on this. I think it\'s idiotic to prepare for the Derby in a polytrack prep because regardless of whether your horse runs well or poorly, you really can\'t be sure where he \"is\" and whether he belongs in the Derby to begin with. The surfaces are different. It\'s already clear that many horses are not equal on both surfaces.

As an owner or trainer why would you want to complicate your own analysis of how well your horse is doing and where he really belongs if you don\'t have to?

I could easily see working your horse out on poly if you think he can get better conditioning that way and/or its safer on him.

But why run a race on it in his final prep for a major dirt race?

[bobphilo]

Great post richiebee. Totally agree that it would be great for racing if a horse who prepped on Poly wins the Derby.
As for it not giving the owner a good line on if they have a Derby contender; true if you have a marginal horse, but if you own a Hard Spun or Street Sense you already know they belong. What better a way to prep for the hard grind of the Triple Crown than on a surface that has a great conditioning effect while keeping your horse's legs safer while doing it?

Bob

[richiebee]

Thank you, Bob, but you failed to catch the slightest vein of cynicism in my
post. I am not quite sold on Synthetic yet, but will keep an open mind. It will
take years IMO to see what the long term effect of Synthetic on Racing will be.

The \"cynic\" within me still adheres to the following beliefs:

1) Synthetic came to pass partially because there are fewer and fewer competent
track superintendents out there;

2) Synthetic came to pass partially because there are fewer and fewer competent
horsemen out there;

3) Synthetic came to pass partially because the thoroughbred gene pool has been
expanded and diluted, creating a horse population which is more and more
fragile;

4) The people who market Synthetic are brilliant, and if part of the marketing
strategy was to personally enrich the people who made the decision to accept
Synthetic without hesitation (I\'m thinking California here) it wouldn\'t
surprise me.

Bob we agree on one thing, at least-- the overall soundness and health of
racehorses should always be the primary focus. I am just reserving my judgment
on whether Synthetic is the answer.

[bobphilo]

Richiebee, I understood the partial cynicism in your post and partly agree. There is no magic bullet to racing\'s problems and those that feel that there is one thing that could do that are mistaken, especially if they use this as an excuse to not deal with other issues like breeding and drugs. However, it will save lives until the other aspects are dealt with and even if they are not, racing is better with it than without it. Insulin does nut cure diabetes but it continues to save lives, even if a cure is never found.
I agree that the first concern for both of us is the health and safety of the horses and riders and I will join you in advocating whatever helps them.

Bob

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Richie I caught your question late and don\'t have the time to make a thorough response, but I am not Johnny Come Lately to Hard Spun. I liked him for some time now and cashed my first Poly wager in over a year upon him. I\'m not against a Danzig with a stout Broodmare Sire and Hard Spun fits that bill.

That said, I\'m not aware of any Lanes End, Bluegrass doubles. You\'re a better historian than I. Have there been some? More importantly, has there been a Lanes End, Blugrass entry...Derby winner scenario? I really dont\' know. I\'m a chaos handicapper though, if there never has been, all the more reason for one to come along. That said, I\'m not altogether sure the Bluegrass is going to be Hard Spuns best race. Its likely a little Bluegrass regression would fit the Derby bill to a T.

Regarding the vanquished Larry the Roman, he was undefeated until that race. I also think Cowtown Cat ran much faster than a 88 in the Gotham. Maybe you know the Tfig for the Gotham. I don\'t. As of this writing, I think Summer Doldrums is going to be extremely competitive in the Wood with the field as currently projected. Circular Quay and Nobiz shouldn\'t scare off an opinion.

Lastly, I\'m a big believer in Pletcher horses peaking early and holding rather than steadily progressing. That was TGraphs contention a couple short years ago and the only horse I can recall on the trail that seemed to break that trend was Bandini. That said I discounted Bandini\'s Bluegrass on Path bias. Still bet him in that Derby, but really felt the Bluegrass was not that much better than most of his previous races. Long story short, Pletcher gets caught up to in the big events by real horseman planning for them. The juice gets a horse running, but it can\'t take him beyond certain limits. To get to those performance levels you need a better horse.

and lastly, lastly, addressing your point, regardless of the eventual demise of polytrack, a good horse is a good horse no matter what nonsense he runs on.

