Polytrack Question for TGJB

[BitPlayer]

TGJB -

You have frequently posted on this site that you make your figures off the horses and that, after this method is used for a while, your database gets tighter and tighter.  Now that you\'ve been making figures on several poly- or cushion- track surfaces for a while, I wonder if you can shed some light (without giving away any proprietary information) on how you are going about the start-up process with those surfaces.

For example, did you use dirt or (generally slower) turf figures as a starting point?  After the surface has been in use for a while, do you do races off all of the horses, or primarily off those that have run over the surface?  Given the limited data set and the minimal maintenance the surface receives (except in California), did you start by assuming very little change in the speed of the surface?  Are Turfway figures useful for the Keeneland surface and vice versa, or is each surface pretty unique?  Have you noticed the database getting tighter?

Thanks as always.

BitPlayer

[TGJB]

Bit-- first of all, betting on poly and making figures for it are two different things. Betting it, for me, has been tricky, where figure making has been pretty straightforward-- I do it the same as for any other surface. I made no assumptions about it staying the same speed, and in fact have found that it is more changeable than dirt, which may have to do with shade/temperature changes that cause contraction of the molecules. Or not. But it definitely changes.

Grass horses definitely handle synthetic tracks better than they handle dirt. But all that means is that you have more \"data points\" to work with in a race-- to oversimplify, you make figures off the horses who run well in a race, not those that throw in \"X\'s\". I had no preconceived notions going in about how horses would handle the surface, and don\'t look at what they have run their prior figures over when makling the figures. I do when betting off them.

[sighthound]

\" ... and in fact have found that it is more changeable than dirt, which may have to do with shade/temperature changes that cause contraction of the molecules.\"

I imagine the wax coating would respond quickly to relatively small environmental temperature change, either firming up or softening.  Any chemists here?

[miff]

From people racing in California:

The poly track at Hollywood got substantially tighter/faster during cool days and raw times were faster.During hot humid days poly got cuppy and slower and produced slowish raw times.

This seems to fit what Jerry found although he did not say if he deduced this from observation of figs or some other way.Is poly simply contracting in cold and expanding in heat? What does water and wind do to poly. What does track maintenance do to poly.

Tough for me to gamble on that surface right now.Almost all the players I know are being \"carried out\" at poly venues.A very sharp and successful TG sheet player in California spoke of \"too many chaotic results\" including slower horses outrunning much faster runners all to often.I have certainly seen slower runners on dirt tracks have their day but not consistently over an entire meet.

The last thing I read was that certain \"nickel\" bred horses were outrunning royally bred horses over a sampling of 4000 poly runners.I think that may be a statistical oddity more than anything else but who knows.


Mike

[bobphilo]

sighthound Wrote:
------------------------------------------------------->
> I imagine the wax coating would respond quickly to
> relatively small environmental temperature change,
> either firming up or softening.  Any chemists
> here?
>

That sounds reasonable. Plus, rubber is very susceptible to changes in state and texture with temperature changes.

Bob

[sighthound]

Another thing I recall from reading about poly/cushion (I think regarding the poly at Woodbine and Turfway and adjustments to installed product) is that the thickness and composition of the coating wax can be changed (the top couple of inches of product replaced if necessary) to deal with weather extremes, and resulting in a tighter, faster track.

When Kee did their installation, the mfr rep dealing with news media made a point of mentioning that all \"Polytrack brand\" tracks in the US would not be the same (composition different).  Allows handicappers to maintain knowledge of particular track biases.

Wonder if the main track at Kee is different from the training track composition, and how Turfway and Woodbine differ from that. Propietary info, I\'m sure.

[colin]

I am suffering from Polytrack depression. I can\'t bet these tracks until I feel everyone has some kind of form over it. Otherwise Keeneland\'s and Hollywood\'s meets are just one race after another of horses trying a new surface for the first time. We all have an advantage here of using Jerry\'s numbers but I feel it is lost on Polytrack. Can\'t wait for Gulfstream E