2007 Toyota Blue Grass Stakes

[richiebee]

This will be the first year that this Grade I event will be contested over the
Keeneland Karpet. To me, lots of implications for trainers/owners and Derby
handicappers.

a) If you are an owner trainer who has a solid Derby contender who has not run
previously on synthetic, would you be inclined or disinclined to run over a
synthetic surface prepping for the Derby?

b) If you are a handicapper, would you forgive a poor run over a synthetic
surface for a Derby contender who had previously showed good dirt form?

c) What happens if an unheralded Derby contender (non stake winner, NW2LT,
NW3LT, etc) runs a huge race to win the Blue Grass. Is this an improving horse
or just a horse that loved the carpet, or both?

d) In general how to handle an absolute boom or bust performance in the BG.

e) Curious as to how many animals of all ages came out of a Keeneland race last
fall to win a dirt race at the fall Churchill meet. A miniscule sample, but if
the percentage of next out winners was high, I might be more likely to allow a
good or bad BG to enter my thinking.

[marcus]

richiebee -  some excellent points , Joe Got Even has been an interesting horse and an interesting study for me , prior to the battaglia ( where i\'m guessing he ran another top within a point  ) he had ran his number 5 times at 3 different tracks including one of those being a top effort on dirt at cd .

personally speaking imo -  \'joe\'s development curve is unusual and i expected him to move forward well before he finally did  2 races back - but if everything is ok , maybe he\'s one to fire a big number this fall in the bc becouse it seems like he\'s definately not in a big rush to do it now ...

[NoCarolinaTony]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This will be the first year that this Grade I
> event will be contested over the
> Keeneland Karpet. To me, lots of implications for
> trainers/owners and Derby
> handicappers.
>
> a) If you are an owner trainer who has a solid
> Derby contender who has not run
> previously on synthetic, would you be inclined or
> disinclined to run over a
> synthetic surface prepping for the Derby?

This is Keeneland after all, and the home of the bloodstock industry. They will be there to run.

>
> b) If you are a handicapper, would you forgive a
> poor run over a synthetic
> surface for a Derby contender who had previously
> showed good dirt form?

Did it last year at the BC. Street Sense finished third in the Lanes End at KEE and we know what he did at CD.


>
> c) What happens if an unheralded Derby contender
> (non stake winner, NW2LT,
> NW3LT, etc) runs a huge race to win the Blue
> Grass. Is this an improving horse
> or just a horse that loved the carpet, or both?

Not going to happen. We also saw Asi Siempre run Big on the Carpet and the dirt last year. This is racing after all.
>
> d) In general how to handle an absolute boom or
> bust performance in the BG.

The same way you handled Sinister Minister last year.
>
> e) Curious as to how many animals of all ages came
> out of a Keeneland race last
> fall to win a dirt race at the fall Churchill
> meet. A miniscule sample, but if
> the percentage of next out winners was high, I
> might be more likely to allow a
> good or bad BG to enter my thinking.

I will have someone run the stats and will let you know.

NC Tony

[fkach]

>a) If you are an owner trainer who has a solid Derby contender who has not run
previously on synthetic, would you be inclined or disinclined to run over a
synthetic surface prepping for the Derby? <

I would never even consider running over it. I would not want to lose my ability to evaluate his current form on dirt. How could I tell if he belonged in the Derby or not and what kind of traning he needed for the race unless he was equally good on both surfaces.

>b) If you are a handicapper, would you forgive a poor run over a synthetic
surface for a Derby contender who had previously showed good dirt form? <

I would forgive it, but I would still require some extra margin of safety in my required odds because you can\'t be 100% certain it was the surface.

>c) What happens if an unheralded Derby contender (non stake winner, NW2LT,
NW3LT, etc) runs a huge race to win the Blue Grass. Is this an improving horse
or just a horse that loved the carpet, or both?<

You can\'t really know. You can only look for clues in the WOs, pedigree, trainer method etc...

>d) In general how to handle an absolute boom or bust performance in the BG.<

As in \"C\", case by case, but it\'s an obviously complicating issue. I would tend to disregard the race though.

[flushedstraight]

Aside from the occasional War Emblems & Charismatics, the value plays in the derby are often coming off sub-par efforts so forgiving a regression on the carpet for a fat price is business as usual. Consider BG Cat, Closing Argument, Invisible Ink all cracking the Derby exacta recently at big odds off losing efforts in the Bluegrass specifically, and going back the nineties, there were champs Thunder Gulch & Sea Hero overlooked after losing at Keeneland.  That was all on the quirky dirt, but don\'t see any reason why angle shouldn\'t apply to a prep on synthetic as well.

What I will view differently this year is if there is the huge effort in the BG; the last two years it seemed to knock them out. At this point I\'m under the impression that the poly is much more forgiving, so if there is a big # run I\'m giving it a long look.

[marcus]

flushedstraight - what your saying makes perfect sense to me and one always needs to get their price - that much certainly hasn\'t changed ... imo , last years bg winner probably bounces off that huge effort on relatively short rest next time out irregardless of the type or condition of the racing surface ...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

very interesting post richie

For now, I\'m leaning towards tossing all Poly surface results, with the exception of todays Lanes End. But speaking of poly Lanes End winners. Remember last years winner and what became of him?

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> This will be the first year that this Grade I
> event will be contested over the
> Keeneland Karpet. To me, lots of implications for
> trainers/owners and Derby
> handicappers.
>
> a) If you are an owner trainer who has a solid
> Derby contender who has not run
> previously on synthetic, would you be inclined or
> disinclined to run over a
> synthetic surface prepping for the Derby?
>
> b) If you are a handicapper, would you forgive a
> poor run over a synthetic
> surface for a Derby contender who had previously
> showed good dirt form?
>
> c) What happens if an unheralded Derby contender
> (non stake winner, NW2LT,
> NW3LT, etc) runs a huge race to win the Blue
> Grass. Is this an improving horse
> or just a horse that loved the carpet, or both?
>
> d) In general how to handle an absolute boom or
> bust performance in the BG.
>
> e) Curious as to how many animals of all ages came
> out of a Keeneland race last
> fall to win a dirt race at the fall Churchill
> meet. A miniscule sample, but if
> the percentage of next out winners was high, I
> might be more likely to allow a
> good or bad BG to enter my thinking.