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,33155,33209#msg-33209

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,32898,32957#msg-32957



richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CTC ... compose if you could a short list of
> horses who have had success in the
> Ky Derby by Yums Brands (Gr I) after competing in
> BOTH Lanes End AND Bluegrass.
> And yes I realize that this is the first year both
> preps will be synthetic.
>
> And then the question is, if you took Shanahan\'s
> offer to jump on the bandwagon,
> is it accurate to say that you would expect HS to
> be less than wound all the
> way tight for the BG? Will the BG be a
> conditioning run for a colt who might be
> considered distance challenged on the sire side?
>
> If Hard Spun runs a huge Derby off 2 synthetic
> prep races, will we be hearing
> a faint bell signaling the end of American dirt
> racing, where the only tracks
> which are running on dirt are the tracks which
> can\'t afford Poly? I think its a
> great thing that the problems racing has had
> recently, partially created by
> chemists masquerading as horse trainers and
> partially created by an expanded and
> diluted gene pool, will all be solved by the magic
> carpet.
>
> Every time I hear of the Whirlaway and its winner,
> Summer Doldrums, I reflect
> on the big 1/2 favorite in that race, who ran
> fourth. That favorite has since
> been retired to stud after knee problems. The
> owner is so convinced that his
> new stallion will be well received, he has offered
> to pay owners of worthy
> mares who are willing to breed their mares to this
> new stud.
>
> My take: Summer Doh-ldrums beat a weak field in
> the Whirly. He got beaten by
> TAPs 9th or 10th string in the Gotham. The Wood
> looks like it will have a short
> field featuring Nobiz and Circular Quay, who got
> an absolutely flawless trip and
> ride in the La Derby. Racing on the Inner Course
> was weak all the way through
> this winter, and SD has plenty left to show me to
> convince me he is a legit
> graded runner, not to mention a Derby prospect.

[richiebee]

Ctc:

When I said \"if you jump on the HS bandwagon\", I didn\'t mean you personally. I
know you have been on the HS wagon from the start, if not the driver well at
least in the front seat.

I may have a chance to investigate the 3YOs who have raced in the Lanes End/
Blue Grass/ Ky Derby by Yums on Monday. My feeling is that not many have, but I
could be wrong.

Trainer/owner intent is so important here, and an initial inquiry might be
whether HS needs a money finish in the BG to cement his position in the Derby.
If this is the case, it is fairly simple to see why HS needs to race in the BG.

If HS does not need the earnings to assure his place in the gate for the Derby,
the next logical theory is that trainer Jones believes that HS needs the
additional 9 panel race in terms of fitness to go the 1-1/4 Derby distance.
Nothing wrong with preparation, but if something goes awry with HS in the BG,
trainer Jones and owner Porter will be second guessed for time immemorial.

Maybe trainer Jones and owner Porter are thinking \"Hey, we\'ve got a colt who
likes Poly. We win the Lanes End, we win the Blue Grass (1 million dollar purse,
I think), we skip the Derby (blasphemy!) and shoot for the Preakness and
Travers.\"

The whole Rick Porter quest for the Derby started last year with Rockport
Harbor,a brilliant and flashy grey 3YO of 2005 who was never given enough time
to recover from hoof injuries and came unraveled on the Derby trail. Trainer
John Servis was under a lot of pressure with RH; Servis had trained for Porter
for years, plucking moderately expensive young horses out of yearling sales and
2YO in training sales with decent success. Then in 2004, Servis nearly
took the Triple Crown with Smarty Jones, owned and bred by another of Servis\'
clients, the Chapmans.

In the end, Servis lost Porter\'s horses. One of them, Round Pond, ended up with
Michael Matz and won the BC Distaff after Matz was able to clear up some of
Round Pond\'s hoof problems. Porter has been gracious to point out that it was
Servis who was instrumental in the selection of Hard Spun.

Long story short, Porter has a thirst for a Derby win. One year someone will say
\"We have a nice colt, we won a couple of nice preps, but we are going to sit
out the Derby\", but after the last couple of years, I do not think that Mr.
Porter is that someone.

[Silver Charm]

Try Summer Squall and go from there Ritchie.

However he only had one race underneath him when he went to Turfway so he may have needed a little more work.

Having said that the run in the Lanes End and wait angle hasn\'t exactly been great either. See Event of the Year, Stephen Got Even and Perfect Drift.

Go to the Bluegrass and take the money and prestige and run.

[fkach]

\"As for it not giving the owner a good line on if they have a Derby contender; true if you have a marginal horse, but if you own a Hard Spun or Street Sense you already know they belong.\"

As far as I am concerned, not a single horse in this year\'s Triple Crown chase has run a race good enough to win the Derby yet. I see some great prospects. I fully expect a few to develop further and get more seasoning out of their final preps. However, I see no guarantee that the develoment will occur if they have their final prep over a surface they could hate and thus get little, if anything, out of the race.  

There aren\'t going to be poly preps with all the best prospects that we already know probably belong. There\'s going to be a mix.

Suppose you have a mid-level prospect and he throws in a dud on poly. Now you either don\'t enter the Derby or can\'t because you don\'t have enough earnings. Then weeks later you find out he made an explosive move forward but you didn\'t know about it because he hated poly.

Suppose you have a mid level prospect that explodes forward on poly. Now you enter him a 20 horse field on dirt and he gets buried and is never the same.

I believe you are confusing your desire for safe racing and the \"possibility\" that polytrack delivers all upside and very little downside in that regard, with a sound decision making process for how to best get a horse to the Derby at this point in time.

IMO, this is not the time for experimentation. The only horses I even might consider for Poly in their final prep are:

1. The rare ones that have already demonstrated they are equal on both surfaces.

2. A horse that I know is not Derby material, but that I know loves poly. I might have a chance to steal a Grade 1 prep with a mediocre horse because some of the top level dirt horses could bomb on poly or avoided it totally.

[bobphilo]

fkach,

Not too many Derby winners have run a race as good as their Derby win prior to the big race. It's certainly an unfair standard as to whether a horse belongs in the race. The 2 main BG contenders, Hard Spun and Street Sense and perhaps Great Hunter, have definitely shown they have the ability to at least be competitive.
Yes, I believe that Poly a offers a safer choice for a prospective TC contender, but my feelings for the surface doesn't influence my advice that the owner of a horse who's dirt form is marginal should establish dirt form before going into the Derby.
In the cases of SS and HS, who have already demonstrated their ability, barring some injury, a final prep on the synthetic surface is a wise choice. The fact that they have also shown ability for both surfaces, especially HS, is an added plus.

Bob

[fkach]

bob,

I agree that a poly prep for Hard Spun would be fine at this point. To a lessor extent Street Sense would be fine also because it wouldn\'t be much of an experiment at this point. Their dirt and poly form are both established and good enough to go on either way. That\'s one of the exceptions I identified.

I also agree that most Derby winners haven\'t fired their best shot until the \"big day\". That\'s the goal. But typically they have a nice developing pattern that makes it clear where they fit by the time the final prep is in (other than the occasional dud race on the former odd Keeneland surface or something like that). IMO anything that complicates the analysis of where your horse is and how he is doing before the \"big dance\" is a bad thing because it increases the probability of a poor decision being made. Personally, I think it would be crazy for most top horses to go that route until more is known. I would fire my trainer if he suggested an experiment like that with a legit contender in it\'s final prep. (Obviously I am talking about legit horses here and not the bozos that get entered every year because the connections want to say they had a horse in the Derby)

[cubfan0316]

poly tracks were an excuse for all the horses so called injurys. dodging the REAL TRUTH ABOUT THE INJURYS.    DRUGS. ...

[bobphilo]

Cubfan, You\'re saying that tracks are using poly as an excuse for injuries and that it is, therefore being unfairly blamed. That may be true but I think what you're more likely trying to say is that the tracks are using injuries as an excuse for installing poly rather than dealing with drug issues – which is just the opposite.
In that case, I seriously doubt that track management will magically start cracking down on drug use if they didn't install synthetic surfaces. I also doubt that trainers will suddenly start breeding for sounder horses.  Drugs, breeding and surfaces are all factors in injuries. The ways of dealing with them are not mutually exclusive - the more steps taken the better.
Personally, I don't care a fig what the track's motivation is for installing a safer surface, as long as they do.

Bob